Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tony73]

If Tesla grows 20% annualized production for the next 5 years, then they will be producing 5 million cars annually then. Or if they grow closer to 30%, they will get there around 4 years.

If Tesla is only selling 5 million cars in 4-5 years, something has gone wrong.
It would mean gen3 has terribly underperformed or 3/Y sales have collapsed.
Minimum expectation for gen3 should be at least 4 million once the initial set of factories are ramped. If the 3/Y platform can sell 1.7 million in 2023, gen3 should be able to do at least 4 million in 2028/29.
Conservatively add 2 million for 3/Y, 250k for cybertruck and 100k for S/X and you ‘re looking at 6.35 million.

 

[MC3OZ]

If Tesla is only selling 5 million cars in 4-5 years, something has gone wrong.

The stated aim of the mission is 20 million EVs per year by 2030...

5 million EVs is per year 2028 would be falling a long way short of the target..

I would not extrapolate the growth rate when "between growth waves" to be the long term trend,,,

The phrase "between growth waves" is a clue, and I don't think the next growth wave is starting in 2030.

 

[Singuy]

Just to put things in perspective.

Both Toyota and Hyundais has roughly the same ratio when compared to luxury brand cars.
This ratio is about 12:1, meaning they sell 12x more Toyotas than Lexus, Hyundais than Genesis. Honda/Acura is about 9:1, Nissan/Infiniti about 19:1

I believe Elon used that data to extrapolate the total demand and sales for a 25k car. If Tesla's luxury/premium segment sold 2M, then their entry level segment should X10ish this number, which puts them at 20M. He didn't pull this number out of his arse, but based on the OVER performance of Tesla's premium segment. Like I said, they sold more than BMW's entire lineup with just 2 car models (and yet the entire twitterverse thinks Tesla under performed due to Elon's mouth...no one looks at objective data).

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1767430314924847579

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1767430314924847579

FSD program has been a series of hitting local maximas requiring architectural changes, then quicker improvements for a while. Usually with two steps forward, one step back. We can assume that with V12 the first few updates will bring large improvements before it flattens out again. And from the sounds of it we are seeing a greatly increased rate of improvements with many issues being solved for each release… The big question is if there is some known major problem which is not one or two releases away.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1767430314924847579

At this point, can we skip v13? No need to borrow perceived trouble...

 

[hobbes]

Power is back:

Tesla Grünheide: Edeka und Gigafactory haben wieder Strom – wann startet Produktion?

Fast eine Woche nach dem Brandanschlag steht die Tesla Gigafactory in Grünheide wieder unter Strom, Edeka ebenfalls. Wann startet die Produktion?

www-moz-de.translate.goog

 

[Maarten]

Tesla Insurance is open and clear that they look at driving behaviour for risk assessment and your monthly car insurance cost is related to that.
So, you can benefit from neat driving behaviour.

It appears that other brands do the same, but in a sneaky way.
Ever heard of LexisNexis Risk Solutions?
Brands like GM, Kia, Mitsubishi, Hyundai (“Driving Score”), Honda and Acura (“Driver Feedback”) send driving data to this company.
Which sells this data to insurance companies.
And that can lead to unpleasant surprises.

 

[jamaatta]

Model Y deliveries starts in Malaysia.

"Tesla Model Y deliveries started in Malaysia. Model Y reservation holders in Malaysia finally received their orders after nearly 8 months of waiting."

"When it was launched in Malaysia, the Model Y achieved two significant milestones, including securing 10,000 orders four days after Tesla opened the order banks."

Tesla Model Y deliveries start in Malaysia

Tesla Model Y deliveries started in Malaysia. Reservation holders in Malaysia finally received their orders after nearly 8 months of waiting.

www.teslarati.com

 

[Mengy]

Soooo, speculation on wether tesla will best 2 million vehicles this year?

I know most people here think that's a sure thing, that Tesla will 100% produce over 2 million vehicles this year, but I think it will be close.

Say Troy Teslike is correct and Q1 comes in at 450K, we'd need to see something like Q2=500K, Q3=525K, Q4=550K for the rest of the year in order to get over the 2 million mark. Q2 basically matches Q4 2023, and then it's 5% growth for Q3 and Q4 to do 2 million. That growth would likely come from Austin and Berlin increasing production along with a little bit from the CT line. That's doable as long as there aren't any hiccups along the way.

So it really comes down to how fast Austin, Berlin, and the CT can ramp for 2024.

 

[Usain]

FSD program has been a series of hitting local maximas requiring architectural changes, then quicker improvements for a while. Usually with two steps forward, one step back. We can assume that with V12 the first few updates will bring large improvements before it flattens out again. And from the sounds of it we are seeing a greatly increased rate of improvements with many issues being solved for each release… The big question is if there is some known major problem which is not one or two releases away.

I think it will be a very long time before we hit another local maxima. In fact, I think the next limiting factor will be the hardware.

End-to-end architecture should get us to robotaxi.

 

[nativewolf]

I do agree with the numbers @Zaddy Daddy presents and what that means in real time offers reasonable data, up to a point. I balk at any attempt to use those numbers as a crystal ball to predict the future with enough certainty to bet upon.

Most of what was presented starts out on firm ground, then ventures off with an air of importance onto thin ICE, so to speak. This is the realm of technical analysis, which is not too far removed from Voodoo. At least for me. Maybe some people can crunch enough numbers to make a trail of breadcrumbs to bet on successfully. Most investors do not have the necessary background in complex mathematics to discern useful results.

Predicting the future is always a tricky business.

Fortunately, Tesla is growing in both width and height, as @unk45 posted above. They are going strong in so many directions that this won't fit traditional models for analysis. Most seem to see this part or that part clearly, but rarely do you see any one of them taking it all in.

Cathie Wood is one exception that comes to mind, and she has struggled with predicting the timeline.

@Zaddy Daddy does not seem to be putting all the ingredients into his recipe for evaluating Tesla, and then expecting to determine the elusive "when" that so many grapple with.

Cathie struggles because her models are looney. Have you actually read them? absolutely nonsense.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

If Tesla is only selling 5 million cars in 4-5 years, something has gone wrong.
It would mean gen3 has terribly underperformed or 3/Y sales have collapsed.
Minimum expectation for gen3 should be at least 4 million once the initial set of factories are ramped. If the 3/Y platform can sell 1.7 million in 2023, gen3 should be able to do at least 4 million in 2028/29.
Conservatively add 2 million for 3/Y, 250k for cybertruck and 100k for S/X and you ‘re looking at 6.35 million.

The stated aim of the mission is 20 million EVs per year by 2030...

5 million EVs is per year 2028 would be falling a long way short of the target..

I would not extrapolate the growth rate when "between growth waves" to be the long term trend,,,

The phrase "between growth waves" is a clue, and I don't think the next growth wave is starting in 2030.

Well growth looks to be under the average 20-30% for this year and maybe next.

This year might see 10% growth (1.8 to 2 million). Next year might be 15% (2 to 2.3 million). Then lets say the next 3 are 30% (2026 - ramping Gen 3), 40%, 50% - that gets you to 6 million. Definitely seem possible.

 

[Cult Member]

Power is back:

Tesla Grünheide: Edeka und Gigafactory haben wieder Strom – wann startet Produktion?

Fast eine Woche nach dem Brandanschlag steht die Tesla Gigafactory in Grünheide wieder unter Strom, Edeka ebenfalls. Wann startet die Produktion?

www-moz-de.translate.goog

Good to see that even the 19 Supercharger stalls are on today. There seems to be no need to save power.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Ever heard of LexisNexis Risk Solutions?

Yes, I get spam from them, or purporting to be from them.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1767528615007113521

 

[Singuy]

FSD program has been a series of hitting local maximas requiring architectural changes, then quicker improvements for a while. Usually with two steps forward, one step back. We can assume that with V12 the first few updates will bring large improvements before it flattens out again. And from the sounds of it we are seeing a greatly increased rate of improvements with many issues being solved for each release… The big question is if there is some known major problem which is not one or two releases away.

Watch there are no more release notes because the AI is doing the programing so they are not 100% sure what the AI wrote besides enabling new features such as reverse or self parking.

 

[mongo]

Watch there are no more release notes because the AI is doing the programing so they are not 100% sure what the AI wrote besides enabling new features such as reverse or self parking.

Humans will still be adding the training data, test data, and monitoring the real world performance on the internal fleet to control and validate improvements.

They'll know the "what", if not the "how".

 

[DarkandStormy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1767428341181624672

 

[EverettRuess]

Tesla Insurance is open and clear that they look at driving behaviour for risk assessment and your monthly car insurance cost is related to that.
So, you can benefit from neat driving behaviour.

It appears that other brands do the same, but in a sneaky way.
Ever heard of LexisNexis Risk Solutions?
Brands like GM, Kia, Mitsubishi, Hyundai (“Driving Score”), Honda and Acura (“Driver Feedback”) send driving data to this company.
Which sells this data to insurance companies.
And that can lead to unpleasant surprises.

I never had an accident until I bought my Model Y two years ago. Then waiting at a light I was rear ended. Fixed at a Tesla certified shop. Then six months ago I hit a deer. Fixed at the new collision center in SLC. Two accidents on my record caused Tesla to quote me a premium $1000 a year higher then State Farm.