Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

@Krugerrand as someone that does lots of modeling, or did before I actually went back into the field, the problem I have about Ark is that the model is crap. She got lucky in that the point event turned out to have happened but not for the reasons she predicted. The model is bunka junka. Given enough time can nearly everything happen? Sure. It's not why we create models and getting lucky doesn't mean anything about the model is well founded. EVs got hot, everyone wanted to be Tesla, stock shot up. It was not rational and that is a big part of why TSLA has moved sideways.

All of her models are junk IMO. She literally makes stuff up, there is no rigor. I hope you're not actually Cathy. If so my apologies for calling you a whacko.

And everyone else was wrong for all the wrong reasons. That’s the whole point. Like what’s his face, that professor whose name starts with a D. His model was junk too and he’s supposed to know what he’s talking about. Nobody’s model has been correct but you all just keep making them and/or believing this person’s or that person’s and calling those that differ from your reality, junk. At least Andrea and Cathy got the outcome correct. It’s literally more than anyone else in the entire industry.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Tesla, Ford Receive ‘Poor’ Grades in Study of Driver-Assist Technology

The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety’s ratings of the systems—which automate steering and speed—prod automakers to improve safeguards.

finance.yahoo.com

Yay, we're not alone anymore!

 

[Krugerrand]

You're focused on the share price / market cap, and I'm talking about the underlying assumptions. Just because she was right on the share price once does not mean she has been correct on the underlying assumptions about what got it there. Far from it.

Their published bear case price target (split adjusted) for 2025 is $500/share. Their published bull case price target is $1,333/share. Their average is $1,000/share. I guess you never say never, but...

And again, their *bear case* has Tesla doing 5m units next year for $234bn in auto revenue, $23bn in insurance revenue, $42bn in human ride share network (as a precursor to robotaxis, something Tesla has never publicly mentioned), with 43% total gross margins, for something like $100bn in net income.

Feel free to refer back to this post in January 2026 to see how close they were.

Why do you care so much how Tesla or TSLA gets there? Is it because you want to make money on the churn, on the lies? Or that you simply can’t wrap your brain around how it all ends?

It is of no consequence to me how Tesla gets to the goal. It only matters that they get there. That’s how I think as a long term investor. I leave the heavy lifting up to the people at Tesla.

I believe they know what they’re doing given historical data. I don’t expect them to suddenly get it all wrong and blow the company up. I expect them to carry on, drive efficiencies, push innovation, bravely try what no other company would dare try, and fully expect the company to become world dominating flipping every industry they enter on its head.

 

[Oveeus]

Yes, this.
TSLA > $350 and I’d be getting one now too.

I think US is where you'd see this.

We still have ZERO CT delivery so far in Canada AFAIK, and the big news here, for me at least is that they included Canada into the plan.

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla, Ford Receive ‘Poor’ Grades in Study of Driver-Assist Technology

The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety’s ratings of the systems—which automate steering and speed—prod automakers to improve safeguards.

finance.yahoo.com

Yay, we're not alone anymore!

For people not interested in the pay-walled article, here is a link to the IIHS information directly:

First partial driving automation safeguard ratings show industry has work to do

Only one of 14 partial driving automation systems evaluated earns an acceptable rating for its safeguards designed to prevent misuse and lapses of attention.

www.iihs.org

And the ratings:

Partial automation safeguard ratings

The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) is an independent, nonprofit scientific and educational organization dedicated to reducing deaths, injuries and property damage from motor vehicle crashes through research and evaluation and through education of consumers, policymakers and safety...

www.iihs.org

The Tesla ratings, on an old version:

 

[mongo]

For people not interested in the pay-walled article, here is a link to the IIHS information directly:

First partial driving automation safeguard ratings show industry has work to do

Only one of 14 partial driving automation systems evaluated earns an acceptable rating for its safeguards designed to prevent misuse and lapses of attention.

www.iihs.org

Important note: "In some cases, manufacturers are already making changes to their systems through software updates, which may result in adjustments to these ratings. The two Tesla systems evaluated, for example, used software that preceded the most recent recall in December 2023."

 

[AudubonB]

I’m looking for a used one, too. Thank you for the support.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Do you think Elon’s opinions, pissing people off, is a significant factor for Tesla demand?

Significant? No. But it has an affect, or at least with some we have talked to. On the other hand it may draw a few from the other side as well. Hard to say. Elon is going to Elon. Kinda wish he would tone it down but that ain’t gonna happen.

All jmho.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Why do you care so much how Tesla or TSLA gets there? Is it because you want to make money on the churn, on the lies? Or that you simply can’t wrap your brain around how it all ends?

It is of no consequence to me how Tesla gets to the goal. It only matters that they get there. That’s how I think as a long term investor. I leave the heavy lifting up to the people at Tesla.

I believe they know what they’re doing given historical data. I don’t expect them to suddenly get it all wrong and blow the company up. I expect them to carry on, drive efficiencies, push innovation, bravely try what no other company would dare try, and fully expect the company to become world dominating flipping every industry they enter on its head.

This is a very strange response to "Ark Invest publishes bad models."

Cheers.

 

[capster]

… I think (big) investors will remain pessimistic about the revenue potential of autonomy right up until it's bringing in revenues to the bottom line.

The big money is perfectly aware of Tesla’s potential in general and that of robotaxis in particular.

No way will the Street wait till revenues hit the bottom line. Yes, the FUD will continue as will their best efforts to run down the share price.

Then…BAM!!…the next leg up will hit and devil take the hindmost.

How long will the Street keep trying to shake shares out of weak hands before they clear their short positions and try to grab as many shares as they can? I suspect it’s sooner than you seem to think and those that wait for the revenues to hit the bottom line will miss out, but like you I’ll just continue to hold and not worry too much about it.

 

[Tony73]

Optimus is second on my list for the potential for being able to ramp up quickly and provide staggering margins. Likewise, targeting industrial/commercial customers rather than retail.

Optimus unlike FSD/Autonomous driving will have significant competition.
Plenty of companies in the U.S. and China will get into this field. Boston Dynamics is not the competition; it’s the startups backed by Amazon, Google, Huawei and Alibaba. Tesla will not have the data advantage it has in FSD. There are thousands of use cases for Optimus most of which are simpler than driving and less safety critical.
Tesla will be one of many winners but
I seriously doubt anyone will be able to maintain “staggering” margins in this area.

 

[phantasms]

Do you think Elon’s opinions, pissing people off, is a significant factor for Tesla demand?

A certain small percentage of people will not buy a Tesla because of Elon. Sure a certain smaller group might like Elon more but they're generally more inclined to think "EVs are a bad fix for a problem that doesn't exist and they're worse for the environment than ICE"
A certain small percentage of people will not buy a 3 because there are no stalks. I personally like the new controls but def not for everyone.
A certain small percentage of people will not buy a Y because there's obviously an update in the works.
A certain small percentage of people will not buy an S because it still somehow has a ton of design and manufacturing flaws.
A certain small percentage of people will not buy a Tesla because there's no USS.
A certain small percentage of people will not buy TSLA or will sell TSLA because of Elon.
and on
and on

All these small percentages add up to Tesla needlessly shooting itself in the foot during a time where there are finally other EVs that are starting to get interesting. I still hold a ton of TSLA but thinking everything is perfect and Elon is a god isn't going to fix things...or fix brokerage account balances.

 

[elasalle]

A certain small percentage of people will not buy a Tesla because of Elon. Sure a certain smaller group might like Elon more but they're generally more inclined to think "EVs are a bad fix for a problem that doesn't exist and they're worse for the environment than ICE"
A certain small percentage of people will not buy a 3 because there are no stalks. I personally like the new controls but def not for everyone.
A certain small percentage of people will not buy a Y because there's obviously an update in the works.
A certain small percentage of people will not buy an S because it still somehow has a ton of design and manufacturing flaws.
A certain small percentage of people will not buy a Tesla because there's no USS.
A certain small percentage of people will not buy TSLA or will sell TSLA because of Elon.
and on
and on

All these small percentages add up to Tesla needlessly shooting itself in the foot during a time where there are finally other EVs that are starting to get interesting. I still hold a ton of TSLA but thinking everything is perfect and Elon is a god isn't going to fix things...or fix brokerage account balances.

and a small percentage of (new) people will buy TSLA shares, cars because of Elon ...

 

[capster]

I agree, BUT, I also feel this "something wonderful" is going to happen quite a bit later now than most of us expected it would. Meaning robotaxis of course.

I honestly do expect Optimus to start contributing substantially to revenues before robotaxi's do, but still not for a few years.

Elon tweeted not that long ago that training compute was the limiting factor for FSD and they were on their way to resolving that.

Tesla seems to be iterating Optimus generations at about every 6 to 8 months. We’re about due for another one now and could see a second this year.

Some folks here, ahem, seem to be anticipating linear progress; others may be plotting s-curves. I’m projecting discontinuities.

 

[Krugerrand]

This is a very strange response to "Ark Invest publishes bad models."

Cheers.

It’s not any stranger than you calling her method junk, when she is only one of two analysts that got the outcome correct.

It’s not any stranger than you supporting your own method, a copy of every other analyst, all wrong in their method AND in the outcome.

How about you come up with the method that gets to the correct answer? Be the person on the planet who gets it right from start to finish.

 

[Krugerrand]

A certain small percentage of people will not buy a Tesla because of Elon. Sure a certain smaller group might like Elon more but they're generally more inclined to think "EVs are a bad fix for a problem that doesn't exist and they're worse for the environment than ICE"
A certain small percentage of people will not buy a 3 because there are no stalks. I personally like the new controls but def not for everyone.
A certain small percentage of people will not buy a Y because there's obviously an update in the works.
A certain small percentage of people will not buy an S because it still somehow has a ton of design and manufacturing flaws.
A certain small percentage of people will not buy a Tesla because there's no USS.
A certain small percentage of people will not buy TSLA or will sell TSLA because of Elon.
and on
and on

All these small percentages add up to Tesla needlessly shooting itself in the foot during a time where there are finally other EVs that are starting to get interesting. I still hold a ton of TSLA but thinking everything is perfect and Elon is a god isn't going to fix things...or fix brokerage account balances.

Or, all the small percentages are from the same small percentage group and not separate individuals.

Nobody ever said Elon was god. You and those like you keep repeating that lie.

The facts are that Tesla keeps expanding at breakneck speed, while being cash flow positive and, and, and. More foot shooting Tesla, please.

 

[Linkmeup]

Heyyy folkss...hope everyone is well here...just doing a vibe check...

 

[Krugerrand]

Heyyy folkss...hope everyone is well here...just doing a vibe check...

Vibe is par for the course. It’s cyclical. Too low SP and Tesla, Elon, and long term investors become spit targets.

 

[Linkmeup]

Vibe is par for the course. It’s cyclical. Too low SP and Tesla, Elon, and long term investors become spit targets.

I am TSLA Motor Forums user #1723849141649713413413418 and want to say:

 

[growler23]

VIbe check response: still HODLing, still believing, and pulled some cash for a few more chairs just below 180 last week. Hoping for some upward action before end of 2025 for personal reasons, but will not have to sell if that time comes and goes.
Methinks our problem is timescale. We post and complain on a minutes-to-days timescale. Tesla achieves global milestones on a months-to-years timescale. There seems to be an order of magnitude gear ratio mismatch here