Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Seeing how many ICE vehicles are still being sold reminds me of the opportunity. This couldn't be unfolding any better for Tesla.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Looks like AJ missed the memo about the wave having been unwound.
This is at least the 3rd time it's being explained here- but those numbers are essentially indicating no growth at all in the EU YoY for Q1.
Q1 2023, only 1/3rd of deliveries was Jan+Feb due to the wave dumping 2/3rds of deliveries into March.
Since mid-2023 the distribution of deliveries was much nearer 1/3rd each month in the EU.
Meaning you'd expect 2/3rds, not 1/3rd, of all Q1 deliveries in Jan+Feb this year....and only 1/3rd of deliveries in March.
Which is exactly what those #s show thus far.
Zangler is out with a very informative video on the Semi.
His main point is that unlike the other cars the Semi is dependent on external suppliers. And they are not much interested in small numbers like the Semi has needed until now. So Tesla got to ramp it up to get decent supplies.
Another point is that the Semi only need a short assembly line with about 5 stations. And he belive the current prototype building have room for 4-5 lines. Where Tesla can start a modest production while waiting for the main new building to get operational.
Apart from that - many pretty pics from inside the Semi factory - well worth a look:
His main point is that unlike the other cars the Semi is dependent on external suppliers. And they are not much interested in small numbers like the Semi has needed until now. So Tesla got to ramp it up to get decent supplies.
Another point is that the Semi only need a short assembly line with about 5 stations. And he belive the current prototype building have room for 4-5 lines. Where Tesla can start a modest production while waiting for the main new building to get operational.
Apart from that - many pretty pics from inside the Semi factory - well worth a look:
The last week-ish has been pretty good for Mr Musk. First Starship had a 90% success and test 4 is on the horizon. Second the rollout of V 13 has been getting rave reviews . Third Tesla is beginning to hire for Optimus production. Fourth, the interview with a quadriplegic who has had a Nuralink implant. I doubt if anyone else has had this level of success in the last week.
JusRelax
Active Member
Watching from 1:22:00 is amazing to me... it incorrectly thinks it's in a right turn lane (behind parked cars) for a while, but after over a minute of just waiting there, someone gets out of the car in front of the Tesla and as a result of seeing the person get out of the car, FSD Beta immediately recognizes it's a parked car and prepares to go around it.
Hardly exactly.
A flat delivery curve requires turning Jan-Feb from 1/3 into 2/3 which is a doubling YoY, not a 33% increase...
Jato says 91.2k 3&Y in Europe for Q1 2023
2023: 28k Jan-Feb is 31%, basically 1/3
2024: 37k Jan-Feb being 2/3 implies 56k total for Q1
A flat Q1 YoY of 91k would have required Jan-Feb to be 61k. As it is, 37k would be less than half the quarter's deliveries (41%).
Either Q1 will really suck, or deliveries are still not flat.
Beyond the raw math, the factories are lumpy. Shanghai is impacted by New Year's and Berlin was impacted by shipping delays. Of course, March has Berlin production being impacted by loss of power.
23: Jan: 9k Feb: 19k, +10k MoM
24: Jan: 15k Feb: 22k, +7k MoM
Krugerrand
Meow
So I’ve been hearing for a decade how Tesla needs to, has to, is responsible for educating people about EVs.
First, no they do not, no they are not, but yes they have been all along - they just aren’t educating people in the traditional OEM way.
Secondly, ‘we’ (the community) have been educating people since the start about EVs and Tesla quite specifically. No other company remotely of Tesla’s type, that I’m aware of, has ever grown via word of mouth like Tesla.
There have been thousands of posts on this forum alone about people speaking with family, friends, coworkers, neighbors, and complete strangers about Tesla, about EVs - numerous times. My spouse walked into a podunk, middle of nowhere, small country business store yesterday that’s doing a quote for The Mountain, and spent the first 15 minutes answering questions about our 3, Tesla, charging, range, etc… That was educating people who wanted to learn. Turned out the office manager’s brother in-law is getting a Y. Also was revealed nobody had heard about CT. They have now.
While that was going on, I spent 8hrs on the road with my GC going to and from another business quoting for The Mountain - guess what we talked about for a good chunk of that time.Here we are on a forum of far more EV educated people and still people arguing Tesla needs to have a SC on every corner.
Next they’ll be arguing Tesla needs a Supercharger on every corner. Neither are close to being true, but we’ll just have to wait for more time to pass to prove it out, though I’m sure a new argument will surface along the way.Factually, you can’t teach people who aren’t ready, willing, and able to learn no matter how correct, logical, or reasonable you are. They cannot hear. They can not learn.
Captkerosene
Member
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
So I’ve been hearing for a decade how Tesla needs to, has to, is responsible for educating people about EVs.
First, no they do not, no they are not, but yes they have been all along - they just aren’t educating people in the traditional OEM way.
Secondly, ‘we’ (the community) have been educating people since the start about EVs and Tesla quite specifically. No other company remotely of Tesla’s type, that I’m aware of, has ever grown via word of mouth like Tesla.
There have been thousands of posts on this forum alone about people speaking with family, friends, coworkers, neighbors, and complete strangers about Tesla, about EVs - numerous times. My spouse walked into a podunk, middle of nowhere, small country business store yesterday that’s doing a quote for The Mountain, and spent the first 15 minutes answering questions about our 3, Tesla, charging, range, etc… That was educating people who wanted to learn. Turned out the office manager’s brother in-law is getting a Y. Also was revealed nobody had heard about CT. They have now.
Here we are on a forum of far more EV educated people and still people arguing Tesla needs to have a SC on every corner.
Factually, you can’t teach people who aren’t ready, willing, and able to learn no matter how correct, logical, or reasonable you are. They cannot hear. They can not learn.
I would add to this how the most effective way to move people toward a purchase decision is to make it so blatantly obvious how a particular product is absolutely, beyond any doubt, the best value on as many fronts as possible. Then, all that has to happen is a mention by a friend, or other introduction to the product, even in the form of FUD, that leads the buyer to learn something new.
Tesla products tick all the boxes for economy, safety, reliability, and "the biggie," keeping money in one's wallet over the lifetime of the vehicle, which is considerably longer than ICE owners are accustomed to.
Once someone peers into the Rabbit Hole it is unlikely they will come out again without having at least a seed planted in their mind that there may be something unique about these Tesla vehicles. Preparing their head space to learn more.
The whole Market is up today and some idiot is trying to short TSLA? Smarter people are buying those up and will leave nothing laying around later on. This is where it can get hard for them and their silly games... then lose it all when it keeps rising (and not "if").
Max Pain is still only 170, so I debated selling my usual 25. But it's got some new life and hard to sell anything with all this good news coming out. I do want some buying power for post Q1 P&D. But I will wait for better... TSLA is so undervalued it's ridiculous.
Max Pain is still only 170, so I debated selling my usual 25. But it's got some new life and hard to sell anything with all this good news coming out. I do want some buying power for post Q1 P&D. But I will wait for better... TSLA is so undervalued it's ridiculous.
cliff harris
Member
I do think that the price cuts for Tesla's did shock a bunch of people. There are probably a wave of people who are wary of buying a Tesla because they focus (too much IMHO) on the potential resale value. Even a small increase in 3/Y prices over time is likely to reduce the impact of that, and should prove a bonus to demand.
I still think concerns about demand are unfounded though. There are so many drivers of demand without further impacts to prices and margins. More supercharger locations, more visibility of Tesla's on the road, more service centers, and opening up entirely new markets... all this can continue for some time. I also think people underestimate the extent to which the cybertruck opens up a whole new demographic to considering a Tesla. It would be interesting to know how 3/Y sales change in geographic areas where trucks are especially popular. I'm sure in some parts of the US, especially rural areas, 3 and Y are still poor sellers, and probably associated with californian tree-hugging
.
I still think concerns about demand are unfounded though. There are so many drivers of demand without further impacts to prices and margins. More supercharger locations, more visibility of Tesla's on the road, more service centers, and opening up entirely new markets... all this can continue for some time. I also think people underestimate the extent to which the cybertruck opens up a whole new demographic to considering a Tesla. It would be interesting to know how 3/Y sales change in geographic areas where trucks are especially popular. I'm sure in some parts of the US, especially rural areas, 3 and Y are still poor sellers, and probably associated with californian tree-hugging
.Yeah, per Troy and the data from the daily countries, Tesla is tracking for ~90k EU deliveries in Q1 (+/- 5k or so). Every quarter in 2023 came in between 85-95k.
There is essentially no unit volume growth in Europe for the time being.
At 47, it inexplicably does not take the empty right turn lane for the impending right turn coming up just a few feet away. But then, like a bad selfish driver cuts everyone at the last minute and takes a turn from the wrong lane... and gets a ton of honk from pissed off drivers
It is a situation it brought it on itself by not getting into the turn lane when it was empty. and perfectly the correct time to move.
It does amazing things, and then sometimes inexplicably it does stupid things on simple stuff like this
Musskiah
DisGruntled
This is really incredible news! Some serious eye candy too! I was never into semi trucks, but I think this video just popped my cherry!
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
The only reason to worry about resale value is if you're selling to buy a non-Tesla. So why would Tesla care if they made the value of your car decrease? Sure your car is worth less, but it also costs less to replace it with a new one. If they changed their mind and want a Porsche, who gives a ****? Besides the woman that changed her mind.I do think that the price cuts for Tesla's did shock a bunch of people. There are probably a wave of people who are wary of buying a Tesla because they focus (too much IMHO) on the potential resale value. Even a small increase in 3/Y prices over time is likely to reduce the impact of that, and should prove a bonus to demand.
I still think concerns about demand are unfounded though. There are so many drivers of demand without further impacts to prices and margins. More supercharger locations, more visibility of Tesla's on the road, more service centers, and opening up entirely new markets... all this can continue for some time. I also think people underestimate the extent to which the cybertruck opens up a whole new demographic to considering a Tesla. It would be interesting to know how 3/Y sales change in geographic areas where trucks are especially popular. I'm sure in some parts of the US, especially rural areas, 3 and Y are still poor sellers, and probably associated with californian tree-hugging
Good progress in Europe. Looks like if Europe disallows BYD to go in, then that is a good thing for Tesla.
A couple more articles on it:This news affects the market Tesla sells in.
EPA issues new auto rules aimed at cutting carbon emissions, boosting electric vehicles and hybrids
The Biden administration announced new automobile emissions standards Wednesday that officials called the most ambitious plan ever to cut planet-warming emissions from passenger vehicles. The rules come as sales of electric vehicles, which are needed to meet the standards, have begun to slow...www.yahoo.com
New EPA, DOE fuel regs give automakers longer to reduce CO2 emissions
The model-year 2032 standards are still strict, but there's a more gentle ramp-up.
arstechnica.com
The EPA reveals final auto industry regulations to try to keep the world habitable
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) unveiled the final pollution emissions standards for the auto industry on Wednesday. The regulations mandate that by 2032, most new passenger car and light truck sales in the US must be electric or hybrid.
www.engadget.com
Interesting quote from the latter:
It will be interesting to see what "advanced gasoline" means....
pfft. I changed not one, but two lightbulbs last week.
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