Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

I just ran across this in a Facebook Model 3 group:

Any idea who this might be going out to? I’d love a 30-day trial - might even justify yet another road trip,

Mostly everybody...*

*who doesn't have a Cybertruck, or <HW3, or too new a 2024 version of SW, may also require interior camera...

 

[CorneliusXX]

I even pointed out two which distinctly have not, Ferrari and Porsche. There are a number fo the examples that are not distributed in North America.
Since the famous John Wanamaker said: "I know I waste at least half the money I spend on Advertising. The problem is that I don't know which half", people have regular asked questions about effectiveness.

Since you are positive I am wrong then you might explain why so many companies and people are still using coal to generate power and heat. Just because something si demonstrably factually incorrect does not mean that many people manage to be convinced that is is really a good thing. Just think of all the people with vested interests to promote coal, oil etc.

General Advertising is the same. Once it was the only way, before the internet, before direct marketing. Back then there was newspaper, then radio the Television. Television generated the advertising business as it still exists. General Advertising is the ICE equivalent. "Everyone"
knows it's what to do because 'everyone does it'. That is your argument.

To all of you who are denying these posts, I suggest you consider how much communication and daily discourse have changed since, 1993 when ICANN was formed and the internet began to take shape. in the 21 years since then all of Marketing and Advertising have totally changed. Anybody doing, in 2024, what they did in 1992 is doomed to mediocrity or failure.
Those who stick to ICE are very similar to those who stick to General Advertising. Some still seem robust but their direction is negative.

I'm genuinely sorry for those of us who fail to understand this. By not understanding you also cannot understand Google (not Alphabet), Amazon, Tesla or Apple. Use of advertising by all of those is highly selective and focussed on very specific goals. The famous Apple Super Bowl ad is actually an example of highly selective very specifc goals.

Just think about 1993 vs 2024 and you'll all, hopefully, begin to understand just how huge the changes have been. Frankly I was incredibly lucky to have been in the midst when 1193 happened so was lucky enough to be helping to find new tools. Had I not had that incredible luck I would not have found AAPL, TSLA and I'd probably never have been in the middle of the Great Migration from General Advertising to Targeting and Direct Response.

Just like ICE more people accept the past of Advertsing than see the future and even the present. That is sad.

Now I'm finished on this subject. It feels rather like trying to teach a new language to people who thing their single tongue should be the only one for the world. Since i live in a multilingual world I don't have the luxury to be ignoring new realities.

Thanks for the interesting post. I'm a novice at understanding advertising but at least anecdotally it does seem that there are still a significant number of people that haven't heard of Tesla or have been poorly informed by the media. A couple of notable examples are:

• Marquez mentioned in the CyberTruck review today that many people he spoke to haven't heard of it - which surprised me as it has been one of the most talked about vehicles online. These people he spoke to thought it must be worth $150k-$300k.
• In a similar vein, many people who have heard of Tesla still think their vehicles are $10k-$20k higher in price than they currently sell for.

As an advertising layman it seems there must be lost sales due to not enough people knowing about Tesla products and their value. While I think they've done quite a lot of great targeted marketing and Elon certainly gets the word out, there seems to be a hole in the existing marketing channels represented by number of people who are not yet appropriately informed. How do you think about informing people of a mass market product without the need for some level of general advertising?

Frankly I was incredibly lucky to have been in the midst when 1193 happened so was lucky enough to be helping to find new tools.

Now I know how you've managed to fit so much into one life .

 

[CorneliusXX]

Impressive ramp, but it looks like it has mostly plateaued...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1773848700038586420

Just a speed bump and one we knew was coming due to factory construction. Q1 is also the slow quarter of the year for vehicle sales.

Once Gen3 launches we'll be down to 2 months or less per million.

 

[CorneliusXX]

This has the best intro I have ever seen.

Very positive review from MKBHD and Doug Demuro.

MKBHD has finally started doing sufficient research into his EV reviews. The early videos were terrible. He still overpriced a new Tesla by about $20k just a few weeks ago. Hopefully this standard continues.

His visuals are amazing - some of the best out there.

 

[Zero CO2]

Mostly everybody...*

*who doesn't have a Cybertruck, or <HW3, or too new a 2024 version of SW, may also require interior camera...

* Legacy Model S ... I am assuming this since i have not received 12.x yet

 

[EQC_]

I just ran across this in a Facebook Model 3 group:

Any idea who this might be going out to? I’d love a 30-day trial - might even justify yet another road trip,

With all the earlier debate about whether the new "supervised" label on FSD might have changed the perspective of past or current critics, I sort of missed one detail:

The word "Beta" does not appear at all in this chunk of text offering the FSD trial.

 

[Knightshade]

The word "Beta" does not appear at all in this chunk of text offering the FSD trial.

Cue the debate between the folks who think that's hugely significant and those who understand it has no legal meaning
(though I'd be curious to know if beta still appears in the actual menus when you go to turn it on- it certainly still does in 12.3 anyway)

 

[Rohan]

I don't think there will be an FSD 13. Can't tempt fate. Better they skip to FSD 14.

Yes, but it's bad luvvies to be superstitious...

 

[Singuy]

Cue the debate between the folks who think that's hugely significant and those who understand it has no legal meaning
(though I'd be curious to know if beta still appears in the actual menus when you go to turn it on- it certainly still does in 12.3 anyway)

The disclaimer is certainly less scary vs it may do the wrong thing at thr wrong time. In a sense the word "beta" does make it seem like the car can veer into oncoming traffic at any moments notice or slams into walls (and it kind of did in v1)

 

[scaesare]

With respect I did not intend to state that they are mutually exclusive, but that doing so was a signal. a signal is not immediately a fact, but an indication of very high risk. After all a signal indicating a train approaching a road is not perforce a crash if one crosses anyway, but is an indication fo very high risk, i.e. a signal.

I see it is a problem to use language here intending something with high likelihood vs something that will happen.

Well, I read it that was as you said the signal was of something that has happened (past tense):

signal that the deep dedication to cost effectiveness, efficiency and waste avoidance has ended.

Thus, it's not likelihood that something will happen, or even assurance something definitely will happen, but rather something that already has already occured in that statement.

But your subsequent clarification is helpful, I get what you meant. I still don't agree that advertising implies that cost effectiveness, efficiency and waste avoidance are coming to an end, however. One can advertise the virtues of a product to the unknowing, all the while honing efficiency.

 

[scaesare]

When I looked at Solar Roof I believe the wind rating was only 140 MPH. Miami Dade County I believe moved to 185 MPH and I don't think Solar Roof has their approval. Believe it or not, new asphalt roofs fared ok in 2018's Hurrican Michael. Some believe metal roofs are best, but even those got peeled back or badly damaged by debris. The Solar Roof would have to withstand get blasted by debris also. I'm not sure the California designed Solar Roof has much real world hurricane experience, but maybe Miami Dade is approving them? But Solar Roof still costs 3x-5x of asphalt/metal plus solar panels.

Yeah, that's a major force for sure... but just wanted to clarify this statement:

Solar Roof also does not come close to matching the hurricane wind rating as asphalt shingles,

It appears they have the highest rating currently ... but that may be different from when you looked at them.

 

[DarkandStormy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774085540565979404

Gary Black is estimating 415k deliveries for Q1.

I believe Martin Viecha's compiled consensus is 443k.

Troy releases his final estimate tomorrow, though he has said he is below 1Q23's total of 422,875.

 

[2daMoon]

Well, I read it that was as you said the signal was of something that has happened (past tense):




Thus, it's not likelihood that something will happen, or even assurance something definitely will happen, but rather something that already has already occured in that statement.

But your subsequent clarification is helpful, I get what you meant. I still don't agree that advertising implies that cost effectiveness, efficiency and waste avoidance are coming to an end, however. One can advertise the virtues of a product to the unknowing, all the while honing efficiency.

This discussion left me with the impression that a campaign of Word of Mouth only will (historically) yield better results in informing the unknowing than would a more costly media campaign. So, doing such a media campaign could both cost more and result in reduced sales, comparatively.

If this is indeed supported by historical tracking of these methods by those working on improving their results, it would be difficult to argue against saving the money to spend on something more likely to benefit from it.

As I'm always skeptical of claims in advertisement, this makes a sort of sense to me. I'll always lend more credence to data I have found on my own, or, which comes to me from a trusted source (word of mouth). I am more likely to discount or dismiss out of hand claims of accurate data provided by any manufacturer in their ad. Though I might file ad-based claims in memory to filter for corroboration via trusted data sources.

It seems entirely accurate to infer how @unk45 has probably forgotten more about this stuff than I will ever learn in a lifetime.

 

[geometro]

We’ll find out soon how soft demand is in q1, but hasn’t the stock price reflected this by being down 30% in q1?
Some are wondering how P&D will affect it on Monday but unless it’s wildly outside of 415-435, it seems like it’s already priced in… but of course, the volatility in this stock is nothing to discount.

Sorry just internal monologue…

 

[KBF]

Tesla Semi has shipped over 20k battery packs out of Giga Nevada

Priestley added that Tesla's fleet of Semi units have transported over 20,000 battery packs from Giga Nevada to the Fremont Factory.

www.teslarati.com

I may have missed recent Tesla Semi news, and maybe this was already known, but it's nice to have confirmation that Tesla does indeed use a fleet of Semi's for shipping batteries from Nevada to Fremont. 20,000 packs doesn't seem like a huge number to me, so it sounds like maybe a more recent development?

I've always thought that it would make the most sense for Tesla to produce their own semi's for their needs before selling too much to outside users. A small external sale, like Pepsi, makes sense to get independent real world evaluation/testing, and Pepsi received some positive marketing out of the deal and so did Tesla, but fill our own needs first. A bit like being a small scale farmer: feed your own family first - it's more $ efficient (and healthier for yourself & the environment).

Has anyone seen any other information about Tesla's Semi fleet? From my perspective, I haven't heard much at all - I've seen some in drone flyovers of gigafactories but nothing official.

 

[woodisgood]

We’ll find out soon how soft demand is in q1, but hasn’t the stock price reflected this by being down 30% in q1?
Some are wondering how P&D will affect it on Monday but unless it’s wildly outside of 415-435, it seems like it’s already priced in… but of course, the volatility in this stock is nothing to discount.

Sorry just internal monologue…

I do think the stock will take a hit bc msm will be endlessly broadcasting the “no growth” headlines, but agree that most big players that would prefer to be out due to Q1 have already done so.

So there may be a buying opportunity, but perhaps not as large as some are thinking. I think more are waiting to pounce than are waiting to get out. Personally I have a little cash I could deploy and don’t mind either way.

 

[Usain]

Some are wondering how P&D will affect it on Monday

I'm pretty sure P&D will be released on Tuesday? Isn't it always on the 2nd day of the month after quarter end?

 

[2daMoon]

I do think the stock will take a hit bc msm will be endlessly broadcasting the “no growth” headlines, but agree that most big players that would prefer to be out due to Q1 have already done so.

So there may be a buying opportunity, but perhaps not as large as some are thinking. I think more are waiting to pounce than are waiting to get out. Personally I have a little cash I could deploy and don’t mind either way.

Agreed.

@geometro made a point in his saying we'll find out soon.

The facts (which MSM and Wally will ignore) should be based upon whether or not Tesla continued to sell everything they produced. This will define "demand" and can be found by comparing inventory and time waiting before being delivered with previous numbers.

The usual players will be comparing QoQ, or YoY numbers for deliveries, which may not inform as precisely for a quarter where production was affected by outside events. But, doing it the usual way fits their narrative better because that is as far as they will think into this. Right?

No worries though. The effect of their misunderstanding/misinterpretation will extend the buying opportunities for those investors (retail and institutional) who are adept at reading the writing on the wall and can take advantage of the moment to lock in their long-term gains ahead of the crowd who will eventually rush in once they realize what should have been obvious to them.

HODL

 

[Knightshade]

We’ll find out soon how soft demand is in q1, but hasn’t the stock price reflected this by being down 30% in q1?
Some are wondering how P&D will affect it on Monday but unless it’s wildly outside of 415-435, it seems like it’s already priced in… but of course, the volatility in this stock is nothing to discount.

Sorry just internal monologue…

That depends on how you define things like "priced in", "fair value", how much you believe in future ideas/products, and over what timeline.

On the most pessimistic end of that- A car company, that has basically stopped growing, is still wildly overpriced at Teslas current stock price right now.

On the most optimistic end of that- A mutli-dimensional tech company that will grow to 20M BEVs a year, a large share of WW stationary energy storage, a thriving and profitable insurance business, L5 self driving robotaxis, AI training as a service, and autonomous AI robots in mass production, all within a decade, is still wildly underpriced at Teslas current stock price right now.



There's definitely a few people on each end of that spectrum in this thread, and many others somewhere in between.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Fear not, $BTC will come to the rescue for earnings! j/k

Q1 is a downer, but rest of the year should be better, whomever has sold, has done so already. Is $TSLA gonna go down more from here? Probably. Is Tesla positioned to dominate the future - YES and it will not even be close.