Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jamaatta]

Finnish tabloid:

"Here's the megastars' new favorite car

Supercelebrities have taken to the wheel of Tesla's massive new product in droves in the United States."

Tässä on megatähtien uusi suosikkiauto

Superjulkkikset ovat siirtyneet sankoin joukoin Teslan massiivisen uutuuden rattiin Yhdysvalloissa.

www.iltalehti.fi

 

[Xd85]

Is anyone here aware of Xiaomi SU7? It got 50,000 orders in one day. The spec is comparable to Model 3 and the price is 10% lower. It might already impact M3 sales in China for the coming months.
Last time someone said don't worry about Xiaomi, which is just a phone manufacturer, and how could it make a good car?
I somehow agreed with that, but now I think that is a really careless underestimate.
Although Xiaomi is losing money on each car they sell, but their phone-car ecosystem is pretty good. There are millions of Xiaomi phone users in China, and they can all integrate their information and Apps into Xiaomi SU7 easily, and that is quite an attraction for them to consider SU7.

Many said Friday TSLA dropped because of SU7. I hope the impact will not extend.
Currently the advantage of TESLA M3 is the supercharge network only. Not sure about FSD in China.

comparable except for a few specs per the article i shared the other day (CNBC). What those "other specs" are, so far nobody has any insight into. Also, article claims they admit selling it at a loss.

def need more context

 

[SharonMY]

It would be nice if those with white interiours were available in Canada. That and bring back a true towing package where one can install a brake controller and have an active charge line on the 7 pin trailer connector. Those both went away with the change to a 15.5 volt lithium battery. Not sure why they didn’t address that. Weird.

Jmho.

Did you find a supported brake controller for your Model Y?

I have a 22 MYLR w factory towing. Tesla's low voltage system sends 15.5 v to the brake controller wires. Prodigy-Tekonsha told me their operating range doesn’t support 15.5. Tesla disconnected the Aux power to the 7 pin. Which ruled out the RF solution I have.

RedArc has a 24v controller that can handle the 15.5 v. but there was an issue with Tesla and RedArc wiring working out of the box,

I worked with the Rocklin CA GM and team for two years trying to get a supported solution. Was told ‘Corp didn’t expect people to tow.’ Still working on it.

I have a Nucamp TAB 320S Boondock, perfect rig if I can find a supported brake controller. In the meantime , it’s bricked.

 

[EVCollies]

Got a notification for a boring “bug fixes” update last night, and got in the car this morning to discover I had gotten my FSD trial!! (2023 Model 3, 12.3.2.1)

Only got to put about 15 minutes on it going to work but no interventions and so much more confident and natural than the 11.4 I tried for a month last year. Gonna be a fun month!

If I am an accurate example, acceptance rate of FSD will be increasing!

I did not purchase FSD on my new MX after selling my 9 year old MS due to disappointment with autopilot.

Just 30 minutes into my free month of 12.3.2.1, I'm ready to send two Ben's per month to Austin.

 

[insaneoctane]

My news feed has an unusually high number of negative Tesla stories lately...feels like the MSM is approaching maximum negativity. I'm looking to buy more at various levels, especially if we tick down (hard to pass a good sale, right?). Not advice and my timing is nominally poor.

 

[Fred42]

Is it just me?... does anyone else feel like CT is being underestimated ... it will take share from multiple segments , Large/Med Pickup truck, large/med SUV, station wagon

this may have been discussed before but the aftermarket for the CT is going to be huge ... and eventually it will become a virtuous cycle with newly created businesses ... the blank stainless triangle will be personalized in countless ways

I believe the CT will have a market for years, but I'm not sure it will break out of niche player status.

A more compact pickup could be a big player around the world.

I expect to buy one if Tesla offers me a dual motor CT for $79,900 (even though my relatives are already disgusted that I bought one of "Elon's cars"), and especially if the tax credit is available. And I would likely spring for FSD. It surprises me that so many people here have turned up their nose at an offer of a Foundation Series, given that the price includes FSD.

 

[Tony73]

We have already seen Zanegler's YouTube channel the production line is extremely simple because it is basically few assembly stations - not vertically integrated like S3XY CT production lines.

The current “production line” is really simple because the current semi is hand assembled. There is a reason Tesla has never shown it to the public. The volume production line will not be simple.

 

[Zero CO2]

I believe the CT will have a market for years, but I'm not sure it will break out of niche player status. Tesla's Honda Ridgeline.

I will buy one if Tesla offers me a dual motor CT for $79,900 (even though my relatives are already disgusted that I bought one of "Elon's cars"). And I would likely spring for FSD. It surprises me that so many people here have turned up their nose at an offer of a Foundation Series, given that the price includes FSD.

A more compact pickup could be a big player around the world.

you may be right but the level of interest in CT is off the charts ... I could not even tell you what a honda ridgeline looks like ... i guess we shall see ..i am trading in my Toyota 4 runner which has a bit of a cult following for the CT ... i think the CT will blow away the 4 runner and most other SUV over time

 

[GhostSkater]

Just some thoughts on Autopilot after a lot of playing around with it today

Now I understand why people were so happy that the new regulations are going to pass and why they were so pissed about a updated that made Autopilot follow the current regulations

For those that don't know, as far as I understand EU laws regulate how much lateral G force and/or steering angle a driving assist system can do, and the limit is quite low. And what by law the system should do if those limits are hit? Immediately disengage and ask the user to take over

Dangerous as hell in my opinion, way more dangerous than anything the system could do without limit

Since now I'm more used and the road were empty, I decided to push it on some mountain roads, with sharp bends and even some 180° extremely tight hairpin turns

Tried all speeds, even at minimum it still goes over probably the steering angle limit and sends you straight to the side of the road, down a mountain if you don't catch it in time. Since I purposefully testing I was ready to take over, but I can see who someone who has AP engaged coming from a straight section where it works well would end up dead

Just my small rant, because watching FSD videos and then driving this, and knowing this sucks like that because of archaic legislation makes me pissed

Also found some interesting edge cases for FSD on the mountain roads, a single lane curved tunnel (actually most of the road was single lane, a few spots that one car has to give way to the other) that you have to use a mirror on the side of the road to see if anyone is coming, or if you encounter someone inside it, like it happened, one of the vehicles has to back it up all the way out and to the previous spot that two cars can fit

 

[Quesder]

If I am an accurate example, acceptance rate of FSD will be increasing!

I did not purchase FSD on my new MX after selling my 9 year old MS due to disappointment with autopilot.

Just 30 minutes into my free month of 12.3.2.1, I'm ready to send two Ben's per month to Austin.

I feel sorry that your Ben's will not arrive on time for Q1 ER.
Again, everybody tie your seat belt tight, Q1 ER may bring TSLA to $150 level, and maybe it is time to load more shares if you can. Then we will see if more people are going to pay $199 per month to Tesla. Honestly speaking, that will not increase revenue much, but hopefully, Wall St will interpret it exaggeratedly.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Semi will be at "volume production" by EOY according to Elon. Volume production for MY is 5k/wk, so for Semi maybe 500-1000/wk. I think by Q325, a 40k/yr runrate for Semi is all but in the bag. We have already seen Zanegler's YouTube channel the production line is extremely simple because it is basically few assembly stations - not vertically integrated like S3XY CT production lines.

Doubt. Give it another year. The manufacturing plant only has earthworks done so far and manufacturing for the large amount of cells for 40k/yr Semi's hasn't started yet. Semi will be a hit, but not by EOY.

 

[Musskiah]

I feel sorry that your Ben's will not arrive on time for Q1 ER.
Again, everybody tie your seat belt tight, Q1 ER may bring TSLA to $150 level, and maybe it is time to load more shares if you can. Then we will see if more people are going to pay $199 per month to Tesla. Honestly speaking, that will not increase revenue much, but hopefully, Wall St will interpret it exaggeratedly.

It's true, revenue boost will be a rounding error, however, let's talk profit: For every 50k Tesla owners who pay $600 per Q for FSD, that's $30M pure profit...roughly a 1.2% profit boost...every single quarter. It gets pretty meaningful if, say, 200-300k US Tesla owners (4.8-7.4% profit boost) realize they need to reconsider how much their life and their family's lives are really worth, and how convenient it is to text and email on the highway, and not have to pay too close attention to where they are going, etc.

 

[Musskiah]

Doubt. Give it another year. The manufacturing plant only has earthworks done so far and manufacturing for the large amount of cells for 40k/yr Semi's hasn't started yet. Semi will be a hit, but not by EOY.

I agree, which is why I say 12-18 months. The initial 4M sq ft factory Spark Gigafactory expansion has been put on hold in favor of a faster factory solution adjacent to GigaNV. It will be built in 6 months, lines set in 3, ramp in 6-9 months. Volume by end of Q125-Q325. The CATL battery lines will be up in a jiffy, CATL has been setting them up. There is no added complexity.

 

[Musskiah]

Your patronisizng tone, suggesting we are all absolute idiots who don't understand the internet is where you lose people. I literally run heavily targeted, optimised ads on social media every day, and made that perfectly clear.

So you're sayin' you speak more than one language? prove it! (I'm just trying to lighten things up)

 

[Discoducky]

We’ll find out soon how soft demand is in q1, but hasn’t the stock price reflected this by being down 30% in q1?
Some are wondering how P&D will affect it on Monday but unless it’s wildly outside of 415-435, it seems like it’s already priced in… but of course, the volatility in this stock is nothing to discount.

Sorry just internal monologue…

IMO the key to this quarter will be to compare to other OEMs as a lowering tide...yada, yada..all boats float lower.

I think we all know, but it is worth saying, NO car company has higher profit margins at Tesla's volume and therefore can cut prices beyond others and feel less pain.

The less known is that all customers will feel the excitement of a 'supervised' FSD ride and will be giving rides to family/friends for at least a month.

And even less known is that my CT is being delivered today! So it will count! Bazzinga!

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Did you find a supported brake controller for your Model Y?

I have a 22 MYLR w factory towing. Tesla's low voltage system sends 15.5 v to the brake controller wires. Prodigy-Tekonsha told me their operating range doesn’t support 15.5. Tesla disconnected the Aux power to the 7 pin. Which ruled out the RF solution I have.

RedArc has a 24v controller that can handle the 15.5 v. but there was an issue with Tesla and RedArc wiring working out of the box,

I worked with the Rocklin CA GM and team for two years trying to get a supported solution. Was told ‘Corp didn’t expect people to tow.’ Still working on it.

I have a Nucamp TAB 320S Boondock, perfect rig if I can find a supported brake controller. In the meantime , it’s bricked.

People are installing the Tekonsha P3 on the 15.5 volt systems with no issues. Our 2022 has the 14.4 volt (12 volt) system.

 

[cliff harris]

Its worth reminding ourselves that if FSD12 is THIS good, then how good will optimus be soon? Its worth thinking that cars travel fast, and have to make decisions super fast. There are constant split-second decisions to make in FSD that if wrong, would result in death for the driver/passengers and other people on the road.
A Tesla needs to be aware of its surroundings and deduce the actions and intentions of other road users, often when travelling at 70MPH.
Now imagine that, but at 5 MPH for a tesla bot just walking and carrying stuff. Sure, the environment for humans is more complex than the road, but in fairly static environments, such as an office or factory floor, maybe not THAT much. Assume bot operating only indoors with lighting, and all the weather/night issues go away immediately.
Once FSD is humming, and the dojo/nvidia cluster is available more often to the optimus team, things might start getting very very interesting. Although I would LOVE to know the details, part of me wants Tesla to never mention the bot again, until video leaks of them working part of the production line.

TL;DR: Maybe FSD is a harder problem than some genuinely useful bot applications. Bot timeline may be way faster than assumed.

 

[Tony73]

I feel sorry that your Ben's will not arrive on time for Q1 ER.
Again, everybody tie your seat belt tight, Q1 ER may bring TSLA to $150 level, and maybe it is time to load more shares if you can. Then we will see if more people are going to pay $199 per month to Tesla. Honestly speaking, that will not increase revenue much, but hopefully, Wall St will interpret it exaggeratedly.

It does not have to increase revenue by much initially. The very notion that this is becoming a product with appeal outside the Tesla/tech enthusiast community is a big deal. Once regular people start signing up for subscriptions and raving about the product, Wall street will notice. They love subscription based software services. The TAM is huge when you consider the existing fleet, future sales and licensing. 10 million FSD subscriptions in North America by 2030 is likely very conservative. That is $12B in pure profit at $100 per month. I guess if you amortize the cost of training systems, it’s not pure profit.

 

[samn]

IMO the key to this quarter will be to compare to other OEMs as a lowering tide...yada, yada..all boats float lower.

I think we all know, but it is worth saying, NO car company has higher profit margins at Tesla's volume and therefore can cut prices beyond others and feel less pain.

The less known is that all customers will feel the excitement of a 'supervised' FSD ride and will be giving rides to family/friends for at least a month.

And even less known is that my CT is being delivered today! So it will count! Bazzinga!

Great points and I'm also curious to see how other auto companies fared in Q1.

Congrats on your CyberTruck!!! So cool to see someone with your deep history with Tesla getting a CT. What a wild ride. Let us know what you think!

 

[Musskiah]

CATL and Tesla is the new power couple, enabling both Semi and Robotaxi:

CATL teases Tesla batteries for robotaxi fleet

CATL’s Chairman teased Tesla batteries for the robotaxt fleet. Tesla will use idle equipment from Chinese supplier CATL at Giga Nevada.

www.google.com