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Barely. Tesla Vehicle Production & Deliveries and Date for Financial Results & Webcast for First Quarter 2024FYI, my forecasts have never been over and never change within the quarter, and if people would take mine they’d always be pleasantly surprised and happy when all was said and done. 383,000 in the bag.
As usual with a quarter freshly in the rear view mirror, expectations going forward are what will likely drive valuations.
My expectation is that more and more people will come around to what Elon has been saying for years now: autonomy is what will determine whether Tesla is "worth a lot of money or basically zero" (his words not mine). And this shift will probably be borne out of necessity, because I see interest rates staying structurally high and maybe only coming down to the mid 3%s when the Fed finishes cutting -- and treasury yields might stay higher for significantly longer.
Next year, depending upon implementation, it will become even more challenging to qualify for the Inflation Reduction Act tax incentives as vehicles will be excluded if their batteries contain minerals from foreign entities of concern along with ratcheting up the % that needs to be sourced from free trade countries.
So next year you have interest rates still in the 4%s +, maybe even a chance we see zero rate cuts this year, then potentially more vehicles losing half of or the full $7500 credit.
For these reasons and others (competition in China, wages increasing, etc) I think there will be continued pressure on margins and how quickly that turns around seemingly depends upon belief around how big of an impact will be made through further FSD monetization.
387kIs P&D out yet? Pre-market is looking poopy
If I don't need to park, nor a garage, insurance, service, changing to winter tires, cleaning etc, and can order a car to take me (and family/friends) from and to wherever at any time and can sleep, watch a movie, be drunk etc and can do this at a cost that is lower than that of owning and driving my own car and without any need to finance it, it seems an obviously more appealing alternative to me.I'm definitely in the minority here and don't understand the massive appeal others state of a robotaxi fleet for me. I probably just don't get it.
Is having a basic EV such a bad thing so I don't have to sit in someone else's car or wait for a taxi to arrive at my location? I think the overall American public likes to have 'control' and own a car, even a cheap one to get from A->B is not something they will deviate in large numbers. My partner doesn't even like the basic cruise control or any automation (I rightly/wrongly assume the general female population are not high adopters of those features).
Also, isn't labor with Uber/gig economy cheap due to low pay/benefits of the drivers? Large robo-taxi fleets will still need to be charged, maintenance, cleaning, repairs (Hertz example).
I suppose being driven in a robo-taxi when one can go to sleep in the back seat is nice for a very long commute/drive is nice, but is that soon or would I bother if I don't have a long commute?
Does the math work where someone pays $30k-$40k for a Tesla, spends another $12k for FSD, and just robo-taxi it out with all the maintenance/repairs/cost of it to make some bucks drivng others around?
I question the amount of margin people expect on autonomous TAAS, but I do not question autonomous TAAS. If you have autonomy you will have large-scale TAAS, because it effectively creates awesome public transportation and vehicle rental. I think it would be likely to wipe out the lower end of the vehicle market in urban areas and reduce ownership in other sections of the market.Well you are modeling so the good news there is that when something goes off kilter you can look and see why. I would say that most Uber profits are in just a few cities. Really less than 20. Actually I meant revenues but lets assume a relationship. Waymo will be there by the time Tesla is doing robotaxis. I'll go out and say I think Waymo will make a billion in Robotaxi profit before Tesla.
I think lots of people would like a FSD suite on a car to drive them in their car and I think software sales could be very nice indeed. Just not sold on the whole taas thing.
Also, the younger generation isn't all that excited about driving. While most of us couldn't wait to get a driver's license, many kids today see driving as a chore. They are used to being driven and they like it that way. Some of my daughter's friends are in college and they still haven't bothered to get a license.The people who think car ownership will end are on the opposite end of the extreme of those that think there's no market for robo-taxi. Like most things in the world, the truth is in the middle. There's a market in big cities and it would generate a ton of revenue, but in the US, people will still own cars, especially outside of large cities.
Security cameras have an auto-iris to deal with the sun by limiting the amount of light that gets in. I'm sure Tesla cameras do the same. No need for a physical shade
No not WRONG as you so adamantly say. My point is that 100% of Leaf miles are electric.WRONG, here is a link to one study, "On average, owners of the Nissan Leaf battery-electric car cover 629 miles a month, while those who drive the Chevrolet Volt range-extended electric car go 60 percent further, logging 1,012 miles." The second link found that 82% of the Volt's total miles were all electric. Chevy Volt Owners Drive More Electric Miles Than Nissan Leaf Drivers: Why? or Chevy Volt, Nissan Leaf go nearly the same all-electric miles a year - Autoblog
I guess everyone can celebrate Troys # being off, right?
Especially weird they largely blame the bad #s on factory shutdowns, and yet production was almost 50,000 cars above deliveries.
Anybody willing to admit demand concern (at anything near current pricing) is a thing now?
Did the cars actually FALL into the Red Sea? Ouch...
BREAKING: Tesla delivered 386,783 vehicles in Q1. Wall St was expecting ~431k. Total Q1 production was 433,371.Tesla: "Decline in volumes was partially due to the early phase of the production ramp of the updated Model 3 at our Fremont factory and factory shutdowns resulting from shipping diversions caused by the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin."Tesla also reported record Megapack installations for the first time on a delivery report: 4,053 MW
Who caresMost importantly, how did Troy do?
I guess everyone can celebrate Troys # being off, right?
Especially weird they largely blame the bad #s on factory shutdowns, and yet production was almost 50,000 cars above deliveries.
Anybody willing to admit demand concern (at anything near current pricing) is a thing now?
Largely???I guess everyone can celebrate Troys # being off, right?
Especially weird they largely blame the bad #s on factory shutdowns, and yet production was almost 50,000 cars above deliveries.
Anybody willing to admit demand concern (at anything near current pricing) is a thing now?
If Tesla were concerned about demand they would not have boosted inventory (now at 28 days calculated). Loss of production earlier in the quarter leads to move in transit as they catch up later in the quarter (theoretically).Decline in volumes was partially due to the early phase of the production ramp of the updated Model 3 at our Fremont factory and factory shutdowns resulting from shipping diversions caused by the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin.