Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[cusetownusa]

Elon texting his opinions ( I buy Cook's products and know nothing of the man's opinion, and I am a tech geek) has made Tesla part of the political discussion, rightly or wrongly. The Rat.................errrrrrr.................. Walt Disney was falling into that trap and quickly got out of that arena. Why? It's not good for business.

Exactly...same reason I don't email/post my opinions (etc. political, etc) to all of my clients. Yes, a good percentage of them will agree with my opinions, but a big enough percentage of them would be completely turned off by them that it would hurt my business.

 

[2daMoon]

It's not about popularity imo. Tim Cook isn't polarizing and most people are indifferent about him. In fact, most people are indifferent about the CEO of any product they buy. While Elon has his fans and a higher "popularity" rating, he has a large amount of people that hate him so much they won't buy "his" products. I see it in my bubble of the world with a lot of people I know that simply won't buy a Tesla because of EM.

Yes, but give some thought to just how much of what they know about Elon was shaped by a strong bias and incentives driving the sources spreading negativity about him. These sources have been skewed, focused, and amplified in order to serve monetary purposes by painting him in a bad light.

Nobody, other than perhaps presidential candidates, have received this level of coverage designed to produce a psychological response, over an extended period of time.

The people who are most threatened by Elon and the disruption his companies have generated are experts at swaying public opinion for their own purposes.

How many who have enthusiastically rallied around the "Elon Bad" flag ever make an attempt to determine with any certainty whether or not they are being played?

 

[aubreymcfato]

Well I guess the BYD brand must be completely toxic in China due to its CEO then.... /s

But seriously, should be obvious the weak Chinese economy is another factor, Tesla didn't spell this out probably because they don't want to anger CCP.

Agreed, China seems to play a big role in this drop... although BYD did in fact increase its Q1, YoY.

 

[mongo]

April 17th Earning's call should be entertaining.

Tuesday April 23rd. (If referring to Tesla)

 

[2daMoon]

Dan Ives sound bites. He remains a long term bull but calls Q1 delivery numbers an unmitigated disaster, a nightmare quarter, train wreck. Demand is soft. Says TSLA is at a fork in the road - cut prices or darker days ahead.

Despite being a bull, Dan Ives is a bit of a drama queen. His money is made by saying outlandish things in interviews.

Filter out the drama and make use of the data he offers to get the most useful info.

 

[Discoducky]

Despite being a bull, Dan Ives is a bit of a drama queen. His money is made by saying outlandish things in interviews.

Filter out the drama and make use of the data he offers to get the most useful info.

IMO, Dan is focused on the new CFOs lack of forecasting as the 'disaster' which I agree with. I miss Zach and Deepak's updates.

 

[GatorMeat]

Yes, but give some thought to just how much of what they know about Elon was shaped by a strong bias and incentives driving the sources spreading negativity about him. These sources have been skewed, focused, and amplified in order to serve monetary purposes by painting him in a bad light.

Nobody, other than perhaps presidential candidates, have received this level of coverage designed to produce a psychological response, over an extended period of time.

The people who are most threatened by Elon and the disruption his companies have generated are experts at swaying public opinion for their own purposes.

How many who have enthusiastically rallied around the "Elon Bad" flag ever make an attempt to determine with any certainty whether or not they are being played?

Except Elon willingly inserts himself into the daily headlines. He craves the attention unlike any other billionaire we have ever seen, and unlike most billionaires who remain in the shadows.

 

[GatorMeat]

Despite being a bull, Dan Ives is a bit of a drama queen. His money is made by saying outlandish things in interviews.

Filter out the drama and make use of the data he offers to get the most useful info.

Dan has attention seeking desires, just like Elon. His wardrobe is enough to give that away.

 

[2daMoon]

IMO, Dan is focused on the new CFOs lack of forecasting as the 'disaster' which I agree with. I miss Zach and Deepak's updates.

It does seem to be the sand in his craw.

I'm okay with the new lack of updates. Less ammo to be misinterpreted by MSM.

 

[replicant]

IMO, Dan is focused on the new CFOs lack of forecasting as the 'disaster' which I agree with. I miss Zach and Deepak's updates.

I wish I knew why Zach left Tesla…

 

[NicoV]

“Decline in volumes was partially due to the early phase of the production ramp of the updated Model 3 at our Fremont factory and factory shutdowns resulting from shipping diversions caused by the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin.”

In Europe there were no inventory discounts, no incentives, not even FSD or Free Supercharging transfers. Elon doped Q3 en Q4 2023 with those incentives, so part of the decline may also be explained by the lack of incentives to push people to BUY NOW.

I’m waiting for an FSD transfer incentive to upgrade our old Model 3 to a new Model Y (preferably Juniper or how is the rumoured update called?).

Others may be waiting for the availability of a Ludicrous Model 3. If if indeed has an active suspension I may even want to wait for that in a Model Y.

Others may be waiting for a Cybertruck.

All of these reasons to wait lower the demand.

 

[capster]

While I do appreciate that I think if you asked an employee "How did this error happen?" and his only and entire explanation was "Well, it was partially due to my screwing up at my job" and then that's all they said, you might be reasonable in drawing certain conclusions about how accurate their use of "partially" is in the response.

But the other side of that is- if you DO accept the idea they only, intentionally, gave a partial and incomplete answer, you now have to consider what the REST of the unspoken answer is.

If it isn't supply, it must be demand.

Thus we can reach one of two conclusions in all this (and I apologize if my previous posts lacked clarity on this, but perhaps the below resolves that?):


Either Tesla is refusing to admit there's an actual, real, demand problem right now (more likely IMHO)
or
Tesla doesn't think demand is a concern and they misused the word partially in the excuse they gave for the really low delivery numbers being production related (less likely IMHO)

There are more than two possibilities.

The Model 3 ramp, factory shutdowns and shipping diversions may have had knock-on effects.

For example, some models and trims could not be brought to where they needed to be by the end of quarter.

 

[replicant]

Can you guess the % of Tesla employees holding underwater stock options?

 

[2daMoon]

Except Elon willingly inserts himself into the daily headlines. He craves the attention unlike any other billionaire we have ever seen, and unlike most billionaires who remain in the shadows.

It is more like he enjoys poking the bear than it is him striving for attention. Attention seekers aren't usually strategic the way he is.

 

[replicant]

There are more than two possibilities.

The Model 3 ramp, factory shutdowns and shipping diversions may have had knock-on effects.

For example, models and trims could not be brought to where they needed to be when they needed to be there.

I heard from Tesla employees that for this Q, the problem in Europe was of total demand and not logistics.

 

[Paul_SF]

IF FSD is solved this year( I know, I know...), I expect all cars to sell without it at under 10% margins. And FSD to go up in price.

I stand by my beginning of the year prediction Tesla will go under 12% margin this year.

It needs to be done, kill the fugging ICE already!

NOBODY should even think of buying a new ICE vehicle in 2025!

 

[Knightshade]

There are more than two possibilities.

The Model 3 ramp, factory shutdowns and shipping diversions may have had knock-on effects.

For example, models and trims could not be brought to where they needed to be by the end of quarter.

Excluding Model 3, in the US only, there appeared to have been hefty inventory available prior to the production stalls/shipping delays in all other geos of all other models-- the fact days of inventory STILL doubled suggests this wasn't a supply issue at all apart from that one specific one.

Model M3 US specifically it was-- but again most estimates have that around 30k "lost" production, which would still only get you to ~417k deliveries if 100% of them were sold and delivered by EoQ (not a sure thing with the $7500 tax credit gone for them as of Jan 1)- so still down YoY.

 

[Musskiah]

The hopium is strong. You don't listen to even Elon saying the environment is tough because of interest rates being high and very competitive Chinese companies.

Those are factors which I am not unaware of. I suppose we will see in the coming months how much of this is delivery curve flattening vs soft demand. I'll be in my hopium den (which is my MY running V12.3.3) if you need me.

 

[cusetownusa]

Yes, but give some thought to just how much of what they know about Elon was shaped by a strong bias and incentives driving the sources spreading negativity about him. These sources have been skewed, focused, and amplified in order to serve monetary purposes by painting him in a bad light.

Nobody, other than perhaps presidential candidates, have received this level of coverage designed to produce a psychological response, over an extended period of time.

The people who are most threatened by Elon and the disruption his companies have generated are experts at swaying public opinion for their own purposes.

How many who have enthusiastically rallied around the "Elon Bad" flag ever make an attempt to determine with any certainty whether or not they are being played?

I agree to a certain extent about him being a target of misinformation. However, he does text his opinions a lot and a lot of them are controversial which will inherently give people a reason to hate him. I have always defended him and pointed out misinformation in my inner circle up until recently, as I have lost a lot of respect from him with his "opinion" on topics I am not going to go into in this thread as they are off limits.

 

[Zero CO2]

IMO, Dan is focused on the new CFOs lack of forecasting as the 'disaster' which I agree with. I miss Zach and Deepak's updates.

from Q423 report

"Volume Our company is currently between two major growth waves: the first one began with the global expansion of the Model 3/Y platform and the next one we believe will be initiated by the global expansion of the next-generation vehicle platform. In 2024, our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023, as our teams work on the launch of the next-generation vehicle at Gigafactory Texas. In 2024, the growth rate of deployments and revenue in our Energy Storage business should outpace the Automotive business."

this forecast is spot on for Q124... how was his forecast off... i agree his verbal delivery was lacking but he literally told us what would happen ... and this in not accounting for Berlin fire , red sea disruption ...which he really could not forecast