Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Given auto growth was almost double-digit % negative this seems like it was a low bar?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Given auto growth was almost double-digit % negative this seems like it was a low bar?
Except maybe one billionaire. Oh right, this guy may not be a billionaire.
Deepak went to Zipline, but Zach hasn't announced or posted anything since leaving; maybe he retired like me?
i suppose ... but like i said he could not forecast the exogenous events from the last 3 months ...this report is disappointing..but i do take the energy growth at 16% YOY and 40% QOQ as a counter to the weak auto numbers
Tesla has two mass market models, the 3 and the Y. One is already the #1 volume car in the world and the other is top 5/10 in most markets. As you point out there are probably some demand levers to pull with these models, but I don't see how any of them are significant enough to power 50% growth from current levels.
If the CT was an actual mass market competitor in the $50,000 truck market we could have had the next leg of vehicle sales growth. Instead we have a highly polarizing, moderate volume (maybe), high priced, technological showcase that is cool on YouTube but not so much in the real world.
So now we wait for news for the next mass market vehicle and can only hope that it has a steering wheel and will start production in 2025.
I'm all for making EV more affordable, but far too many ICE are being sold at prices well above Tesla's. With Tesla sales dropping hard in a market that's growing YoY, our first question should be: why demand for Tesla is not growing with the demand for cars?
Tesla are far better than they were years ago, and far cheaper too. Why can't Tesla get car buyers to even consider getting Teslas when they can afford them?!
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Nice that you acknowledge your ‘either-or’ was false.
Now think again about your "at all" and perhaps you’ll come to a different answer too.
Let’s see what is said on the earnings call and how things go in Q2 before we start clutching our pearls about demand.
Probably rather small. I think most get RSUs instead of options these days?
For those who don't know, RSUs still have value when the stock goes down.
I don't believe a 38 y-o (like me) who care for Tesla's mission (like me) and have been a great CFO (not like me) would retire this young to enjoy his profits while the company can still fail its mission.
Krugerrand
Meow
Doesn’t matter ‘barely’. I was like less than 1% off (the closest of anyone calling themselves experts, analysts, or otherwise) and didn’t have to twist my panties in a knot for three months. Nor did I charge people or string them along.
AND, to the point I was making. If everyone had just gone with my pulled out of thin air guess, everyone would be happy with the results regardless.
So now here is my Q2 estimate not to change weekly or monthly, and if you just go with it you won’t be unpleasantly surprised in three months: 383,000
One big reason is exposure. In every small, rural town in America you are no further than 20 miles from the nearest Toyota, Ford, GM dealership and you know exactly where those dealerships are. You can waltz in and test drive one and buy on on the spot.
If you want a Tesla, unless you live in the largest metro area(s) of your state, you may be 200-500 miles from the nearest Tesla location and you likely have no idea where the nearest Tesla store is even located and likely have never driven by one.
Wow, no two ways about it those P&D numbers are horrible. Even much worse than my pessimistic self thought they would be! 
Long term this won't matter, but short term its concerning. 50K cars in transit or inventory is alarming to me. I think we have to admit there is a demand issue going on now. I don't think its just a Tesla demand issue but an auto industry issue, even BYD is down like 40% for Q1. Still I think its clear by now the demand problem is real.
Megapacks are still climbing nicely, and FSD is getting joyfully good, but I'm not even sure 2 million deliveries for 2024 is in the cards now. Not with this start to the year. I can only hope Tesla beats P&D for whole of last year in 2024 at this rate.
Should present a GREAT buying opportunity for us HOLD'ers though!
Long term this won't matter, but short term its concerning. 50K cars in transit or inventory is alarming to me. I think we have to admit there is a demand issue going on now. I don't think its just a Tesla demand issue but an auto industry issue, even BYD is down like 40% for Q1. Still I think its clear by now the demand problem is real.
Megapacks are still climbing nicely, and FSD is getting joyfully good, but I'm not even sure 2 million deliveries for 2024 is in the cards now. Not with this start to the year. I can only hope Tesla beats P&D for whole of last year in 2024 at this rate.
Should present a GREAT buying opportunity for us HOLD'ers though!
Krugerrand
Meow
mtndrew1
Active Member
This probably won’t get a warm reception here but it might be relevant for investors.
I’m driving my second Tesla now and will not buy another, specifically because of Elon Musk. He’s turned my car into a MAGA hat and I want to be as far away from the brand as possible.
The moment that FSD allows the sale of my car to break even, I’m out, though his nonsense in that regard probably means I’ll take a bath on this car.
Even if Elon is gone it’ll be a while before the stink is off the brand. I’m willing to accept a (moderately) inferior car to be away from Tesla and I’m willing to lose money to do so. Anecdotally I have a friend who is a surgeon and a friend who is a prominent TV producer and both have moved on from their Teslas for this reason.
Anyway, flame away.
I’m driving my second Tesla now and will not buy another, specifically because of Elon Musk. He’s turned my car into a MAGA hat and I want to be as far away from the brand as possible.
The moment that FSD allows the sale of my car to break even, I’m out, though his nonsense in that regard probably means I’ll take a bath on this car.
Even if Elon is gone it’ll be a while before the stink is off the brand. I’m willing to accept a (moderately) inferior car to be away from Tesla and I’m willing to lose money to do so. Anecdotally I have a friend who is a surgeon and a friend who is a prominent TV producer and both have moved on from their Teslas for this reason.
Anyway, flame away.
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
It's the beginning of the end. Ashok warned us. Thank God I live in my mom's basement.
Living in the South, I actually feel more comfortable/safe driving around in an Elon-mobile. I also haven't experienced a coal-roll in a very long time. Not that I agree with Elon's new passion for politics, but it also wouldn't force me to buy a crap legacy EV
Exactly. That's why the first question should be "Why can't Tesla get car buyers to even consider getting Teslas when they can afford them?!".
Far too many people who live close to Tesla service centers are buying ICE/PHEV that are worse than Tesla on all fronts (ask my 65 y-o father about his 2024 Lexus NX 450h+ F SPORT).
It's 101 marketing to ensure your mass-market products appeal to your target before you expand into new geographies.
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Wow, no two ways about it those P&D numbers are horrible. Even much worse than my pessimistic self thought they would be!
Long term this won't matter, but short term its concerning. 50K cars in transit or inventory is alarming to me. I think we have to admit there is a demand issue going on now. I don't think its just a Tesla demand issue but an auto industry issue, even BYD is down like 40% for Q1. Still I think its clear by now the demand problem is real.
Megapacks are still climbing nicely, and FSD is getting joyfully good, but I'm not even sure 2 million deliveries for 2024 is in the cards now. Not with this start to the year. I can only hope Tesla beats P&D for whole of last year in 2024 at this rate.
Should present a GREAT buying opportunity for us HOLD'ers though!
Agreed on slim chance of hitting 2 million. FSD is pretty cool now but still too far away from any autonomous level to influence sales. And cybertruck production still seems to be hanging around under a hundred per day after 4 months. Maybe 1.9 million…if things go super well. Less than last year if they don’t. Until the model 2 is ramped I don’t see any serious growth on the auto side for a couple years. Storage will hopefully take up some of the slack.
Jmho.
Tesla never said they delivered 2 millions cars this years never !Wow, no two ways about it those P&D numbers are horrible. Even much worse than my pessimistic self thought they would be!
Long term this won't matter, but short term its concerning. 50K cars in transit or inventory is alarming to me. I think we have to admit there is a demand issue going on now. I don't think its just a Tesla demand issue but an auto industry issue, even BYD is down like 40% for Q1. Still I think its clear by now the demand problem is real.
Megapacks are still climbing nicely, and FSD is getting joyfully good, but I'm not even sure 2 million deliveries for 2024 is in the cards now. Not with this start to the year. I can only hope Tesla beats P&D for whole of last year in 2024 at this rate.
Should present a GREAT buying opportunity for us HOLD'ers though!
I'm very skeptical many people will use their car as a robotaxi even if it is capable of doing so. When someone can be drunk, tired, or otherwise incapable of driving, and the car can safely and legally get you to your destination, that is when FSD sales will take off. I think we'll get there, but not for another couple years (some technical, but mostly legal).
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