Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[scaesare]

I have no aversion to using Tesla’s network because it doesn’t follow me around with the car. I certainly hope they build a robust and profitable EV charging network to further adoption.

You may be misunderstanding the point of my post. I’m not willing to buy another Tesla automobile because I don’t want to be associated with the brand every time I drive somewhere and I don’t want it front and center at home and work. This may be an interesting data point for investors.

I’ll use whatever charging network is most practical with my next car because I won’t be regularly seen with the brand. Just like when I buy gasoline for my F150 or my bike I’m sure it’s going to some unsavory company but I don’t drive around with an Exxon logo bolted to the tailgate.

So when you and/or your car are sitting next to this for half an hour while dozens of cars pull in and out and people walk by?:

For an ownership stance you seem to be taking on a matter of principle, it seems a little incongruous to not have a similar stance on charging... because it would be inconvenient?

 

[Ellec]

So no one guessed correctly on deliveries (except @Krugerrand ). Which is why I don't pay much attention to them. Also one quarter is noise when you are holding very long term. From a selfish point of view I am happy with the stock drop as I will be continuing my accumulation next week. A few years of suppressed stock price just means the next leg up will have the force of 10 nukes (thanks shorties). This is a gift for those without severe myopia

 

[GhostSkater]

First nudes of Cybertruck pack

There seems to be a lot of space on top of the cells, or the bottom

The top of the pack is usually made of steel on other Teslas, the bottom aluminum so it melts and the pack drops in the unlikely event of a fire, making it easier to extinguish it

Maybe that huge gap is for safety, specifically considering off road use

Either that or we will have longer 4680s

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775245471868473551

 

[indysurfer]

Somehow I am reminded of this classic Seinfeld episode.

 

[GOVA]

Error 404. Disaster NOT found.

Thanks to all for participating.

 

[Krugerrand]

Sadly, this makes me a nobody...

but, they do often say "nobody is perfect" don't they?

Same. Be okay being a nobody. Saves on bodyguard salaries for starters.

 

[GhostSkater]

Wait just a bunch of messages just got deleted? Including a lot that were on topic? Just in between the mess

I usually get a notification when that happens

 

[ke6jph]

OK, some napkin math on batteries and Q1 margins, here goes nothing. Maybe not as Bat as you Tink.

Assuming a simple 50K vehicles short in Q1 and a 75 kWh pack size (maybe less on ave). That's about 50K x 75kWh = 3,750 MWh of Batteries not put in vehicles this quarter.

Stationary in Q1 delivered "4,053 MWh of energy storage products", so QoQ Storage growth may have been easily sourced from the drop in Auto to take up some slack.

Impact on Margins?

Well, "Tesla deployed 3.2 GWh in Q4 2023", so about .850 GWh more Storage this quarter from last gives 0.85/3.2 x 100 = 26% increase in growth... if my numbers are even close, I'll take it!

In this chart below, we see the margins are higher for Storage (source not verified but this could also get even better once China Factory is complete for more volume storage).

View attachment 1034688

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750948698383917185

So while there's a loss in 50K vehicles, the gold for Tesla may have shifted to feed Storage growth in Q1 where margins are about 5% better than Auto. (Somebody verify?) Overall a better position, especially if they remain battery constrained overall.

This tells me that Tesla should consider exiting the auto industry to focus on Storage and Energy, but it's a really good thing they're not all about money! And if battery utilization in Storage is better than my car sitting in the garage, this is also good news. Fortunately, FSD "Unsupervised" will kick in someday and take care of some of those "static" Batteries out there sittin' around.

Grok would be a nice add to the vehicle and Optimus. Lots of stuff (always) coming, so hang in there folks.

Love the thought…….
I did not take it as “gee we should not have made as many cars….” but I looked at the thought as “look at the comparative battery capacity sold/installed as *making up for the lost car sales* !
This is the thought that I came away with……
And look at the estimated margins!

 

[GatorMeat]

Exactly. That's why the first question should be "Why can't Tesla get car buyers to even consider getting Teslas when they can afford them?!".

Far too many people who live close to Tesla service centers are buying ICE/PHEV that are worse than Tesla on all fronts (ask my 65 y-o father about his 2024 Lexus NX 450h+ F SPORT).

It's 101 marketing to ensure your mass-market products appeal to your target before you expand into new geographies.

My sister traded her 2018 X on the same PHEV Lexus. She went back to Lexus bc the X sounded like it was falling apart over every bump and the superchargers she used were sketchy and she didn't feel safe.

 

[Xd85]

Error 404. Disaster NOT found.

Thanks to all for participating.

anybody comment on volume? 105M shares doesn't seem like a big exit, and no potshots at the circuit breaker.

 

[Stormy24]

anybody comment on volume? 105M shares doesn't seem like a big exit, and no potshots at the circuit breaker.

Not much worse than a normal down day.

 

[Krugerrand]

So no one guessed correctly on deliveries (except @Krugerrand ). Which is why I don't pay much attention to them. Also one quarter is noise when you are holding very long term. From a selfish point of view I am happy with the stock drop as I will be continuing my accumulation next week. A few years of suppressed stock price just means the next leg up will have the force of 10 nukes (thanks shorties). This is a gift for those without severe myopia

But you’re paying attention to me now, right!?

 

[Musskiah]

Q220 - large P/D drop from prev Q
Q320 - huge P/D jump to new ATH

Q222 - large P/D drop from prev Q
Q322 - huge P/D jump to new ATH

Q124 - large P/D drop from prev Q
Q224 - predictably huge P/D jump to new ATH

You can also see that, currently, inventory as Days of Deliveries (green) are finally back to the average from 2016-2019, right around 28 is right where we should be.

 

[Musskiah]

I have changed my Title and my Location. If you need a lift, I'm your Huckleberry.

 

[MP3Mike]

But you would think after all this time it would know what an advanced green arrow left turn thingy is. It’s not a regression. It has never recognized them. Just pointing out that unless there is a car in front it can follow its full stop, end of ride for any robotaxi client if it is the lead car. If there is a driver in the car a nudge on the go pedal and it goes. But without a driver that’s where the passengers get out cause it ain’t moving. . It has been suggested to me that this is a Canadian thing but I have no idea.

I had to look it up, as I had never heard of that before. I don't think we have any flashing green lights in the US. So there likely isn't any, or enough, training data on them yet for FSD to know what to do.

 

[jerry33]

I don't think most people will put their cars into the Robotaxi fleet either. I do however expect Tesla to put a LOT of cars into the Robotaxi fleet!

Given how Uber does not work in my area, it might actually make some money for me.

 

[Ellec]

But you’re paying attention to me now, right!?

Always!

 

[AndrewZ]

Q220 - large P/D drop from prev Q
Q320 - huge P/D jump to new ATH

Q222 - large P/D drop from prev Q
Q322 - huge P/D jump to new ATH

Q124 - large P/D drop from prev Q
Q224 - predictably huge P/D jump to new ATH

You can also see that, currently, inventory as Days of Deliveries (green) are finally back to the average from 2016-2019, right around 28 is right where we should be.
View attachment 1034730

Q220 and Q222 drops were related to COVID shutdowns, and the inventory trends were quite different at the time

 

[Usain]

So when you and/or your car are sitting next to this for half an hour while dozens of cars pull in and out and people walk by?:

View attachment 1034716

For an ownership stance you seem to be taking on a matter of principle, it seems a little incongruous to not have a similar stance on charging... because it would be inconvenient?

I get what both of you are saying.

But I'll just point out that it's really, really hard to live in a world where your purchase choices also reflect your personal morality.

There are certain companies I won't do business with. There are even certain foods I won't eat. But I'll admit that all these choices are somewhat arbitrary. Everyone has to draw their own ethical lines that they won't cross.

For some, it's Tesla. For others, it's a bank or a grocery chain. I don't disparage anyone for the lines they draw. These choices are tough.

 

[jerry33]

We had a ford decide to make a 3 point turn in the middle of the street yesterday. Bad decision on his part. But anyway, car waited patiently while he screwed around. Once it was clear it went thru. Nice.

But you would think after all this time it would know what an advanced green arrow left turn thingy is. It’s not a regression. It has never recognized them. Just pointing out that unless there is a car in front it can follow its full stop, end of ride for any robotaxi client if it is the lead car. If there is a driver in the car a nudge on the go pedal and it goes. But without a driver that’s where the passengers get out cause it ain’t moving. . It has been suggested to me that this is a Canadian thing but I have no idea.

Just an observation. Cheers.

There are some advance greens in my neck of the woods. Not nearly enough (IMHO) but some.