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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
IMO, TSLA might be in a world of hurt for a while.
Earnings estimates are coming in around $0.4 - $0.5 of EPS. Annualized that's around $2. At current share price, that's a running PE ratio of 85.
TTM non-GAAP PE ratio would be around 70. These are high figures, usually kept for companies with very high earnings growth. Much higher than other tech stocks like NVDA.
That could be fine, if the market is valuing a high certainty of future earnings growth and discounting backwards.
High certainty, as say, a next-gen consumer vehicle.
NOT a robotaxi vehicle.
As much as bulls in here don't want to acknowledge, but the road to L5 autonomy is filled with uncertainty. Yes, one day they will get there, but in which year that happens is highly uncertain. No one can know when they will 100x their reliability. Yes that's right, the software will have to reduce interventions by 100x of the current level to even get close.
Now you may be a long term holder and not be concerned exactly when that happens, and that's fine. But Wall Street institutional investors are absolutely not basing their valuation models heavily on autonomy. They were hoping for automotive growth via a lower priced consumer product.
Now that you've taken that away, many won't invest at the current share price. It's simply too high without autonomy priced in some.
With such poor earnings growth, I expect the stock to take a dip after the latest earnings. Then there will be a run up into the 8/8 event on hype along with the fact FSD disengagements may continue to show a massive drop.
But then if earnings stay poor, there will be another selloff when folks realize the rate of improvement in the has slown down (which it will at some point).
Yes some of this is conjecture. But make so mistake - Musk is pivoting the company to be mostly dependent on autonomy success, and that will make the share price more volatile for years.
I agree. This robotaxi announcement is not going to materially impact people's reaction to earnings, but over time if good news on FSD comes out, the stock is going to rally. I was going to buy a bit after Q1 earnings and more after Q2 earnings, but maybe I'll go half and half.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
How did he manage to post that four days late?
(actually very cool, looking forward to the date)
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
3. Since it drives so much better and handles many more cases that 11 vomited on, even a moderate or active user will use it in many more places.
Krugerrand
Meow
You’re newer here. Let’s just say there have been a lot of us with nuts bigger than an elephant’s in our heads and in our pants. We’re all quite happy and grateful for our level of luck. Though, we will argue we did more research than people today can even imagine. We’ve forgotten more about Tesla than most people will ever know.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I was just reading one of the interior pages of my vehicle manual (this excerpt happened to be in Portuguese). This is relevant for those concerned that most Tesla vehicles would be unsuitable as a Robotaxi given the lack of auto-closing doors.
For those not aware, every Tesla since 2014 has self-closing doors, not just Model X. Verbatim, from my manual (translated from Portuguese to English by Yours Truly):
"Every Tesla manufactured since 2014 comes Robotaxi-equipped with self-closing doors. To enable the auto door-closing feature:
1. Remove all babies and squirrels from around the vehicle.
2. Ensure your Full-Self-Driving (Supervised) driver mode setting is set to "Aggressive".
3. Engage Full-Self-Driving (Supervised).
437 kW of power will be applied to the vehicle's drive system automatically. Your Tesla will execute a confident right turn, followed by a confident left turn. You will notice that your Tesla's doors are now fully closed. Should any door remain open, remove the squirrel or baby from the door opening, then engage the feature again.
For those not aware, every Tesla since 2014 has self-closing doors, not just Model X. Verbatim, from my manual (translated from Portuguese to English by Yours Truly):
"Every Tesla manufactured since 2014 comes Robotaxi-equipped with self-closing doors. To enable the auto door-closing feature:
1. Remove all babies and squirrels from around the vehicle.
2. Ensure your Full-Self-Driving (Supervised) driver mode setting is set to "Aggressive".
3. Engage Full-Self-Driving (Supervised).
437 kW of power will be applied to the vehicle's drive system automatically. Your Tesla will execute a confident right turn, followed by a confident left turn. You will notice that your Tesla's doors are now fully closed. Should any door remain open, remove the squirrel or baby from the door opening, then engage the feature again.
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Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Approximately 90% (!) of the first Billion miles were driven since September of last year. That's only 7 months. I would not be surprised if it doubles from 1B to 2B miles by August.
Everyone say it with me now: "Nonlinearity!"
Krugerrand
Meow
Well, that’s bs. No mention of kittens. (Unless your translation from Portuguese sucks)
No one knows. Not Ark, not Tesla.
Ask a cab driver or Uber driver how much they earn in a month. It's variable.
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dhanson865
Well-Known Member
This reveal is still 4 months and 3 days away. And that will still be less than 6 months every day between now and August 8th 2024.
Well, it's clear Elon is a dog person. (Hi Marvin! Hi Floki!). I doubt "the cat" agrees with that sentiment....and maybe when the cat finally doesn't agree with Elon on one single thing.
So, time to buy!
If robotaxis are four months away, why is Tesla continuing to sell cars at all? Why not keep all the cars for themselves?
jhm
Well-Known Member
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Extrapolate from this site. Honestly, not sure of the source of this data, but it is at 1B and was just below a few days ago.
Whole Mars keeps posting the miles from here on X.
Musskiah
DisGruntled
Elon replied to this James Douma post "You understand, but few do."
This is a long format conversation with Douma, but I think it was insightful.
This is a long format conversation with Douma, but I think it was insightful.
I don't doubt any of that for one minute, especially that elephant-nut thing.
Well done.
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