Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

This is just additional income until robotaxis are launched at scale (not just unveiled). Also, he has a margin of 90%. So whether it is revenue or profit is marginal.

Aaand..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778881361249800203

And so it begins! If Tesla is confident enough to push adoption with a price drop, then we really are in a great spot with FSD!

 

[EQC_]

I agree. A longer battery and drivetrain warranty would help the next wave of adopters make the switch. ...

There's something interesting and complicated there.

*Most* people buying a new car aren't going to hit the 8-year, 120,000 mile warranty. So, for many folks, increasing the warranty won't affect them...at least not directly.

But, a person buying the used EV would probably like some assurance that they won't be faced with a big expense in a year or two if the battery fails outside warranty.

So, the increased warranty might help the used market...which would then provide some assurance to purchasers of new vehicles that they'll be able to sell their car at a good price down the road. So...yeah, sortof indirect and roundabout, but a new group might be drawn into purchasing a new EV if the warranties were longer.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Seriously. Every Tesla ad campaign should say "Free oil changes for life". It would cause a stir in the public consciousness.

I disagree because that makes it sound like they need oil changes but they are free. I think it would be better to emphasize "no oil changes for life".

 

[Artful Dodger]

personally I do not see it playing out that way. Most people can't afford FSD today at $12K

FSD is $199/mth now, but it likely will go to $99/mth before the free trial ends at the end of April. At the same time, the FSD purchase price may be lowered to $6K (including several tiers to benefit grandfathered FSD owners ie: transferability). Take-rate could go to 25% in Q2. That's real cabbage, real soon.

Don't doubt Elon's commitment to an FSD future for Tesla. Around the time of autonomy investor day (April 2019), Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley asked Elon a question during the Q&A session. AJ asked 'what proportion of Tesla's capital investment was to support full self-driving'? Elon replied 100%. Translation: everything that Tesla has done to this point has led up to FSD.

Look at your Gant chart. FSD may take the longest to be fully finished so it needs to be started first. Elon started with the FSD computer hdw project in October 2016. That's how far ahead he thinks. That's how committed he is to making FSD a reality. Meanwhile automotive, insurance, energy, and even robotics and AI will keep the store open while FSD is in the kitchen.

What will emerge at the end of this process is gargantuan, a true juggernaut. It's only a matter of time, the end result is clear.

 

[Krugerrand]

That was just a sales pitch.

Many mocked it at the time. Of course they will have to drop prices (and continue to drop prices) to increase adoption.

Actually it was the truth at the time and for quite some time. FSD rose all the way to $15,000. But hey, let’s play the troll’s game and pretend that never happened. Let’s pretend that circumstances never change, therefore outcomes can change. Let’s pretend that everything in life is static.

 

[2daMoon]

I disagree because that makes it sound like they need oil changes but they are free. I think it would be better to emphasize "no oil changes for life".

This was addressed with the offering of "Over the Air oil changes for life" wasn't it?

 

[2daMoon]

FSD is $199/mth now, but it likely will go to $99/mth before the free trial ends at the end of April. At the same time, the FSD purchase price may be lowered to $6K (including several tiers to benefit grandfathered FSD owners ie: transferability). Take-rate could go to 25% in Q2. That's real cabbage, real soon.

Don't doubt Elon's commitment to an FSD future for Tesla. Around the time of autonomy investor day (April 2019), Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley asked Elon a question during the Q&A session. AJ asked 'what proportion of Tesla's capital investment was to support full self-driving'? Elon replied 100%. Translation: everything that Tesla has done to this point has led up to FSD.

Look at your Gant chart. FSD may take the longest to be fully finished so it needs to be started first. Elon started with the FSD computer hdw project in October 2016. That's how far ahead he thinks. That's how committed he is to making FSD a reality. Meanwhile automotive, insurance, energy, and even robotics and AI will keep the store open while FSD is in the kitchen.

What will emerge at the end of this process is gargantuan, a true juggernaut. It's only a matter of time, the end result is clear.

Who's this?

They better catch up on their homework.

 

[Krugerrand]

FSD is $199/mth now, but it likely will go to $99/mth before the free trial ends at the end of April.

Welcome back.

FYI, the price HAS already changed to 99/month.

 

[Skipdd]

It’s all in the book, Innovators Dilemma. Clayton Christiansen.

Ironically Christensen argued that Tesla was not a disruptive innovation but a sustaining innovation. So, perhaps not the best model to follow. Tesla vs. Clayton Christensen's Idea of Tech Disruption - CleanTechnica

OTOH, I found Geoffrey Moore’s books to provide a better path for determining next steps. YMMV.

 

[jerry33]

What is the national rate for table saw injuries!? Like are people submerging them in bathtubs, like toasters?

There was a worker during our remodel in 2021 who cut off his hand on another job site. People who work in construction often remove the safety devices. Just glad it wasn't on our site.

 

[Dutchie]

When Tesla need to 100% nail roundabouts, they just need to release FSD in the UK. We have more roundabouts here than there are grains of sand in the sahara. We can supply the training data!

You only drive the wrong way around

 

[Musskiah]

I thought about this some more. Given that there is an entrance to the PB from the road you were on, before the traffic circle, why, after seeing the car was route planning either around the circle, wrong way or not, would you even have let it go past said entrance? Makes no sense.


View attachment 1038119

Good question. I engaged FSD right before stopping at the circle entrance.

 

[EQC_]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1262530589506273280

Elon's text:
"The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self-driving capability with regulatory approval. [At] that point, the value of FSD is probably somewhere in excess of $100,000."

I think it's important to note that in one sentence he says "price" and in the next sentence he says "value," which are two very different words. I don't take this as Elon implying that Tesla intended to one day charge $100K for FSD on a consumer Model 3.

I think we are all wondering how this will play out. I suspect there will eventually be pricing tiers for mileage and/or personal use vs. business use. To me, the "in excess of $100K" value feels like it's more for an unlimited version of FSD that can be used for robotaxi/business purposes...and I could very much see price for that being way more than today's $99/month or $12K price to purchase. But until there are true cababilities suitable for business use, I can see the price bouncing around a bit to find the right level for consumers to purchase and/or subscribe...and that seems quite reasoble.

 

[Mengy]

FSD is $199/mth now, but it likely will go to $99/mth before the free trial ends at the end of April. At the same time, the FSD purchase price may be lowered to $6K (including several tiers to benefit grandfathered FSD owners ie: transferability). Take-rate could go to 25% in Q2. That's real cabbage, real soon.

Don't doubt Elon's commitment to an FSD future for Tesla. Around the time of autonomy investor day (April 2019), Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley asked Elon a question during the Q&A session. AJ asked 'what proportion of Tesla's capital investment was to support full self-driving'? Elon replied 100%. Translation: everything that Tesla has done to this point has led up to FSD.

Look at your Gant chart. FSD may take the longest to be fully finished so it needs to be started first. Elon started with the FSD computer hdw project in October 2016. That's how far ahead he thinks. That's how committed he is to making FSD a reality. Meanwhile automotive, insurance, energy, and even robotics and AI will keep the store open while FSD is in the kitchen.

What will emerge at the end of this process is gargantuan, a true juggernaut. It's only a matter of time, the end result is clear.

Hey Artful, welcome back!

And you are very correct, it actually just happened today:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778881361249800203

I agree with you about Tesla becoming gargantuan, even my very conservative math predicts a massive valuation with FSD + RT's in the future.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nice to have a fellow DCAer here, My broker has fairly high transaction fees due to exchange rate (GBPUSD) so monthly is better for me. However it gives me access to an ISA to hold some of my shares tax free, a UK thing. 1 share a day is interesting he must pay almost no fees.

Read about 'Norbert's Gambit' for FOREX.

 

[Xd85]

What is the national rate for table saw injuries!? Like are people submerging them in bathtubs, like toasters?

On a serious note: didn’t know they existed and will now consider one of their products since The Mountain is in need of one. Thanks.

Limb saw contact 27000 injuries last tallied by CPSC. Googling revealed approx 40000 vehicle crash fatalities. Not the same type of injury but a few hundred bucks tech vs a few thousand.

Glad to make your mountain a safer place

 

[EQC_]

Actually it was the truth at the time and for quite some time. FSD rose all the way to $15,000. But hey, let’s play the troll’s game and pretend that never happened. Let’s pretend that circumstances never change, therefore outcomes can change. Let’s pretend that everything in life is static.

Ah yes, all part of the troll's game of acting like any statement or tweet Elon ever made is a "promise" that must be kept until the heat death of the universe. Any deviation results in "Elon lied and he/Tesla broke another promise!"

And, don't forget that if Elon doesn't respond to some random troll's complaint, the game continues by declaring that "Elon REFUSED to explain why he did this!"

 

[thx1139]

I guess my $15K purchase of FSD on our S was just a 151 month prepayment. I will make out like a bandit after 152 months.

 

[jschwefel]

An ever so sarcastic and unjustified by any logic but still irresistible correction:
No government actually "gets their money for taxpayers". Those governments themselves creat the money coin it, print it, multiply it as they choose. Taxpayers don't do that, it's just a way of making them have fewer goods and services so the governments can have more fo them. Today, there is zero backing for the US Government other than the government itself. Within living memory of some, like my 99 year-old mother-in-law, it was not that way. The US$ then was backed by silver and a US dollar was a 'silver certificate'. Still valid g'gold certificates' continue to exist. Richard Nixon finally nixed backing...and nobody much noticed!
(I'm sorry about this. It's Friday night so my mind wanders. (FWIW I was in graduate school the day he did that, in a seminar with an exceptional Gentleman named Scott E Pardee of FOMC fame, one of the most memorable experiences in my life.)

Yes, and does anyone remember the price of gold when we nixed the standard? Answer: $35 per ounce!!!

Today gold touched over $2400 per ounce! What’s changed over the last 50 years? An ounce of gold is still an ounce of gold, and technically it has no more value today than it did back then.

The value of the dollar is what’s changed! The $35 dollars that’s been in my Dad’s safe since the early 1970s is still worth $35, and the ounce of gold next to it is still an ounce of gold, but it’s worth a lot more than the $35 he paid for it.

THIS is inflation, and despite what our politicians tell us, THEY control it! Unfortunately, it hurts those living paycheck to paycheck the most. People who are able to buy gold or real estate or S&P 500 Index funds will do okay, because over time those assets grow in value relative to the dollar.

 

[geometro]

Ironically Christensen argued that Tesla was not a disruptive innovation but a sustaining innovation. So, perhaps not the best model to follow. Tesla vs. Clayton Christensen's Idea of Tech Disruption - CleanTechnica

OTOH, I found Geoffrey Moore’s books to provide a better path for determining next steps. YMMV.

You are on this… I got my b-school readings mixed up. I was thinking Moore, but confused him with Christiansen. Thanks for correcting me and I concur!