Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chunky Jr.]

Why would we want Tesla to sell many low-margin vehicles instead of focusing on the much higher RTs?

Couple reasons :
• subscription income - FSD, premium connectivity, supercharging, ...
• more Teslas on the road is better for the mission (ie fewer ICE cars)

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I hope very much that this will prove to have been a mistake.

That's very noble of you. I'm pretty sure if I sold all of my TSLA stock I would be hoping I was right. What was your reasoning? Bad customer service experience ala @neroden?

 

[sunwarriors]

Probably some will and some won’t. And many more will own a car but also use robotaxis some of the time rather than taking their own vehicle. Bear in mind that the demographics on this forum, and I think probably in the broader investment community, skew old and rich. In the US at least, Gen Z has shown the lowest interest in car ownership since the beginning of the mass-market automobile era and the percentage of young adults and teenagers

Am I the only one who mostly sees RTs as a replacement of Uber? Gen Z already doesn't need a car with rideshare services. I've always felt Uber drivers were the lowest paid folks with zero benefits. Some websites state they make $50/hour, but don't add in cost of car/maintenance/gas, etc...

This website had what they sorta make:

How Much Do Uber Drivers Make? Pay & Salary for 2024

Learn exactly how much an Uber driver makes on average, per mile, per ride, per year, and in specific cities like Seattle.

therideshareguy.com

Fast food workers can make $20/hour now at McDonalds.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Because one does not necessarily indicate the other, yet that was the basis D&S used to validate his previous posts.

I was merely pointing out this did not seem like the run of the mill, near-annual trimming of redundant positions that has happened before.

You (and others) chose to run with "omg D&S is saying Tesla is in dire straits, what a moron, let's down vote him to oblivion." It's not my problem if you choose to assign intent to posts by inventing a narrative I never stated.

 

[Electroman]

Can someone post the link on how to vote for this Elon's package ?

 

[cab]

Do people really do single store "Grocery Runs"? Everyone I know stops at multiple stores, so I guess that falls into the "Multi-Errand" category. But each stop is longer as it is actually shopping, not just picking something up. A typical run for our family is 4-5 hours. Which would require keeping the same Robo-Taxi reserved for the entire 4-5 hour period. At some stops I may stay in the car and watch Netflix... How much would that trip cost? (How much are they going to charge for parked time? Does it cost more if you stay in the vehicle with HVAC running while using the Infotainment system?)

Personally, I could see us only using a Robo-Taxi a couple times a year. (About how often we use Uber now.)

In any "long wait" scenario the Robo-taxi would not likely hang around for you (and you wouldn't want to pay for that), but (much like an airport) it could hang around for the next fare - imagine a giant Costco parking lot on a Saturday with RTs coming and going (dropping person A off while picking up person B).
Regardless, the taxi might just sit idle (w/o anyone paying) until called for in very low traffic times. As to the model where you are sitting in the car, doubt that would be feasible. In the interest of my own example of that, we have often done multi-store runs where I am little more than the, well...taxi-driver for my wife (i.e. taker her to Ulta, then to Soft Surroundings, then to get prescription, etc.)! In those cases, heck, I'm not even needed...Robo-Taxi to the rescue. I assume later Optimus will replace me entirely...

 

[DarkandStormy]

Not sure if it's been discussed, but how is Tesla planning to grow volumes in Q2 and the second half of 2024? They just ended inventory discounts and raised prices $1k on April 1st. They previously had a demand problem (supply > sales) as @Troy has noted since late 2022. Increasing price only decreases demand if you aren't materially changing the product you're selling.

Any theories on how (or if) Tesla will grow unit volumes the rest of the year?

 

[jerry33]

No.

Look into just how long it took for any of those things to go from "exists" to "mandated by law"

It's generally measured in decades. It was 78 years for seatbelts.

When Ford first put in seatbelts, sales slumped because people thought Fords were unsafe due to needing seatbelts.

 

[Krugerrand]

Does a decision to initially not have steering wheel have to motivate the AI staff? If one thing I learnt, Tesla is great at adapting fast. They don't have to burn the boats.

I don’t know what the big deal is here. It’s a steering wheel. Make it removable. Solved. One vehicle that can do either; drive by human/drive by a safer not-human. Single production line.

Down the road, when everyone stops clutching their costume jewelry, and as Tesla always dies, adapt like you say the vehicles/create separate lines/whatyheheckever.

 

[MP3Mike]

Can someone post the link on how to vote for this Elon's package ?

When it is time you will get proxy instructions from your broker. Depending on options you have selected you may get mailed the proxy materials as well as a ballot to vote and return. Otherwise, you will likely get a control number to use on the ProxyVote website to place your vote. (Each broker makes that available a little differently. Some email it to you, others make it available in a "shareholder action" section on their website.)

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I love the idea of my car being able to drive for me when I can't drive (few beers) or don't want to (lazy, sleepy, don't feel like it). I'm not a huge fan of being forced to have the car drive for me all the time. I enjoy driving and would want to be able to do that when I feel like it.

If Tesla is going almost all in on autonomy, that is great, but I hope they have multiple use cases in mind and not a one size fits all approach. Sometimes you just need a ride across town, but other times you need to take your family to the airport with a bunch of bags, or go on a road trip with a bunch of equipment.

I would expect Tesla to do more with inductive charging so a RT could easily charge itself.

 

[insaneoctane]

Kinda wondering if Tesla of late is shaking many of the bulls in this thread....maybe I should re-strategize my DCA approach....seems like we could go quite a bit lower over the next several months....I may need to be buying for many months....

 

[Krugerrand]

Btw, with this recent run down in TSLA...any chance it becomes a benefit to hiring new employees for the next run-up?

I don’t want them hiring employees that decide to apply based on the SP and a chance of becoming monetarily rich. That’s not why the original employees joined. It shouldn’t be why new people join the company because those are the kind that end up as the bottom 10%.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Btw, with this recent run down in TSLA...any chance it becomes a benefit to hiring new employees for the next run-up?

One would be more concerned about the employees who are presently working for Tesla. The way this layoff went down was haphazard and unorganized. Going to work to find your card key doesn't work. Layedoff and waiting for the next bus back to Killeen or Kyle. That was unprofessional and unnecessary. Oh, and a lot of hard-working and experienced employees who got good evals were let go too. Workers in Austin are still shaken up by it. This was not a cull of the bottom dwellers, no matter what Tesla's press release states.

Lets put aside that these are humans like you and me, who enjoyed their jobs and took pride in working for Tesla. The person who can assemble the Y door in their sleep and install it level many times in a 12-hour shift was just let go, and is going to be replaced by a newbie who is cheaper by the hour. That is smart?

Many here take solace in the fact Tesla continues to act like a start-up company. That is not the compliment one thinks it is.

 

[Krugerrand]

So what does Tesla Energy place such great emphasis on 65+ countries?

Utilities | Tesla

Every year, electrical grids around the world add more renewable energy. Learn more about how Tesla utility-scale batteries and software controls can dispatch this energy, lower lifecycle costs and create a more stable and sustainable grid.

www.tesla.com

The first major TE commercial placement was in South Australia, the Hornsdale Power Reserve. Tesla has huge emphasis on global energy placements Utility and Commercial.

Aspirations aren’t necessarily what can ‘we do today’.

Hornsdale came about via *gasp* that social media platform and was between two men with the ability to make it happen asap. It was a wonderful proof of concept. Realistically, Tesla was in no way positioned, nor are they today, to fill even a fraction of the demand it created.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

We also discussed the interplay between FSD on your PERSONAL car and Robo-Taxis

Sometimes I wonder if RT is more of a concept than an actual product. ie FSD on your personal car that is legal to take you from A to B w/o a driver.

 

[cusetownusa]

While I tend to agree with your post, the $25K Tesla is quite a bit more since it requires other significant costs, ie insurance, electricity, registration, tires, cleaning, etc. TCO is significant even for a $25K vehicle.

Well, it could make more sense to get used EV that was $25k when new. But I agree...if RT were really reliable, then 2 cars between 3 or 4 people could be doable and may make sense for a lot of people. But they would have to be much more reliable compared to what Ubers/Lyft is like in my area.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Not sure if it's been discussed, but how is Tesla planning to grow volumes in Q2 and the second half of 2024? They just ended inventory discounts and raised prices $1k on April 1st. They previously had a demand problem (supply > sales) as @Troy has noted since late 2022. Increasing price only decreases demand if you aren't materially changing the product you're selling.

Any theories on how (or if) Tesla will grow unit volumes the rest of the year?

Here's one area (maybe not the most popular link, but who else has the guts to post it, right?)
The world is still untapped.

Where can you buy a Tesla car in India? EV giant starts hunt for showroom site

Tesla is reportedly hunting for sites in New Delhi and Mumbai for its showrooms, apart from a service hub in each of the two cities.

auto.hindustantimes.com

 

[EQC_]

That LateAuto articles has its errors and flaws but thinking that Cybertruck is another "Model X" moment is quite reasonable. Boredom is Musk biggest enemy and we don't know how it would have played out, but I'm sure there is a better present out there in the multiverse where Model X didn't happen and Musk just went straight to the ICE jugular with the 3 a couple years in advance. He actually said that in retrospect he wouldn't have bult that if he knew how difficult it was.

Maybe the Cybertruck is the same and it delayed the "Model 2" a couple of years too. Also GFs are a politics game and now Musk with X is not neutral at all, I'm sure there are many delays that couldn't have happened if he wasn't so exposed...

Anyway, I'm not too worried about the autonomy pivot: I don't see as a "bet the farm", but in 6 months time we'll now more. The SP is likely gonna suffer.

A few thoughts...mostly that there are so many variables that are tough to quantify but often get completely ignored or downplayed when assigning "blame" for Tesla's timing.

1) I think part of the "delay" in the Model X was actually that the Model S had much higher demand than expected. Tesla and Elon have never made this connection, but I think the early expectation was that the Model S would have demand for about 10,000 per year. Model X was revealed in February 2012, before any S's were delivered -- the first S deliveries were in June of 2012 (at least according to some quick google work). The first Model X was delivered in late 2015, but in that in-between time, the Model S production was ramping up well above that 10,000 per year number. I suspect that, in real-time, Tesla was moving resources and plans around to ramp up the Model S processes and put fewer resources into the Model X. No real sense in spending money on the difficult task of adding a second model when you haven't yet done the somewhat easier work of making production meet demand on the existing model.

2) The timing of the Model 3 was still reliant on battery availability...which really meant Giga Nevada and Panasonic. We know that during the Model 3 ramp, there was some sloshing back and forth, with Tesla's production hell sometimes being the limiting factor, and Panasonic's ramp of batteries sometimes being the limiting factor. Of course, I have no idea how things would have played out if the Model X had not come before the Model 3...but Giga Nevada was truly needed before the Model 3 would make economic sense.

3) I think sortof similar with Cybertruck and Model 2 -- the Model 2 also needs even more massive quantities of cheaper batteries, and preferably US-made for the tax credit reasons, at least in the US market. So, yes, there was some resource draw to the cybertruck, but I also don't ignore the fact that even if Tesla had put everything into Model 2 a few years ago, it's not like there were enough batteries available to make a million Model 2's in the US in, say, 2022 or 2023. Obviously, several years ago, Tesla started work to design/build their own cells, while simultaneously saying they would buy any and all qualified sells from suppliers too. So, what more could they do to get more cells in 2022 or 2023?

 

[Mengy]

I don't think it's a rumor any more. Elon has pretty much confirmed that Tesla is all-in on robotaxi with his "balls to the wall" post.

I agree that it's an extremely risky decision. But I also think it's the right one.

It very well might be the right choice, as a long term TSLA holder I want it to be the right choice.

I just fear it isn't. I selfishly want my stock to perform well, not languish in despair. Hope is not a strategy, and this course correction for Elon feels more like hope to me than sound strategy.

I do "hope" my gut feeling is terribly wrong though.