Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Anecdotally, but everyone I speak with that isn't very EV-experienced, has the following complaints:
1. Range - for some reason they believe they need 1000km range for no reason
2. Battery replacement cost which they take as a given after a certain number of years (6-8-10)

I think offering some way to alleviate concern #2 would go a long way for a lot of potential customers. Even if it is something like a guaranteed replacement price of 5000$ that can be spread over a number of years. This would remove all the fear mongering that the media loves to promote.

Another approach could be making the facts about battery degradation and replacement on currently offered models (among other things) easier to find when considering an EV.

Seems like I've seen data for busting EV myths on some .gov websites and from other trusted third-parties which could be convenient links to have in an FAQ section for all EV manufacturer's websites, and as part of ad campaigns.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Did you sell all your shares or just trimmed some %?
In my case, I sold half of my above $170, but man, the rest 50% still created a lot of pain this week.

Since I have moved to a more conservative phase of investing, I sold last at $200 almost all of my position (i keep some shares for sentimental reasons) when I mentioned in this thread my analysis for why the stock would drop to $150.

Well Tesla can make this 2k difference in price back in 1.5 years if they sub to FSD and supercharge. So now that FSD is somewhat of an actual product, you never want to reduce volume at such a critical time.

Yes the guarantee of $2k has now turned into a *maybe* which is fine, except it brings more uncertainty and therefore share price will reflect that.

Indeed, and Tesla made back this <5% price drop in just 6 months due to drop in raw material costs, and the normal annual drop in COGS.

Well Tesla has guided COGs reductions this year will be less than last year. Gross margins might dip a bit. Operating margins might be flat due to increased production rates though. It seems we are near the bottom.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Her fund has to maintain certain percentages, she can't just go all in on Tesla and hodl! Doesn't work that way.

It really isn’t complicated, like you say she has concentration targets = sell when high, buy when low (as determined by variances in concentration vs target rather than market timing). It would be interesting to see what ARK could do with a TSLA-only ETF, I’d buy some.

 

[Singuy]

Since I have moved to a more conservative phase of investing, I sold last at $200 almost all of my position (i keep some shares for sentimental reasons) when I mentioned in this thread my analysis for why the stock would drop to $150.



Yes the guarantee of $2k has now turned into a *maybe* which is fine, except it brings more uncertainty and therefore share price will reflect that.



Well Tesla has guided COGs reductions this year will be less than last year. Gross margins might dip a bit. Operating margins might be flat due to increased production rates though. It seems we are near the bottom.

You forgot to account for the increase in units moved. Every car is a word of mouth advertisement, getting skeptical friends and family members to experience fsd, and potentially getting more revenue if fsd becomes extremely good.

There's a 6 to 12 month lag between a friend or family who got a Tesla and the new person to be convinced to get a Tesla. Why? Because even when someone raves about their initial purchase, the most asked questions from skeptics are long time usage. Because the supercharger network/charging at home/300 mi is enough sounds good initially, but does it still sound good after a year? People wants to know and it's not some ad can answer. Good thing 86% of the people would buy again which means 86% of these people should be able to give skeptics a positive long term review.

Evs changes the way people live with their cars. It's a hard sell to the general(non early adopters) but once it's sold, they will be a lost ICE buyer forever. Theres a real fear to switch, because a car is tied directly to your livelihood. This is why you max vol now and then charge whatever the F you want later for the next replacement cycle. There's a reason why iphones are over 1k today and they are still selling record numbers.

 

[FreqFlyer]

This is big.............Real big.

Tennessee Volkswagen employees overwhelmingly vote to join United Auto Workers union

Employees at a Volkswagen factory in Chattanooga, Tennessee, overwhelmingly voted to join the United Auto Workers union Friday in a historic first test of the UAW’s renewed effort to organize nonunion factories. The union wound up getting 2,628 votes, or 73% of the ballots cast, compared with...

www.yahoo.com

 

[lafrisbee]

I assume at least some of those golf cart style EV's you're seeing are the GEM brand...but I think there are other similar brands with similar prices, and I am always shocked when I check the prices and see they are solidly in "real car" territory. The high prices for the incredibly low specs is why I think a lot of people really would go for a $15-$20K "real" EV even if the range was low, and even better if it qualified for the US tax credit.

I understand that thegolf carts fill a niche, and the extra small size and low speed have value in some neighborhoods. I could find one of those very useful for neighborhood use if they weren't so terribly overpriced by my standards. And even for neighborhood use, I'd prefer to have modern safety features so I had some protection from folks speeding in normal cars.


Example of what golf cart EV's apparently cost:

GEM e2: BASE price $15,240 USD PLUS $1,740 factory destination fee

• 2 seats
• 5 kW motor (that's right, less than 7 horsepower)
• 25mph top speed (it's a golf cart or sortof-road-legal car for neighborhood use)
• No doors (that option adds over $2,000)
• No radio (that option is over $700)
• No heat or AC
  • Heat looks to be a $600 option
• Lead acid type AGM battery good for about 30 miles at low speed
  • an optional 7.2 kWh Lithium Ion battery adds nearly $6,000 for about 50 miles at low speed
  • an optional 14.4 kWh Lithium Ion battery adds nearly $12,000 for about 100 miles at low speed
• 2 year / 8,000 mile battery warranty
  • The Lithium batteries get 7-year/30,000 mile warranties
• 1 kW charger.

Going up to the 4-seat GEM e4 raises the base price up to $17,500, with similar specs to the above.

Again, just shocking to me that a 4-seat electric golf cart, that can only go 25mph, with doors, and a 50 mile range can apparently be sold for an MSRP over $25,000 plus $1,740 destination. 100 miles at 25mph shoots the MSRP to over $30,000.

exactly...
Fools and their money.
But in all seriousness BYD should make one for $8k. It would be an opportunity to get their product in a consumer market they have no presence. If they are better than the "GEM" ones then the owners will eventually look at the EV's.

 

[Fred42]

Another approach could be making the facts about battery degradation and replacement on currently offered models (among other things) easier to find when considering an EV.

Seems like I've seen data for busting EV myths on some .gov websites and from other trusted third-parties which could be convenient links to have in an FAQ section for all EV manufacturer's websites, and as part of ad campaigns.

Education of consumers is not a useful approach. 'Just more BS.'

The hard fact of a better battery warranty (10 years/200,000 miles and transferable to the next owner?) would be helpful IMO.

 

[2daMoon]

Education of consumers is not a useful approach. 'Just more BS.'

The hard fact of a better battery warranty (10 years/200,000 miles and transferable to the next owner?) would be helpful IMO.

You would still have to educate the consumers about this as well, wouldn't you?

 

[jerry33]

A

As I said before, the while idea is to create FSD junkies. Addiction to FSD!

Too late--already hooked.

 

[2daMoon]

A

As I said before, the while idea is to create FSD junkies. Addiction to FSD!

This was the purpose of April's "first one's free" demo to everyone, wasn't it?

 

[DarkandStormy]

Since I have moved to a more conservative phase of investing, I sold last at $200 almost all of my position (i keep some shares for sentimental reasons) when I mentioned in this thread my analysis for why the stock would drop to $150.



Yes the guarantee of $2k has now turned into a *maybe* which is fine, except it brings more uncertainty and therefore share price will reflect that.



Well Tesla has guided COGs reductions this year will be less than last year. Gross margins might dip a bit. Operating margins might be flat due to increased production rates though. It seems we are near the bottom.

They're cutting production at Shanghai...

 

[Krugerrand]

They're cutting production at Shanghai...

We’re going to need a real source this time with a correct translation. Do you think you can do that this time?

 

[Tony73]

Not sure if this is good news or bad news.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781541775183610310

It looks like a good sign. He knows he can’t just call into this one. Hopefully he”ll take it seriously enough to prep

 

[Musskiah]

V12.3.2 went wide release March 29. We are now awaiting V12.3.5 download this week. The pace of software release is stunning. V13 just days away.

 

[DarkandStormy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781375886777831715

Shanghai production cut 30%.

We’re going to need a real source this time with a correct translation. Do you think you can do that this time?

Oh look...a previous post with exactly what you wanted.

Here's another one - 独家丨特斯拉上海工厂拟减产30%

 

[Krugerrand]

Oh look...a previous post with exactly what you wanted.

Here's another one - 独家丨特斯拉上海工厂拟减产30%

Oh, look. You posting the same bogus, incorrectly translated post again. Bravo, troll.

Try harder.

 

[Musskiah]

This may have been posted already. It's even more fascinating in light of the knowledge rumours that both XAI and Tesla EACH will soon have puchased 100,000 H100s. Grok+FSD=the way

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779558822543229221

 

[Rarity]

For entirely different reasons I sold SpaceX almost a year ago. The reasons had nothing to do with anything other than the implications of the shareholding method. It just added too much reporting complexity for my two countries of residence.

Yes, those shareholding methods leave a lot to be desired for many. It's a shame that better methods cannot be devised. Do you have a general view of Starlink and Tesla marketing methods?

 

[Musskiah]

Oh look...a previous post with exactly what you wanted.

Here's another one - 独家丨特斯拉上海工厂拟减产30%

Tesla’s Shanghai production unaffected by Musk’s lay-offs, say sources

Only a few dozen employees at the Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai were told to leave, representing a tiny portion of the workforce of 20,000 assembling Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, say two people with knowledge of the matter.

www.scmp.com

"Two sales managers in Shanghai said ‘quite a lot of’ colleagues had been made redundant in the past few days

Tesla’s job cuts in mainland China involved mainly sales staff and will not affect production at its Shanghai factory, which accounts for more than half of the carmaker’s total output, according to people with knowledge of the matter."

 

[TesslaBull]

Wonder how Tesla's YoY 1st quarter compares to the Automotive market in general?

I think most i.e. >50% of people have no idea Tesla's are as affordable as they are. Coworker was *shocked* that a 2021 low mileage Model Y long range are ~$30k. Many think Tesla are, in a general sense, very expensive. I would think some minimal advertising of the $299 lease for the model 3 would get massive response, along with putting the word out on how cheap a new Model Y is with tax credit.