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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Graphs only tell a part of the story. The other part is told by looking at the factors that influence them. Sorry, but I can't see Tesla resuming meaningful double digit growth anytime soon. Not without a new model and Model 2 is, for all intents and purposes, at least 3 years away - and that's me being quite optimistic for Tesla.

PS: I don't understand what part of my valuation you don't agree with. Do you not think Tesla is priced for perfect execution of FSD and steady sales growth? Why else do you think institutional investors would sell? The negative growth this year impacted their valuation models and the resulting price was (significantly) lower than the current trading price. So they sold.

You have made it abundantly clear that you can't see that.

Can we depend upon you to continue to reinforce the growing evidence of a vision problem through additional repetition?
 
You persist. There are no First Principles by your definition in Physics. Fundamental 'Fact' is limited to human understanding and all science evolves. First Principles are the most basic we can actually think we understand. Perhaps you need to study particle physics or astrophysics. Then you might begin to understand that mankind has no immutable truths. Immutable truth is the stuff of religion, not science.
You really should learn to understand Elon's own thinking on this subject. For him were there to be perfect knowledge (i.e. First Principles to you) there would be no ned for evolution in manufacturing, we would know it already.
You're persisting as well, arguing what exactly? I asked whether you really were saying that there are "First Principles" in marketing, which I contend is nonsense. I don't think you've answered that question? As I see it, you can do "first principles style" reasoning about anything if you simply discard the truth aspect -- dig down as deep as you're willing to go, declare it good enough, and reason from there. But that's style without substance. Truthiness.

What Elon operates on, as regards first principles, are the aspects of physics of which he is certain as regards whatever engineering issue is relevant. Does he (or I) think there's some absolute truth there? I don't think either of us care that much, as it's not relevant to the problem at hand. Although every time Elon talks about the simulation hypothesis it makes me think he's getting shaky on first principles being derived from physics.
 
What Elon operates on, as regards first principles, are the aspects of physics of which he is certain as regards whatever engineering issue is relevant. Does he (or I) think there's some absolute truth there? I don't think either of us care that much, as it's not relevant to the problem at hand. Although every time Elon talks about the simulation hypothesis it makes me think he's getting shaky on first principles being derived from physics.

It must be great having such a close, personal relationship with Elon.

Tell him Hi from all of us, and to keep on keeping on!
 
Now that´s good PR!

How popular is Consumer Reports in the US?

The googles tells me that Consumer Reports has 2.9 million paid members, and 11 million unique visitors per month.

I do feel like many of those who follow consumer reports are more safe and conservative with their purchases...perhaps they type that might typically favor Toyota or Lexus. So, in that sense, this could be an avenue to a few more conquests if those folks realize Teslas aren't just "expensive toys for the rich."

Of course, now we wait to see if Elon tweets it out, with enough clarity that Consumer Reports did the study (instead of just seeming like some internal Tesla analysis), and that will hit an audience of 180 million followers plus many many others.
 
In my book, ones who have not personally tried FSD, are not real investors and their argument is not based on first principles / first hand experience.

FWIW, as someone who has used FSD for as long as it has existed, and since V11 has been using it for the vast majority of his driving.... but as direct result of that experience does not believe Tesla RTs are coming this year (nor in any widespread sense for a number of years still)- I have to say I'm kind of disappointed in the # of times lately I see ANY post that isn't 10,000% uberbull positive met with "BUT HAVE YOU TRIED FSD?!"

I have. A lot. It's a fantastic L2 ADAS. It's not in any way a compelling counter-point to the valid concerns in other regards some folks have raised here lately. (Nor does it mean EVERY concern raised here is valid, but the continual pretending NONE of em are is...not a great look).

Hopefully the earnings call tomorrow will provided at least some modicum of answers and guidance to enable us to more rationally judge which concerns really have any legs or not.
 
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But it's not. Comparing for example BMW's YoY sales, they rose 1.1%. Mercedes, who's an established company, had sales dipping 6% YoY, while Tesla, the up and coming contender supposed to grow high double digit each year, had its sales drop by almost 9%.

I'm simply suggesting that the world seems to be content with the ratio of BEV to ICE sales for now. And it's not because of rates.




How do you define accelerating when the growth rate is decreasing?



I don't see the future growth. We're talking about a company which, on present numbers, should be valued at 20% of its current market cap. This is priced for perfection in terms of execution. And the execution is terrible. And the touted future growth levers have been cut down to one thing that should've came 8 years ago: FSD. 2025, 2026 and 2027 have no path to growth and, if things stay as they are (growing competition), numbers will actually get worse.
I agree with respect to execution, kinda. Model Y has been a hug success. Alas deliveries began 4 years ago, so what is new since then? Everything else seems stagnated. While some of us want the old model shoes, there is a reason why companies constantly put out tweaks and changes and variations on their models. Those things drive sales. Humans want the latest and greatest. While a thousand things have changed on the "S" and the "X" , a proportion of buyers really do not care about non-cosmetic change. These are not 911's. The platform/cake is there, maybe time to change the icing? Maybe there should of been a game plan for that. One could argue they did, but in my opinion for the S3X , it just was not enough to drive sales upward.

Model 2- who even knows.
Model X- should have released cheaper variation with regular doors as soon as sales stagnated. Priced above Y but below Falcon Wing.
Semi- Updates? Where are they? On unveil said production in 2019? Can anyone say execution on this had been great, when that was 5 years ago?
roadster-? years late. execution?
CT-late, and a gamble on form. Why not of had regular truck AND CT? Too early to tell but likley willl be a niche product. Yes I am aware of reservation numbers, but I feel cancellations will be staggering (above 80, maybe 90 per cent).
CEO alienating potential customers? does this really align with master plan 1?
Battery development ? 20 billion in the bank, huge lead, and now what?

Most of us here have driven a Tesla. Lots here invested because of it. That experience is not prevalent. This is not a saturated market. Still people will say 'this is my first time in a tesla when getting in my vehicle. ". We know it is a GREAT product. Sales should still be going up. Executing the game plan to 20 million by 2030 has been weak. Yes there has been some shining moments (model Y and 3) but you need to build on that.


So many times people have quoted on this board, Gretzky's "skate to where the puck is going" not to where it is.
Where is Tesla skating, only to FSD?
 
FWIW, as someone who has used FSD for as long as it has existed, and since V11 has been using it for the vast majority of his driving.... but as direct result of that experience does not believe Tesla RTs are coming this year (nor in any widespread sense for a number of years still)- I have to say I'm kind of disappointed in the # of times lately I see ANY post that isn't 10,000% uberbull positive met with "BUT HAVE YOU TRIED FSD?!"

I have. A lot. It's not in any way a compelling counter-point to the valid concerns in other regards some folks have raised here lately. (Nor does it mean EVERY concern raised here is valid, but the continual pretending NONE of em are is...not a great look).

Hopefully the earnings call tomorrow will provided at least some modicum of answers and guidance to enable us to more rationally judge which concerns really have any legs or not.
Same, as I started with AP1. What helped me is a) adopting "is it driving safe" approach to intervention. Yes, I am that car that sometimes takes 15 seconds to take an unprotected left, but I am no longer bothered b) chill mode, as I don't want my passengers to vomit. Even that became a little less chill with 12.3.x. C) up till last two releases, had it on minimal lane changes, no longer necessary d) adaptive speed limit works well for me d) most importantly, my wife's neural net shadow mode no longer is triggered every time I use FSD
 
Now that´s good PR!

How popular is Consumer Reports in the US?

Is this really a fair comparison though? A better chart would be what EVs are the cheapest to maintain long term as EVs have like 0 regular maintenance vs. any ICE car.

Tesla's are generally more expensive to insure from this article vs. other cars:
 
So many times people have quoted on this board, Gretzky's "skate to where the puck is going" not to where it is.
Where is Tesla skating, only to FSD?

Rather than FSD, think of it as AI, and all the possible applications this will bring toward solving problems for the world. (and, hopefully not causing any)

Tesla is skating toward Robotaxi, Optimus, and Energy products. Each of which will dwarf Tesla's Auto business.

This is where the puck Tesla is going.
 
I stepped out for a year, and am dumbfounded with the number of care bears now cozily living in this thread. In my book, ones who have not personally tried FSD, are not real investors and their argument is not based on first principles / first hand experience.
It's an interesting one. Traditionally we had obvious trolls with names inspired by avians or various weather conditions.

The last little while has seen the emergence of several prolific accounts that worry about many concerns but don't cross the line into wildly flagrant lies/criticism, but take a negative interpretation that could be seen as reasonable by a misery guts.

Hopefully there are no longer term pernicious effects.
 
Is this really a fair comparison though? A better chart would be what EVs are the cheapest to maintain long term as EVs have like 0 regular maintenance vs. any ICE car.

Maybe you are unaware, but, currently, there are more ICE vehicles on the road than there are BEVs.

So, "consumers" as a whole will actually be more interested in "reports" that will most directly apply to their next automobile purchase.

A chart showing a marked advantage to one type of car over another is what most would consider a fair comparison.

Not you, clearly. But, other people, whose priorities are based in the cost of ownership, rather than some personal agenda.
🤷‍♂️

Edit: Oh look, @sunworrier disagrees. What a surprise!
 
Reducing price on FSD is really a waste. It could and should be a Premium feature.
I agree, but don’t tell my wife. She just saved $4k upgrading to FSD on her new Model Y. She was enjoying her 3 months from my referral, (plus the one month free trial), and I was about to advise her to pull the trigger at $12k expecting the price to go up again. When the subscription was reduced to $99/month I decided to keep my mouth shut. This took some of the sting out of the early April reductions on inventory Y’s, (she bought in March), and the more recent $2k reduction in new Model Y’s.
 
Maybe you are unaware, but, currently, there are more ICE vehicles on the road than there are BEVs.

So, "consumers" as a whole will actually be more interested in "reports" that will most directly apply to their next automobile purchase.

A chart showing a marked advantage to one type of car over another is what most would consider a fair comparison.

Not you, clearly. But, other people, whose priorities are based in the cost of ownership, rather than some personal agenda.
🤷‍♂️

You know what they say about statistics right? I just don't think that chart is a fair comparison with other EVs and since Tesla makes no gas cars, it's almost a meaningless report. Again, I own an EV and am pro-EV, but this type of report is meaningless I believe for any real EV shopper.

This is like if I posted a graph of what manufacturer has the best gas mileage and Tesla/Rivian wins because they make no gas cars and use 0.
 
You know what they say about statistics right? I just don't think that chart is a fair comparison with other EVs and since Tesla makes no gas cars, it's almost a meaningless report. Again, I own an EV and am pro-EV, but this type of report is meaningless I believe for any real EV shopper.

This is like if I posted a graph of what manufacturer has the best gas mileage and Tesla/Rivian wins because they make no gas cars and use 0.

You do have a unique manner of approaching reality. I'll give you that. Reminds me of this scene in The Princess Bride...


Best of luck navigating the future you have chosen not to invest in.