@unk45 time to buy?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I get your point. Most of us signed up for Steve Jobs (aka Elon), not Tim Cook. Tim Cook is a great manager, but the only real thing he has done - product wise - is put out the I-phone 10, 11, 12.... Several years from now, we may get Tesla's version of Tim Cook, but (despite the current turmoil) the execution from Tesla team has been pretty darn good (with certain exceptions) and exciting to boot.
GhostSkater
Member
Come back to us
You seem to have misunderstood something: This chart was not put together by somebody on this board, or even by a pro-Tesla source. This chart is also not supposed to be a comparison of EV's for "any real EV shopper" as you say.
This chart was put together as part of a study and analysis that was completed and reported on by Consumer Reports, and the titles that Consumer Reports used make it 100% clear what this report is supposed to show -- it is obvious that they mean only to offer one aspect of general cost info for general car buyers.
"Four of the Five Least Expensive Car Brands to Maintain Are American
Tesla costs the least; German brands the most, in CR’s exclusive analysis"Based on their choice on how to publish, it might also be that Consumer Reports believes that for most car shoppers, EV's compete against all other cars, including ICE cars, and not only against each other. Thus, Consumer Reports made the decision to provide this "brand vs. brand" comparison.
Perhaps Consumer Reports has more granular data that would allow them break out EV vs. ICE in each brand, or truck vs. sedan, etc. Or, maybe they don't. Either way, that wasn't their purpose here. If and when Consumer Reports puts together a comparison of the costs of EV's specifically, I'm sure somebody will post it here.
In the meantime, it seems like your complaint should be with Consumer Reports? Telling us why you don't like their report is similar to that time I went to the Complaint Department and told them "I wish I was taller" -- we have nothing to with the problem you're describing, and we can't do anything about it.
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Anyone here having TSLA with Swissquote?
I want to vote with my shares!
I want to vote with my shares!
Spacep0d
Active Member
*Teslas (plural), not Tesla's (possessive).Is this really a fair comparison though? A better chart would be what EVs are the cheapest to maintain long term as EVs have like 0 regular maintenance vs. any ICE car.
Tesla's are generally more expensive to insure from this article vs. other cars:
How Much Does Tesla Car Insurance Cost? - NerdWallet
Tesla car insurance can be expensive. Here's what you can expect to pay based on your model and where you live.www.nerdwallet.com
My Tesla Model 3 Performance was under $100 for six months through Tesla Insurance. Any other mainstream insurer would have tried to rake me over the coals, especially because it's a Performance model. I'm a 55-year-old male with a clean driving record and I don't drive a whole lot (WFH), for comparison.
I understand that Tesla Insurance isn't everywhere yet, but Elon started Tesla Insurance because the mainstream companies are egregiously overpriced.
It’s almost like they saw the posts here about maintenance costs, revenue streams for the big carmakers, and existing fleet maintenance equalling profitability for the high luxury brands.
EVs are lower maintenance in general, so this is not a source of profit that EV makers can fall back on and hence why Elon thinks the combination of electrification + autonomy is so vital.
cliff harris
Member
In which case you are not vaguely paying attention.
This is not just another EV company. Do you have any idea what a unique selling point true FSD is? Do you realize that they own the fueling network as well as the car? That they are the only western EV company selling ANY real volume in China? That they are regualrly the #1 desired employer for top engineering graduates all over the world?
If you want to value them like you would value volvo, feel free. Don't be surprised that we don't agree though. Meanwhile GM stock is cheap. Sell your TSLA (its not the right stock for you), and go give mary a pat on the back. She led. And it matters.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Yes, it's a very good L2 system.
You'll need more than that to justify even the current market cap, let alone the ATH one.
They're certainly aiming to achieve more, but have not yet, and are many years behind their targets on doing so.
So someone being dubious of them getting there in the timeframes most folks value stocks is not an unreasonable stance on the topic.
This is a surprising misunderstanding of how most people fuel an EV.
Which is at home- not a DC fast charging station.
Certainly they own by far the best DCFC network in the US (their dominance OUTSIDE the US is not nearly as large)-- and that will be a profit center long term... but again not one that justifies a massively larger market cap than they've already had.
That'd be a very important point in considering the future value of Tesla versus, say, Ford.
But at HALF their current market cap Tesla would still have a much higher real P/E than Ford does so not sure how this disproves his valuation?
They do move real volume in China. So do some Chinese companies (and increasingly so overall).
No, they actually do not. Not even close to #1.
Tesla improves in Universum's 'Most Attractive Employers' list
Tesla has made its first appearance in Universum's "Most Attractive Employers" list, which asks students across the globe which companies they want to work for.
www.teslarati.com
#16 among engineering students worldwide in 2023, up from #26 in 2022.
Possibly you are thinking of the much narrower US-students-only data the same company provides?
Tesla wasn't #1 there either-- they were #2.
But then Boeing is #5 so I'm not sure how much of the stocks price should be built into scoring well there
BTW I saw you also doing the "DO YOU EVEN FSD DUDE?" thing earlier. Your sig says you're in the UK, where AFAIK FSD isn't available.... so that's a...weird tact to take?
Are you just basing your investment timelines and ideas on watching youtube videos from Omar or something?
cliff harris
Member
Christ, just sell the stock, or short it. We don't care. Either way you lose money. We are just so sick of the constant trolling here. This sort of analysis belongs on seekingalpha.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
You misrepresent facts and statistics, ignore the corrections thereof, respond to valid comments with a GTFO approach, and yell at people raising valid concerns that they don't understand until they use FSD, while you yourself are in a country you can't use FSD in--- I think you might be projecting the troll thing at this point to be honest.
To quote Chris Knight- I am only saying this because I care - there are a lot of decaffeinated brands on the market today that are just as tasty as the real thing.
(and since you're in the UK- this is just as true for tea!)
James has modest expectations for Q1 earnings:-
There are a number of macro and one-off factors impacting on Q1 results.
But from my point of view anything Tesla was doing wrong in Q1 2024, they were also doing wrong in Q4 2023.
Some issues have been exposed, and areas where Tesla needs to do better are now exposed with more clarity.
All the "one-off" factors impacting on Q1 should not be a factor in future quarters.
The real world is more complex than many of the solutions posted here imply.
Advertising is one example, it hasn't been a silver bullet, in part because everyone does it, and a vastly larger sum of money is focused on spreading the opposite message on EVs.
So it isn't just advertising that is required, but the right kind of advertising, and a small advertising budget has to punch punch above it weight. IMO the most likely path to doing that is to leverage the fact that advertising is a "creative industry", many people who are good at painting and writing are also understandably good at advertising. And a good idea can cut-through and punch above it weight. So the right team of people need to be given the right brief. My suggestion is that humour is entertaining and memorable, but all really know is, Tesla is still searching for the right formula.
The other consistent theme here is that people seem to think that Tesla should invest a whole bunch of capex and build some new factories to build some new models. What would that do to the financials and sales of existing models in a challenging macro environment? The short term way forward is to balance supply and demand for their existing production capabilities.
Yet another theme is the race for EV market share isn't a race and that many people will foolish enough to buy an ICE when EVs reach price parity. Every sustainable price reduction unlocks some additional market share, there is sometimes a lag, and addressing that lag brings us back to advertising. But keep working on cost reduction and product improvements in parallel with attempting to sort out advertising.
There are a number of macro and one-off factors impacting on Q1 results.
But from my point of view anything Tesla was doing wrong in Q1 2024, they were also doing wrong in Q4 2023.
Some issues have been exposed, and areas where Tesla needs to do better are now exposed with more clarity.
All the "one-off" factors impacting on Q1 should not be a factor in future quarters.
The real world is more complex than many of the solutions posted here imply.
Advertising is one example, it hasn't been a silver bullet, in part because everyone does it, and a vastly larger sum of money is focused on spreading the opposite message on EVs.
So it isn't just advertising that is required, but the right kind of advertising, and a small advertising budget has to punch punch above it weight. IMO the most likely path to doing that is to leverage the fact that advertising is a "creative industry", many people who are good at painting and writing are also understandably good at advertising. And a good idea can cut-through and punch above it weight. So the right team of people need to be given the right brief. My suggestion is that humour is entertaining and memorable, but all really know is, Tesla is still searching for the right formula.
The other consistent theme here is that people seem to think that Tesla should invest a whole bunch of capex and build some new factories to build some new models. What would that do to the financials and sales of existing models in a challenging macro environment? The short term way forward is to balance supply and demand for their existing production capabilities.
Yet another theme is the race for EV market share isn't a race and that many people will foolish enough to buy an ICE when EVs reach price parity. Every sustainable price reduction unlocks some additional market share, there is sometimes a lag, and addressing that lag brings us back to advertising. But keep working on cost reduction and product improvements in parallel with attempting to sort out advertising.
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FielderJones
Member
When doing plurals, the best apostrophe is no apostrophe.
Why not offer counterpoints?
Some of the things you said were factually incorrect. Wouldn't you do the same if someone did the opposite?
I get some here are all-in, but there's a grey area between the super optimistic and the pessimistic. The reality falls in the middle.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Paragraphs 1 and 2 kinda contradict each other though.
A 25k car would help the race, and mission, vastly more than slight cuts on 35-45k cars.
We went over the obsbourning thing a couple weeks ago. Consider the impact based on the types of buyers that exist that would consider an EV at all.
For people who need a car NOW, there's no osbourning of anybody. They'll either buy a 3/Y now if they can afford it--- or they will buy a cheaper vehicle if they can't. The fact a cheaper vehicle is coming "someday" does not help them regardless of if someday is 2025 or 2026 or 2027.
For people who CAN wait a year or more, there COULD be osbourning. But there's at least two groups here. Let's consider them!
Group 1: They need at least a 3/Y anyway- because they need 5 seats plus some cargo space. These folks are buying a 3/Y anyway, so no worries EXCEPT that continued price cuts are likely to condition them to wait as long as possible. It'll only get cheaper! Whereas if a new model was known to be coming they might not be slashing the 3/Y so much as it approached and maybe they shouldn't wait. Waiting is bad for Tesla in this group. (TBC- I think the impact either way here is minor, but what minor there is points in favor of making it clear the smaller/cheaper car is on the way by next year)
Group 2: They would be ok with a smaller cheaper car.... and currently Tesla doesn't sell one. So if Tesla has no such vehicle announced they can either--- try and stretch for a 3/Y (good for Tesla) OR.... buy a cheaper non-Tesla. We know for a fact more people do that second one today simply by adding up sales of Tesla 3/Y versus the "cheaper non-Tesla" options. Yes the Y outsells any INDIVIDAL one, but not put together. In other words, nothing announced- MORE people will keep buying cheap other cars than will "stretch to manage a 3/Y". ON THE OTHER HAND... if Tesla DID announce a cheaper next-gen car.... a LOT of those "non tesla cheap car" buyers might WAIT to buy the cheap Tesla instead of a cheap non-Tesla. And again that group of people, even just a fraction of that group, is much larger than ALL 3/Y buyers. By a lot.
So I think the idea of "Tesla shouldn't say anything about a cheap consumer car at all" Osborne concerns go exactly the wrong direction unless such a car is a long way off.
Which is bad for its own, maybe we do NOT get robotaxis this year or next, reasons.
As you know, not your fault, but I get how that can happen.
Not an FSD thing, I was in full control and braked up on the highway when traffic stopped short at an exit. Wasn't going fast....it was the kind of thing where you're rolling along at maybe 15 mph, then someone a few cars ahead cuts someone off or something. Well, emergency braking kicked in and stopped the car harder than I would have wanted to. I would have braked and released quick but no, here I was wincing as a car coming up fast locked up their brakes. Lots of tire smoke and drama, but no rear ending.... but I felt like running back there and handing the driver a roll of toilet paper. Happened again when I decided to stop for a red light that everyone else was going thru because it just came off yellow. Yeah, very hard for a human to react as fast or react to non-human logic. I have emergency braking either off or on lowest setting nowadays.
Sad thing is, your car now has an accident on record. Take plenty of before and after pics for future resale. Glad you're safe though.... these material things...they come and go. I remember how bad ass I was walking the halls in high school with a just released Sony Walkman. Had it turned low and eyes darting so I could hear if the girls were checking me out. They didn't care. LOL Yeah, I'm old.
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The BMW link is an X post. You’re right about the article though. YoY is a better metric. I included the second article for Daimler. But yes it does counter my first link.
Yes at the right time it would..
Building factories to make new models isn't cheap or instant...
It is good to "get the house in order" before embarking on a major expansion, that means all of the existing production capacity fully built out, fully ramped, and profitable.
I now think all new factories may build Robotaxis as their first vehicle, that could be the current plan, subject to FSD working well enough.
Cybertruck was clearly seen as the right vehicle to launch high volume 4680 production. Yes, a cheaper model might have been possible, but how would the 4680 production ramp have impacted on margins for that new vehicle? Cybertruck targets a high margin section of the US market, and a vehicle segment that produces a lot of emissions.
By the time Tesla starts producing Robotaxis, the 4680 ramp should be more advanced.
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