Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

"Our purpose-built robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary “unboxed” manufacturing strategy."

Can't wait for the, umm, unboxing video.

 

[Krugerrand]

Always like the Cat's take.

Sometimes I wonder if it is just me (FSD since 2019). I cannot think of any other product, this advanced, this potentially life changing, this valuable, COMPLETELY PUBLIC no less, and yet as far as I can tell undervalued.

Its like having an iphone a year or so before they widely release it. Or something, I am not even sure that is a good example.

If you look, not at what FSD requires to be made perfect, but where it is at now, it is astonishing.

I think part of the problem is people thinking it needs to be perfect. That it needs to never make a mistake. That’s ridiculous. It literally drives like people now, mistakes and all. The end goal simply only needs to be: better than people in general by ‘fill in a number’.

I’m just hoping my bot folds the laundry better than my spouse. That’ll be a dealbreaker for me.

 

[Electroman]

Bummer that Martin is leaving. I liked his contributions on X

I am sorry, I should know by now, but I don't.

Who is Martin V? and what is the impact to Tesla on his departure?

 

[Zero CO2]

I am sorry, I should know by now, but I don't.

Who is Martin V? and what is the impact to Tesla on his departure?

soon to be former head of investor relations ..

 

[Musskiah]

Tesla needs more cars on the road for as much real world video as possible to feed FSD. Accelerate the number of vehicles on the road with existing lines, remaining agile. More Teslas for the Tesla Network, which is being teased in the report. Test out some of the Model 2 manufacturing methods on a reliable line; holding constant many variables, avoiding the complexity of an entirely new platform; Unboxed manufacturing methods will be worked out on Robotaxi.

It also occurs to me that this may be an effort to further optimize 3/Y platform for additional convertible Robotaxis. This would be an effort toward the proverbial "balls to the wall."

 

[hobbes]

NOTE: Over the last many pages, I've seen zero posts from folks I ignore, FYI. THAT is a data point!

Seems like at least the ignore function is working

 

[Skipdd]

OT: This forum needs a self healing algo, besides the mods, to get rid of disease which often has names sounding like pron stars.
The disease has been killing this incredibly valuable forum lately.

We've lost too many great and valuable posters over the years to let the disease continue. 3/4 of last day's post were just response to nonsense disease posts. Absurd.

I’m in the camp that weighs, measures, and then thinks Eeyore when it’s negative, chuckles and moves on. Much less stressful.

 

[Unpilot]

I think D$S is a 12-year-old living in his mom's basement.
Getting jolly's by acting the fool.

 

[Causalien]

oh man. I bought a few faggy delight (wsb style ) before earnings call and just realizing it's going to pay off. LOL 15% up after hours

 

[SOULPEDL]

The current TSLA RSI on the 2-week is 85.6 meaning overbought. (In case we didn't notice).
Hope this continues for some serious FOMO.

 

[Congo Line]

Outlook | Product:

"We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025.

"These new vehicles, including more affordable models, will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.

"This update may result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected but enables us to prudently grow our vehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner during uncertain times.

"This would help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles, enabling more than 50% growth over 2023 production before investing in new manufacturing lines.

"Our purpose-built robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary “unboxed” manufacturing strategy."

So there you have it in a nutshell folks: Model 2 is not canceled, in fact it's going to be a shortened Model Y variant, and it sounds like there will be more than one variant. Finally, robotaxi will come after these new variants; growth has been reprioritized.

Brilliant!

A great night to be a TSLA shareholder. It's been a long time since an earnings call went this well imo.

My only small worry is that these new lower-cost models might have the same exterior appearance as Model 3 and Y. Otherwise how will they build them on the same assembly line? Problem would be that they Osborne the existing lineup. I hope my fears are unfounded.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It is nice that Jim Scuitto has had a Tesla in the background all afternoon... maybe a sign?

Jim is currently a national security correspondent for CNN, and he's a former government officer. It's almost certain now that the US DOD is exploring the possibility of using FSD for autonomous logistics vehicles, especially fuel and ammo trucks in war zones. "Tesla Government Systems": I like the sound of that. First product? Why, autonomous Cybertruck, of course!

 

[amolina]

I never thought about this. But Tesla is clearly building a ride hailing app that is competitor to Uber. It announced it at earnings call.
Tech stack of a ride hailing app is easy/Okay level of difficulty to create. But operations is tricky to get right. Takes some effort to get the operations right.

Would be interesting to see TSLA quickly build this service with test pilot drivers. Was a part of an early project within FREE NOW (Uber of Europe) and DAIMLER for autonomous. Working for a ride hailing is an interesting experience.

Here is some data I compiled.

Public Ride-Hailing Companies (as of April 2024):

1. Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: UBER) - Market Cap: $147 billion
2. Lyft, Inc. (NASDAQ: LYFT) - Market Cap: $6 billion
3. Grab Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: GRAB) - Market Cap: $13B billion
4. Didi Global Inc. (NYSE: DIDI) - Market Cap: $25.2 billion

Total Market Cap of Public Ride-Hailing Companies: $192 billionPrivate Ride-Hailing Companies (last known valuations as of August 2023):

1. Ola Cabs (India) - Last Known Valuation: $7.3 billion
2. Gojek (Indonesia) - Last Known Valuation: $10 billion
3. Bolt (Estonia) - Last Known Valuation: $4.75 billion
4. inDriver (USA) - Last Known Valuation: $1.23 billion
5. Cabify (Spain) - Last Known Valuation: $1.4 billion
   6. FREE NOW (Europe) - Last Known Valuation ±$1 billion

Total Ride Hailing Market Cap ±220 B.

The important question is, What percentage of Ride Hailing valuation could Tesla capture soon?

 

[Knightshade]

A great night to be a TSLA shareholder. It's been a long time since an earnings call went this well imo.

My only small worry is that these new lower-cost models might have the same exterior appearance as Model 3 and Y. Otherwise how will they build them on the same assembly line? Problem would be that they Osborne the existing lineup. I hope my fears are unfounded.

This concern always confuses me.

BMWs 2 series didn't osborne its 3 series, nor the 3 the 5 series.... The corolla doesn't osborne the camry... Heck the Avalon doesn't osborn the ES.

People LIKE having cars in slightly different size and price classes- the fact they look similar to each other otherwise doesn't seem to prevent both from finding customers.

 

[MC3OZ]

A great night to be a TSLA shareholder. It's been a long time since an earnings call went this well imo.

My only small worry is that these new lower-cost models might have the same exterior appearance as Model 3 and Y. Otherwise how will they build them on the same assembly line? Problem would be that they Osborne the existing lineup. I hope my fears are unfounded.

They had good answers to most questions.

Part of the answer here is apply Gen3 technology to the existing Model 3/Y models, lowering the cost to build those cars.

Another part is additional battery and motor options for the existing Model 3/Y, perhaps even different trims or seats.

I think the new Model 3 performance indicates what is possible, sometimes changes will improve the car rather than lower costs, sometimes both.

Any actual new cheaper models would have a different shape. Most likely is that they could be shorter 2-door models with compromised rear seating, lower range and slower acceleration.

Cheaper will always mean you get less for your money.

My best guess is they are talking about actual cheaper smaller models, but they will be different enough to be differentiated from Model 3/Y, and the actual cost savings will allow sales for a lower price with reasonable margin.

The actually solves my major short term concern very elegantly. My concern was that in the current macro environment, with Austin and Berlin ramping Tesla might have too much Model Y production capacity. Opening up new markets for Model Y is one obvious step, But inventory has probably built or will soon build to the point where some factory shutdowns to tinker with production of a new model on the same line in one factory might not be a big deal.

 

[Singuy]

This concern always confuses me.

BMWs 2 series didn't osborne its 3 series, nor the 3 the 5 series.... The corolla doesn't osborne the camry... Heck the Avalon doesn't osborn the ES.

People LIKE having cars in slightly different size and price classes- the fact they look similar to each other otherwise doesn't seem to prevent both from finding customers.

They all absolutely osbourne each other. How can we tell? Because Tesla outsold like all of BMW's entire line up of 10+ models combined with just 2 car models.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I am sorry, I should know by now, but I don't.

Who is Martin V? and what is the impact to Tesla on his departure?

besides being head of investor relations, he would regularly post positive Tesla info on X and also many posts to counteract/clarify/debunk some of the FUD

 

[MartinAustin]

Jim is currently a national security correspondent for CNN, and he's a former government officer. It's almost certain now that the US DOD is exploring the possibility of using FSD for autonomous logistics vehicles, especially fuel and ammo trucks in war zones. "Tesla Government Systems": I like the sound of that. First product? Why, autonomous Cybertruck, of course!

"Cybertruck Dynamic Systems, Inc." Later renamed to...

 

[Knightshade]

They all absolutely osbourne each other. How can we tell? Because Tesla outsold like all of BMW's entire line up of 10+ models combined with just 2 car models.

That's... not how any of that works dude.

Didn't you go to business school?

What do you think osborning even is?

Because it has nothing to do with what you just wrote.


Osborning would mean announcing the BMW 2 made 3 series sales crash because everyone waited for the cheaper car. They did not. In fact by offering more cars at more sizes and price points, even though they look quite similar overall, total sales went UP.

Hence why this concern if Tesla does it doesn't make much sense.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I do not think this means model 2 is dead. In fact, the opposite. Model 2 (or whatever you want to call it) will be manufactured in a more compromised way than originally planned but it will be available sooner.

This! No one knows what Model 2 meant, it was a placeholder concept while Tesla worked out the balance between what was desirable and what was possible.

Now we know. It will be a hybrid manufacturing design, incorporating some new tech likely which we've seen already on Cyber truck, and some existing structures from the Model Y.

Best of all, it removes uncertainty for Tesla's vehicle growth trajectory. They stated in plain English that they have capacity for up to 3 million vehicles, and intend to increase production by 50% over the 1.8 million vehicles which were delivered in 2023.

It's a low risk high reward strategy that keeps the engines of production running, while the company works towards a robotaxi future. Even the software back end was teased today. I expect that GROK will be a big part of this. You will need to be able to speak to a robotaxi, but first Tesla owners will be able to speak to their existing cars, and the cars will understand you, speak back, and act on your wishes.

"O brave new world, that has such people in 't!”