Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

He’s not wrong that they should. Will they all understand. Absolutely not. And that’s okay. They can carry on being oblivious.

We have people here who don’t understand what’s happening with FSD. All they can do is point out what doesn’t work for them. My car recently drove me hundreds of miles; two lanes, mountain passes, super highway, city, roundabouts including, with authority and way more confidence than I could have mustered, a complex roundabout imbedded in another roundabout - like WTH!? - and then later thought it should turn left on what used to be a road through a moving train , but then realized ‘no longer a road’, corrected itself and went down the road further and turned at the lights like it should. Many people would be ‘it tried to kill me!!!’ and ‘it’s not ready for prime time’. Me? I was ‘****! That’s amazing! It figured out its mistake, corrected itself, and executed. It didn’t give up. It worked the problem, found the solution.

Picking up mountain location tidbits.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Re: Meat Kevin 6 hrs ago be like:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782878537198035036

DEAR @elonmusk, please just cancel the earnings call. We're good. Thanks. $TSLA.

... Shortie Blartfast

 

[keydiver]

It sounds like they are downplaying the importance of 4680, so I don't think we'll ever see them in the existing lineup other than Cybertruck

And semi. But, as we learned from the call, the semi assembly line is still quite a ways off, so no need to ramp up 4680 any faster. As Elon explained, a big reason for 4680 was cost. Other manufacturers were placing HUGE battery orders, making cells from everyone so expensive. But, now that the legacy manufacturers have backed off EV production there is a glut of batteries to be bought on the cheap, so the cost reductions from the 4680 format aren't as important right now.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Are we any closer to finding out if our existing vehicles are still in plan for use as a CC (CyberCab) "like an Airbnb" as he put it? Or was that reserved for the new ones coming soon?

He described different use-cases. But our Model Y as a true CC? We'd need to at least partition off the controls (could be as simple as a locked wheel & pedal enclosure, or just use Plexiglas partitions). So a maybe here?

Their Hardware 3-4-5 talk left a bit of a sinking feeling that ours may only allow unsupervised but not CC. We've been getting upgrades on our Model 3 for like 6 years now, and suddenly I'm feeling left out with the AMD upgrade etc... Crazy that I know this feeling never ends with their products. Totally spoiled here!

So for FSD, any clarity or limitations hinted today for our units?

 

[Todd Burch]

I mentioned this in the FSD thread a few days ago after James Douma brought it up, but I cannot stress the importance of this enough: Elon and Ashok have seen, been driven by, and experienced the future FSD 12.4 and FSD 12.5, which we won’t see as plebs for months.

If you’re wondering why Elon sees Tesla entering the end game for autonomy, and Ashok has said “this is the beginning of the end”, it’s because of this.

Ashok and Elon both know the rate of change of improvements from 12.3 to 12.4 to 12.5. They are privy to inside information but it’s so easy to read what’s behind the curtain it’s painfully obvious.

Elon’s always underestimated the difficulty of FSD. But when he started experiencing versions of v12, there was a palpable difference in his tone.

And in the last few months, pushing out 12.3 and experiencing 12.4 and maybe 12.5, he’s gone balls to the wall.

Why?

Because he knows. Ashok knows.

I’ve waited a decade as a Tesla investor for what will happen in the next two years: autonomy, huge energy growth, and Optimus.

Troy thinks Optimus is 5-10 years off. He might be good with spreadsheets but AI ain’t his wheelhouse.

I’d be really nervous not owning TSLA over the next few years. We’re going to see share price growth that makes the early part of this decade look small in comparison.

 

[ke6jph]

Any challengers? This is current IRA. Wasn't there a 99% out there recently?

View attachment 1041153

I'm still expecting a down draft tomorrow, but quick then gone (total guess, expecting the worst).
It's like the axe murderer who you thought was dead in that movie... and he's back for the 4th time.


Florida or Russia?
Ah-ha! I'm guessing you're in Ontario then. (Or you're a darn good bilingual.) Did ya happen to visit those Gardens long ago?
I'm in Arizona USA, it was basically after the close. Poof! But there's one I see sticking around, trying to shake a few more perhaps.

How about this…..
Regular IRA is the same……

 

[Drumheller]

Are we any closer to finding out if our existing vehicles are still in plan for use as a CC (CyberCab) "like an Airbnb" as he put it? Or was that reserved for the new ones coming soon?

He described different use-cases. But our Model Y as a true CC? We'd need to at least partition off the controls (could be as simple as a locked wheel & pedal enclosure, or just use Plexiglas partitions). So a maybe here?

Their Hardware 3-4-5 talk left a bit of a sinking feeling that ours may only allow unsupervised but not CC. We've been getting upgrades on our Model 3 for like 6 years now, and suddenly I'm feeling left out with the AMD upgrade etc... Crazy that I know this feeling never ends with their products. Totally spoiled here!

So for FSD, any clarity or limitations hinted today for our units?

I don't see a reason not to allow existing vehicles to become cabs. As long as they can work, then why not.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Reuters is S-M-R-T...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782986996605968591

 

[SOULPEDL]

I don't see a reason not to allow existing vehicles to become cabs. As long as they can work, then why not.

@Discoducky, the idea of using existing vehicles for driverless cabs had to have come up long ago. Was there a plan back in the early days for this transition? Any hardware kits considered or maybe liability issues?

Clearly things are different now, but I know many talked about this stuff when the RT concept was practically first revealed.

 

[Todd Burch]

Reuters is S-M-R-T...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782986996605968591

Yet another reason why traditional media is garbage in, garbage out.

They’re paid by the word, not by the fact.

 

[MartinAustin]

Here's a similar thought: when you plug in to Supercharge, you automatically start computing for the duration. Lowers your cost of the charge by X amount. The SC locations will be the network base stations (remote ones might indeed use Starlink). Can be disabled as an option in the car settings.

Elon said "hardware 6 or 7" with reference to higher computing power built into the car. It's probable that any apps that users may be using during charging will consume an ever-smaller fraction of the CPU (think... watching TV/movie... ordering stuff on Amazon etc.)

 

[Drumheller]

Reuters is S-M-R-T...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782986996605968591

For the hundredth time, it's just an "honest mistake." They wouldn't do it intentionally to manipulate. Everyone should definitely keep reading them, keep trusting them, and keep shocked Pikachu ready for the next hundred times.

 

[sunwarriors]

Fun Fact: It was about 1 PM and just before this post that all of my ignore folks disappeared. It was that fast, and definitely nothing after this post above! I never did post this list, wasn't my style. But I compared with a few here and mine was on the shorter side apparently. Like I said earlier, it was the worst I'd ever seen.

Reminds me of Florida living in some mobile home as a kid in HS with my crazy brother. One day we came in at night, turn on the kitchen lights, and watch about 500 cockroaches disappear in 2 sec flat. They couldn't have cleared out any faster than had we been in space and I opened the doors and windows!

We moved out next day... and into a tent next door. It wasn't too bad with mattresses, showers and storage at the neighbors for $10/wk each. Disco was big then, and we were Stayin' Alive!

I hope I'm on your ignore list, but I tend to pay little attention to after hour stock moves, but in all seriousness, 1 up day after like 10 and a YTD drop from around $250 to $140 and back up to $163 (after hours, could be very different tomorrow) and you're gloating? I thought folks here were long term investors? There is still a lot of execution to do. We'll all see how this plays out in months/and definitely a few more years.

Musk stating cheaper options coming was a positive according to most reports vs. the nothing else but AI/Robotaxi thoughts and no cheaper option. It's still not clear what that is yet. I do think having cheaper models from any manufacturers with less range, features, etc would be great personally. Would be good for kids, grandparents, basic transportation.

If it's a scaled down version of the 3/Y, I think it would eat into 3/Y sales and lower prices remains questionable profit margins if they use mostly a 3/Y platform, but I'm all for cheaper EVs.

Reuter's lies, but here's their take (on whether it's a totally new manufacturing process for cost reductions. This might not be a BAD idea since EV growth has slowed and who wants to compete at lower price points now:

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/teslas-quarterly-revenue-falls-first-time-since-2020-2024-04-23/

 

[Blue horseshoe]

@Discoducky, the idea of using existing vehicles for driverless cabs had to have come up long ago. Was there a plan back in the early days for this transition? Any hardware kits considered or maybe liability issues?

Clearly things are different now, but I know many talked about this stuff when the RT concept was practically first revealed.

I think you misheard something. They stated once fsd is ready they will activate the robotaxi network and people can add or remove their vehicles to the network like a Mashup between Uber and airbnb. They never said it has to be the cyber cab vehicle design only. Tesla will own some of the vehicles but the majority of vehicles will be owner operated on the network. This distributes the capital costs of the fleet as well as shares the profits with Tesla owners

 

[dhanson865]

Any challengers? This is current IRA. Wasn't there a 99% out there recently?

View attachment 1041153

I'm still expecting a down draft tomorrow, but quick then gone (total guess, expecting the worst).
It's like the axe murderer who you thought was dead in that movie... and he's back for the 4th time.


Florida or Russia?
Ah-ha! I'm guessing you're in Ontario then. (Or you're a darn good bilingual.) Did ya happen to visit those Gardens long ago?
I'm in Arizona USA, it was basically after the close. Poof! But there's one I see sticking around, trying to shake a few more perhaps.

hmm, my biggest account is

Current 401k is similar

Roth as well

not counting my bitcoin, but tossing in my AMD stock in the fully taxable account I guess I'm at a similar ratio as you, but it's a present cash value comparison and a moderate uptick for TSLA would move it up to 99% of my portfolio easily.

 

[Robertj]

For the Tesla app it will be available to all Tesla owners to put their car in the system or out frequently

	should clarify is that Tesla will be operating the fleet
16:29	um so you can think of like how Tesla um think of Tesla like I know some
16:35	combination of Airbnb and Uber meaning that um you know there'll be some number of cars that Tesla owns itself and
16:42	operates in the fleet there'll be some number of cars and then there'll be a bunch of cars where they're owned by the
16:49	um end user but that end user can add or subtract their car to the fleet whenever
16:56	they want and they can decide if they want to only let the car be used by friends and family or only by five star
17:03	users or by anyone um and any at any time they could have the car come back
17:09	to them and be exclusively theirs like an Airbnb you know you could rent out
17:15	your guest room or not anytime you want um
17:21	so uh as our Fleet grows we have 7 million cars going to 9 million cars

 

[MC3OZ]

I think you misheard something. They stated once fsd is ready they will activate the robotaxi network and people can add or remove their vehicles to the network like a Mashup between Uber and airbnb. They never said it has to be the cyber cab vehicle design only. Tesla will own some of the vehicles but the majority of vehicles will be owner operated on the network. This distributes the capital costs of the fleet as well as shares the profits with Tesla owners

I think the issue is people using the steering wheel or brakes as there are physical linkage.

But the airbnb model with strangers staying in your property is a bigger exposure.

You can limit Robotaxi use to family and friends, or 5-star customers.

You could attach some sort of steering wheel / pedal lock which Tesla might sell.

They have the customers credit card details, and it is covered by insurance.

The percentage of customers who would be tempted to use the wheel and pedals when they were told not to is very small.

I would guess all customers start out as 1-star, and it takes a while to earn a 5-star rating. But someone who owns a Tesla might start out as 3-star. Someone with a Robotaxi in the fleet might start out as 4-star.

 

[CitizenKane]

Good luck!

Well, seems I finally made a successful short trade But more importantly, really happy with how Tesla addressed market concerns from the past few weeks. Awful quarter but still good future prospects.

 

[MP3Mike]

I think the issue is people using the steering wheel or brakes as there are physical linkage.

<snip>


You could attach some sort of steering wheel / pedal lock which Tesla might sell.

Waymo doesn't seem to think it is an issue. I don't even think they put up a barrier on their vehicles. (They probably keep the driver's door locked, and don't allow that seat to be used, which Tesla could easily do as well.)

 

[jamaatta]

So, FSD licencing to other manufacturers, when? It's Ford, isn't it? Some pressures in other companies? I guess Tesla can't develop FSD hardware and software at once with many partners.