Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Usain]

A thought regarding training pickups/drop-offs. I suspect they don't need to do anything special here. There are already a bunch of people using a model 3 or Y as a taxi, and even ignoring that there are a ton of people using them to drop kids off at school and pick them up. Tesla already has a massive amount of data on how drivers behave when picking up/dropping people off.

A lot of Uber drivers use Teslas. So Tesla may already have enough data to do the robotaxi-specific training. But I don't think that training is reflected in the current FSD build.

The car needs to be able to pick out who the passenger is on the side of the road and figure out the safest place to pull over. It needs to stop and wait for the passenger or passengers to get in. Then when the passengers are settled, it needs to go to the destination.

Some of this can be inferred from signals in the phone. Locate passenger using a combination of GPS and bluetooth maybe? It's also possible to figure out who the prospective passenger is from body language. Then maybe don't start driving to the destination until passenger gives a ready signal on the app?

If it can't find the passenger, what should it do? Maybe the passenger is waiting inside. Where should it pull over and how long should it wait.

This is why I'm wondering about specific robotaxi training and if Tesla has already started on this. There are some relatively complex tasks that the car needs to learn.

 

[alexxs88]

What made you close your short yesterday, surely your model wouldn't have changed till after numbers were out?

For the first half of the position, thought nobody lost money by taking profits Someone here said that the stock already took quite a beating, you'd have needed to have an off-the-rails Elon to mess it up. Numbers were always going to be bad, so it was all about the future. The other half was after I saw the deck. As I said last night, they executed a perfect vision / description of their immediate future with all the right plans in place to grow both sides of the business (auto and autonomy). So, on its own, the earnings couldn't have gone any better and I expect the stock to go up for the next few days, until more data comes to light.

Now we'll see how they execute on those plans. On the auto growth side of the business they were vague enough with the new models that it will be interesting to see announcements by the end of this year.

 

[nativewolf]

In my opinion Buying and holding a stock = investing.

Shorting (it's in the name by the way) and playing option's (which are short term) = gambling

We as humans have created way too many Byzantine methods to "trade" and it largely pads the wallet of the creators.

The reason there is market is for trading. Period. Just like any other market: corn, used cars, oil. There are always two people on any transaction. The advent of the synthetic shorts is an issue and so are synthetic longs. The banks are making excuses to perform dirty little profit seeking exercises, that is a different issue.

The fundamental issue of using a market to acquire shares means you benefited from someone selling; perhaps hypocritical to use a market and then complain that not everyone is a long term investor? Just something to think about, neither is righteous. Both are simply using the market.

 

[alexxs88]

Shorting (it's in the name by the way) and playing option's (which are short term) = gambling

So hedge funds that short an asset are gambling, while a guy that bought Nvidia stock at ATH because his friends told him to is investing? I mean, everyone can have their own definition, just find it funny.

 

[Ellec]

So hedge funds that short an asset are gambling, while a guy that bought Nvidia stock at ATH because his friends told him to is investing? I mean, everyone can have their own definition, just find it funny.

Everything is a gamble when you think about it. Even buying and holding bonds.

 

[Knightshade]

Hey Knightshade. You are the options guy with bloomberg terminal? IF that's the case, there is money to be made in options of TSLA again. When knightshade is back, options game is back

No idea what you're talking about (I mean, I know what options are, and what a bloomberg terminal is- but I've never had such a terminal, and never "left" in any way from which I'd now be "back"- I've been making $ selling CCs and selling puts for years on a moderately constant basis-- there's a whole other big thread about this)

 

[Christine69420]

Transcript from the Earnings Call:

Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

 

[Mengy]

It is fascinating how after this conference call it seems like a cloud has been lifted.

I have to admit I feel better about Tesla's short term direction after the call (long term I wasn't too concerned). I just wanted clarification on the Model 2 situation and now we have it, and while the plan has changed as its now more of a Model 2.5, not fully unboxed but using existing lines, its a good logical plan and its even coming sooner than expected. Superlative news.

And the call itself was one of the best I've ever heard by Tesla. Clear audio, no big blunders, good questions answered competently, it just was very confident and positive.

Yeah, yesterday was a good day.

 

[FastEddieB]

Transcript from the Earnings Call:

Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

Thank you. I have some reading to do - the audio was much better but I still do better with the printed word.

 

[Knightshade]

I have to admit I feel better about Tesla's short term direction after the call (long term I wasn't too concerned). I just wanted clarification on the Model 2 situation and now we have it, and while the plan has changed as its now more of a Model 2.5, not fully unboxed but using existing lines, its a good logical plan and its even coming sooner than expected. Superlative news.

And the call itself was one of the best I've ever heard by Tesla. Clear audio, no big blunders, good questions answered competently, it just was very confident and positive.

Yeah, yesterday was a good day.

Agreed on all counts.

That said... what about beyond short term?

This year is likely gonna be roughly flat (I can see arguments for SLIGHT unit growth, and arguments for SLIGHT unit shrinkage, but roughly flat overall).

Next year- if they can get the cheaper model(s) on existing lines started by EOY 24- we could be back to significant 50% YoY growth in 2025.

But... then what?

At that point they're up in the 2.7-3M range end of 2025.... with no more existing capacity

So I'm kinda hoping 8/8 has something to say beyond this call regarding new factories-- because without that we're just in for another plateau in '26, and to avoid that they'd need to start construction on something in the next 3-6 months.

 

[sunwarriors]

Dark and St..rainy days coming!!

View attachment 1041234

Isn't it a bit late to be shorting when the stock was already down 40% and at year+ long lows? I think that alex guy here shorted at $240. I don't think those folks are sweating even if they had to get out now. It's also possible the after hours rise was short covering/squeeze from a not as bad call, but you'd think folks shorting at Monday's low (after the 40% drop) are a bit late to the game.

And unlike the negative folks prior to the call who now are positive folks, I still have neither a long nor short position in the stock (too poor for that). I find the company/stock discussion interesting enough to waste time/learn from it.

 

[AudubonB]

Ten minutes before the bell, and volume is at 6.99MM.
The last number I recall from yesterday’s aftermarket was a whopping 62MM shares, but did anyone catch the final number? It all adds up to a reasonably significant repositioning; of course short-covering is going to have been the dominant factor.

 

[Unpilot]

The reason there is market is for trading. Period. Just like any other market: corn, used cars, oil. There are always two people on any transaction. The advent of the synthetic shorts is an issue and so are synthetic longs. The banks are making excuses to perform dirty little profit seeking exercises, that is a different issue.

The fundamental issue of using a market to acquire shares means you benefited from someone selling; perhaps hypocritical to use a market and then complain that not everyone is a long term investor? Just something to think about, neither is righteous. Both are simply using the market.

Of course, the market is for trading. I have sold shares as I need to buy things...so I need a trading partner...to buy what I am selling.

My point is day-trading and options trading in not investing in the COMPANY...it is gambling that you know better.

Then we have the industry's that have grown up to support this endless churn....CNBC comes to mind.

So maybe we are just talking semantics.
In my mind, I buy stock in a company I believe in... I am "Invested" in that company.

I don't "trade" when I sell....I reluctantly sell part of the company I invested in ......to pay bills.

Hope this helps.

 

[Usain]

Transcript from the Earnings Call:

Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

From the transcript:

Martin Viecha
OK. A couple of more questions. So, our favorite, can we make FSD transfer permanent until FSD is fully delivered with Level 5 autonomy?

Lars Moravy -- Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Yes.

I could have sworn the answer was "No."? Which is correct?

 

[MP3Mike]

Waymo separates the front seats from the back with Plexiglas as far as I recall, so those exclude both front seats.

I think Waymo only did that in the Pacificas during the COVID times. In watching JJ Ricks recent videos in the next-gen Waymo, I-Pace, there is no Plexiglas, and I seem to recall that they allow use of the front passenger seat now.

 

[mongo]

From the transcript:

I could have sworn the answer was "No."? Which is correct?

You're correct, Elon said no. 33:18

 

[scaesare]

Not "have reached".

As mentioned, the supplier reduction based on engineering simplification.

So, again, since you have stated that we should say RIP to margin but they clearly they are still reducing COGS... it sounds like you really don't know at all, right?

Furthering the point, from the 2024 Q1 update:

Excluding Cybertruck and unscheduled downtime, our COGS per unit declined sequentially, driven primarily by lower raw material costs.

We also remain committed to company-wide cost reduction, including reducing COGS per vehicle.

@DarkandStormy I noticed you often don't like to reply when it's pointed out that one of your points may not be valid. Doesn't feel like you are interested in honest discourse....

 

[uscbucsfan]

From the transcript:

I could have sworn the answer was "No."? Which is correct?

It was Elon and said "No" immediately.

 

[Mengy]

Agreed on all counts.

That said... what about beyond short term?

This year is likely gonna be roughly flat (I can see arguments for SLIGHT unit growth, and arguments for SLIGHT unit shrinkage, but roughly flat overall).

Next year- if they can get the cheaper model(s) on existing lines started by EOY 24- we could be back to significant 50% YoY growth in 2025.

But... then what?

At that point they're up in the 2.7-3M range end of 2025.... with no more existing capacity

So I'm kinda hoping 8/8 has something to say beyond this call regarding new factories-- because without that we're just in for another plateau in '26, and to avoid that they'd need to start construction on something in the next 3-6 months.

I've thought about this too since the call yesterday.

My hunch is Tesla will deliver about 1.9-2.0 million cars for 2024, with Model 2.5 production starting early 2025 and ramping. So for 2025 I feel somewhere around 2.5 million is reasonable, given CT finalizing its ramp plus the M2.5 ramping too, added to possible M3 & MY production ramps due to higher demand from lower interest rates by then. RT unboxed production likely starts out of Austin in late 2025 to early 2026. I also think we'll see Giga Mexico construction in full swing during 2025 and ready to build either M2.5 or RT's (or both) by mid to late 2026.

So my guess is 3.0-3.5 million production by EoY 2026, with a mix of S3XY, CT, M2.5, Semi, and RT's.

2027 is where I think we'll see M2.5 production really kick off with Austin, Mexico, Berlin, and Shanghai all making it in high volumes. I also think Austin will be making lots of RT's by then too, and maybe we'll even have RT lines in other factories as well, if FSD is trained for other country's by then.

I believe 20 million cars by 2030 is off the table now, I just don't see how that's possible anymore. Maybe 10 million? Possibly 12 million if things really gel well.

 

[hobbes]

My interpretation of the term legacy player is a car maker who has a long history of making cars and needs to transform operations from ICE / PHEV to EV, instead of someone like Tesla, Lucid or Rivian who start fresh as 100% EV makers. If that is the correct definition, then Volvo is a legacy player irrespective of who owns it. I think that makes sense, if BYD buys BMW tomorrow, BMW will still be a legacy player, right?

Depends, if BYDs decided to sell vehicles from their own platform under the BMW brand, not so much, right? Just saying it is not so obvious in such a constellation how to classify a brand or and automaker...