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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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The potential for humanoids is so new and different that I think its hard for most people to comprehend how much its going to change things. Not right away of course, but as humanoids get better and more capable they are going to change the entire world economy. Demand is going to be so high that anyone making a decent humanoid will sell them all most likely.

When Elon says there will be 1,000,000,000 bots sold per year worldwide he isn't talking about anytime soon, that level of production is still decades away, if we ever hit that high at all. Doesn't change the fact that humanoids will one day (relatively soon) be the highest volume production product in the world. More manufactured per year than phones, more than cars, more than anything else.

I laugh when I hear someone say specialized robots are better and humanoids are dumb. These people just aren't understanding what's about to happen.

Someday Optimus is going to dwarf everything else Tesla makes combined. Probably within a decades time I'd say, or sometime about there.

If you read my post again you will see that I'm not displacing 1bn humans a year. But that's beside the point.

The bots are purchased by all kinds of businesses and individuals.

For instance, I don't have a live in butler/maid right now. But if I could buy a bot for $20K to do that job, I'd snap one up in heartbeat.

Bots turn the economy on its head. You have to think different.

Paying $2100 for 12 hours of GNA care 7 days/week right now. If the bot can do that job, it'll pay for itself in 10 weeks. And bonus, as long as it can charge itself in an hour or two, we'll get 10 extra hours of care, and it could do housecleaning too.
 
Would like to support Alexandra's Survey Monkey effort, but no way I am sending my stock info off to somewhere (who knows) on the internet.
You're only sharing a shareholder name and brokerage, not how many shares. I get the concern and had it too, but his seemed worth the risk for me. I've shared here plenty of time, I'm with Schwab. So.
 
When Elon says there will be 1,000,000,000 bots sold per year worldwide he isn't talking about anytime soon, that level of production is still decades away, if we ever hit that high at all. Doesn't change the fact that humanoids will one day (relatively soon) be the highest volume production product in the world. More manufactured per year than phones, more than cars, more than anything else.

Your post is full of contradictions. We may never hit 1bn bots/year, that's decades away, if at all. Yet bots will (relatively soon) be the highest volume production product in the world, more than phones.

There are about 1.2 bn new phones sold every year.

Your math ain't math'ing.
 
Would like to support Alexandra's Survey Monkey effort, but no way I am sending my stock info off to somewhere (who knows) on the internet.
So Alexandra convinces thousands of Non-American investors in Tsla to pay $50, $60, $70 to vote their shares and now she wants investors to hand over their stock info to Survey Monkey? No chance. Can BoomerMama have her own thread and not clog up the investment thread?
 
So Alexandra convinces thousands of Non-American investors in Tsla to pay $50, $60, $70 to vote their shares and now she wants investors to hand over their stock info to Survey Monkey? No chance. Can BoomerMama have her own thread and not clog up the investment thread?
She keeps getting things done that's helping Tesla shareholders , so sad :) worse we making it more visible by sharing here ;)

better would be to post what Ross, Uncle Leo and GOJO are recommending ...
 
Expect a lot of pushback once people realise bots will take their jobs.

Our society is already very polarized between employed and unemployed, it's gonna get worse.. I really can't see governments making the needed changes for bot-enabled-econony (hah I made that word up)
BEE nice.
 
That hole in the garage, like electron flow, is gonna want to get filled I believe. But I could see where you'd need additional or modified infrastructure in regions without garage space.
My car hole is full of bikes and scooters.

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That's a lot of bots! Why would you need so many when they are designed to be multifunction?
One machine to: wash the dishes, mow the lawn, make the beds, do the laundry, water the houseplants, clean the windows, cook the meal, sort the mail, fix that stuck door...and 18 hours left to the day?

Ya. 10 years and UBI won't even be a question. It will be the only way to hold civilization together.
The upheaval coming will make the BEV revolution look picayune.

Bolding mine.

I like your statement, and it is a parallel and more clear* version of Elon's statement about Tesla's value as an EV company compared to Tesla's future value as a robotics/ai company.

Elon has said (paraphrasing): relative to Tesla's potential future robotics/ai value, the value of tesla's car business is "approximately zero." Critics and others misinterpretted this as if Tesla was worthless without huge success in ai/robotics. Elon absolutely was not saying Tesla's car business is, or will be, worthless. He is saying that, compared to the future AI/robotics potential, the car business will be a rounding error.

A rounding error can be a huge number...if the thing you're comparing it to is a much bitter number. For purposes of rough mathematical estimation, a $500 Billion or $1 Trillion auto business is "approximately zero," or even picayune :D relative to a $10 Trillion or larger AI/robotics business. That doesn't mean the auto bsiness is worthless...just that it may become a relatively small part of an enormous whole.


*Your words were more clear than Elon's after I looked up the definition of picayuna ;) .
 
...

My reasoning is based on my 2014 P85D range of 265 miles my 2022 S Plaid range of 396 miles in the same physical space. Has that rate of improvement suddenly stopped?

Just to be pedantic: Only some of that range increase came from adding more kWh capacity to the battery pack in that physical space.

If I remember correctly, Tesla's original "85" batteries really had about 82 kWh. And, I think their biggest S/X batteries were all approximately 102 kWh. So, that is only a ~25% increase in capacity. Using the increased battery capacity alone, the 265 miles should have become roughly 330 miles.

However, there have also been many updates to enhance the efficiency of the vehicles (tires, wheels, aero, motors, electronics, weight, etc.), and that also increased the range.

Interestingly, it actually looks like a 50/50 split in where the extra range came from: ~65 of the extra miles can be attributed to the battery pack capacity increase, and another ~65 of the extra miles can be attributed to all the other vehicle updates.
 
You're only sharing a shareholder name and brokerage, not how many shares. I get the concern and had it too, but his seemed worth the risk for me. I've shared here plenty of time, I'm with Schwab. So.
please also state your full name on your account, andy co-owner and also your home address your statements are mailed to. And list all brokers you have accounts.
 
The number of people with a spare $20k is extremely limited.
But you will finance it and it will cut more from your budget than the payment. No more housekeeper, lawnboy, pool guy, nail salon, hair salon, laundry service, meal prep, etc.
Very limited number of people have any of those that you count in yout budget.
I do none of those things. So how will it "cut more" from my budget?

Even a small attempt at imagination would avoid this pointless back-and-forth.

I'm just adding to the diversion at this point...but this seems to have become a conversation where people are asking for a prediction of a far, FAR future potential product. Critics seem to want an inclusive list of uses for what is today an imaginary product...and then act like like the product won't have much market unless those specific predictions could sell the product to them and/or a suitably large number of consumers worldwide today.


GatorMeat was giving a few basic examples and ended the list with an "etc.", implying that a rational person could perhaps think of more examples that might apply to them.

The point was, more generally: Many MANY people today have things that they pay extra for that MAYBE a robot could do in the future. There are also people who spend time on things that they would rather not do. So, think about SOMETHING you pay for that MAYBE a robot could reduce the cost for. Or something you do "for free" yourself, but you don't enjoy doing it. Or, think about something you enjoy doing, that MAYBE other people don't -- the robot could do it for THEM and have value for THEM. This requires the use of imagination instead of a weird insistence that a random internet commenter needs to find an example that applies to you.

Again, this is a prediction of the FAR future...nobody is saying it's happening tomorrow, and there's no reason for a full marketing justification to be announced (by a random forum commenter) today.

I enjoy cooking, so it's not much value to me to have a robot cook my meals, even if it cooks the food I like. But, I'm not going to insist that EVERYBODY can or should just cook their meals. I know MANY MANY people hate cooking or don't have time for it. Even getting decent groceries is a chore many people would rather avoid. Cooking and eating at home usually means either wasting money on disposable dinnerware, or somebody spending the time to scrape the dishes/load the dishwasher/empty the dishwasher. Even that bit of cleanup dissuades people from cooking at home. So, MANY people end up spending a lot more money on either buying mostly pre-made meals, or living off junkfood, or getting unhealthy fast food, or getting take-out, or going to sit-down restaurants.

We know there is a market here -- many people would love to have more home cooked meals just to avoid expensive and/or unhealthy restaurant meals. We know many people use services like "Hello Fresh" just to short-cut the home cooked meal process. We know many people pay ~25% extra for each item, plus fees and a tip just to have Instacart or other services do their shopping and deliver their groceries.

Okay, now imagine that there's a family of 4 or 5 people. A robot becomes available that can pick up their groceries (via self driving car or robotaxi?), and then come home and cook 3 meals a day for the entire family, and clean all the pots and pans and dinnerware afterwards. Again, far far future stuff. Yes, Imagination :).

Okay...now, in todays dollars, a $20K robot paid off over the course of 5 years costs about $350 a month.

For a family of 4 or 5, how many avoided restaurant meals does it take to save $350/month? No, it's not going to work if you're replacing dollar-menu fast food restaurant meals with fillet mignon cooked at home....but good, healthy home meals cooked from basic ingredients are remarkably inexpensive relative to most restaurant faire.

Now, keep in mind that same robot can also potentially do the laundry and put the clothes away after. Mow the lawn. Trim the trees. Wash the cars. Make the beds. Dust the house. Vacuum. Clean the windows and mirrors. Scrub the toilets. And, of course, "etc." so you can maybe think of some chore that you either don't enjoy doing, or that you might currently pay for as a service.

Of course this is all "first world" stuff. No starving family living in a dirt floor hut is going to get one of these bots...but maybe in this same far future, we won't have so many suffering people in the world.

My examples also rely on some sort of an idealized group (family, friends, whatever) that lives together. Obviously, this robot has zero value to somebody that lives alone and is perfectly happy with a filthy living space while they game all day and subsist on energy drinks, chips, and multivitamines.

And of course, this is just personal use...since that's what the above conversation was about. Businesses will order up robots to fill many roles. Even just sticking to the "daily food" subject, restaurants would similarly replace waitstaff, cooks, and the cleaning crew with robots.

And since it gets brought up repeatedly...yes, robots replacing people at jobs might put many people out of work...but Elon has long pointed out that the definition of an economy would necessarily change, and something like "Universal Basic Income" will likely be needed. But, again, far future imagining here. The fact that today's political scene would implode isn't the point.

*Edited for clarity.
 
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