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Tesla Valuation Based on 5 Year Outlook
- Thread starter The Accountant
- Start date
7/8 (Financials)
- I assume no Robo-Taxi
- I assume no recognition of FSD Deferred Revenue (to keep things clean)
- I assume no recognition of the Deferred Tax Benefit (to keep things clean)
- I assume no revenues from AI products (robots, etc).
- I assume no Robo-Taxi
- I assume no recognition of FSD Deferred Revenue (to keep things clean)
- I assume no recognition of the Deferred Tax Benefit (to keep things clean)
- I assume no revenues from AI products (robots, etc).
8/8 (Free Cash Flow & Cash Balance)
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Wow, that's roughly $140/share in cash on hand (presumably with zero debt) by 2026, even considering healthy levels of dilution for employee SBC.
Does that $140 per share just get added to the share price estimate? How are cash reserves valued by the Market? TIA.
Cheers!
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I suspect that the ASP for the Cybertruck will probably be much higher in 2023. With only the quad motor version shipping at first, which is $79k if I recall correctly. (And that assumes that they don't raise the price from the tri-motor variant.)
petit_bateau
Active Member
For normal companies they just get fed straight through to the share price (mkt cap) on a 1:1 basis.
jeewee3000
Active Member
In my mind this translates to "these numbers are conservative".
I think I speak for many when I say: thank you @The Accountant for your hard work and intelligent insights. Even though I know very little of accounting and financial reports, I've read and even studied your posts in great detail and have learned so much.
new_sneakers
Member
Just posting Steven Mark Ryans's model from his recent video (
) here, as a table, for posterity.
Solving the Money Problem - Tesla model
Solving the Money Problem - Tesla model
| Year | Bear Case (6% chance) | Base Case (60% chance) | Weighted Average | Bull Case (30% chance) | Hyperbull (small chance) | Catalysts |
| 2022 | 1302 | 1713 | 1998 | |||
| 2023 | 2147 | 3445 | ||||
| 2024 | 2976 | 5005 | 1st robotaxi fare, Semi | |||
| 2025 | 3910 | 7906 | Dojo as a service, FSD licensing, Tesla Bot | |||
| 2026 | 4690 | 9946 | $25000 Tesla, half of new vehicles electric: ICE vehicle sales collapse | |||
| 2027 | 5761 | 12917 | 12917 | Insurance annual profits 0.5 billion, Tesla delivers 10+ million vehicles | ||
| 2028 | 16152 | AGI, progress with TeslaBot, gigantic fleet of subscribers to FSD | ||||
| 2029 | 8436 | 21332 | Deliveries of 12-13-14+ million, 0.25 trillion profit | |||
| 2030 | 9930 | 27201 | 15 million vehicles, hundreds of billions of profits, bankruptcy/collapse of other automakers | |||
| 2031 | 11476 | 33659 | 20 million vehicles, fleet of 80+ million, most paying for FSD subscriptions. Not including profits from Robotaxi service |
Olle
Active Member
Interesting to go through this thread and see how the price predictions have changed over the years. To take SMR's example above, in pre split price, TSLA maxed $1085 in 2022 and $880 in 2023. Short of even his bear case for both years, not by a huge amount, but still.
petit_bateau
Active Member
A lot depends on how one expects GM% to develop. The below is assuming max success case in both automotive & storage revenue, with GM% held flat at 18% in both for next 18m, then climbing dramatically to 28% from c.2025 onwards. As you can see it is only from 2025 that EPS really convincingly regains and exceeds the 2022 EPS.
So rationally the recent past and near term future should be relatively depressed share prices. The rational-perfect-foresight NPV valuation detects that in advance. PE or PEG driven valuations much less so. Always with Tesla share price the exciting time is two years away, or yesterday.
