Tesla: We are updating all reservation timelines in the next few days

[S'toon]

"No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy."

As the situation changes, so Tesla changes their plans do deal with it.

 

[Dr. J]

even though no single individual can do anything about it.

Well, there is ONE individual who can do something about Tesla's order process/delivery system. Name of Musk.

 

[Moderatefan]

We don't _really_ know where the numbers are.

Tesla tells us that if you order LR today, you'll get it in 4 months max. That's where 80k is from.
Since 418k outstanding reservations were confirmed(end of Q1), the additional production was 11k stockpiled RWDs and in July's 2+ weeks, probably another 8k of RWDs plus some small number of Ps/AWDs(Edit button starts to disappear for 3/31/16 rsv / May orders).
We know production is lagging currently, prob at 3.5-4k rate. Found a LOT of Model 3's in a Tesla lot - Pictures inside

Source[at the factory] says production still not up to speed, only 700 X/S/3 per day- should be ~1000/day of combined models

That is why I estimate 4 months production on the low end of 80k, rather than taking supposed 6k figure from the end of August.
Given ~19k existing RWDs to be delivered(or already delivered), I'm starting to suspect that if new RWD orders don't come in at a good rate, we may be nearing the end of RWD line in US/Can.
That doesn't imply we ran out of SR orders, but maybe they'll have to start producing SRs sooner than expected, like Nov instead of Dec...

 

[brianman]

Tesla made promises as to how they would roll the cars out.

One was....whoever orders first gets their car first - no matter if it was P or not.

No they did not. They've never said that about any product they've released.

That would be a logistical nightmare for any company to promise that. It's not reasonable unless your volume is on the order of 10s (not 100s, not 1000s, not 100000s) per year.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I do not recall it as so clear. I also was second in line at my Tesla store on March 31, and placed my reservations at 09:02. I was invited to configure some months ago, as have been almost everyone else (I think everyone, but I don't know that for sure). I chose to wait for AWD and P. Now that they've invited everyone to configure i think they've done all that they promised. Now they can optimize for profit without breaking a promise, can they not? After all they still offered first configurations for these cars to the people who were first in line so I did place my order on May 21, within seconds of receiving the email offer to do so. Where is the problem in any of that?

Whoaaa….

I'm not saying that there is a problem with YOUR situation, however there is no denying that the promises made are not all coming to fruition.

There ARE people who were previous owners who did not config first. There were people who waited in line that did not configure first. There were people not on the east coast that received their cars first.

Its just a fact.

 

[Garlan Garner]

No they did not. They've never said that about any product they've released.

That would be a logistical nightmare for any company to promise that. It's not reasonable unless your volume is on the order of 10s (not 100s, not 1000s, not 100000s) per year.

That's absolutely not true. Example:

Deliveries were supposed to be released on the East Coast towards the west coast.

What happened to that? There were folks in California with Model 3's far earlier than Chicago folks.


Here is a smalt start to the promises:

Tesla opens Model 3 configurator to reservation holders on the East Coast and Midwest
Tesla starts Model 3 customer deliveries on the East Coast


But wait a min:

Tesla Model 3: US West Coast Served First, Followed By Parts East, Europe, Asia, Then RHD
A Tesla Model 3 makes its way all the way across the country


That's just one example:

No worries from me though....I can't do anything about it.....so...I'll just patiently wait. .

You better believe I'm not going to wait in line in the rain and the cold for a Model Y reservation.

 

[brianman]

Deliveries were supposed to be released on the East Coast towards the west coast.

Link?

 

[Knightshade]

That's absolutely not true. Example:

Deliveries were supposed to be released on the East Coast towards the west coast.

What happened to that?

You imagined it, since that never happened.

It was exactly the opposite- they promised west coast first.

Here is a smalt start to the promises:

Tesla opens Model 3 configurator to reservation holders on the East Coast and Midwest
Tesla starts Model 3 customer deliveries on the East Coast

So...you didn't read your own links then?

Until now, Tesla was limiting Model 3 configurations and deliveries to California and to current Tesla owners.

For the first few months of Model 3 production, Tesla limited deliveries to employees, family members of employees, and other company insiders, like early investors and board members.

It started opening the online configurator to regular Model 3 reservation holders in California in November and started deliveries in December.

Both directly contradict your own claim that they ever "were supposed to be released on the East Coast towards the west coast."

 

[Garlan Garner]

You know what folks.....if it suits your fancy....let me say this.

Tesla has always met its promises and numbers.

Just read Elons Tweets.....Thankfully....all of his facts and predictions came true.
Model 3 Mega Tweetstorm: Tons of new info on production ramp, dashboard, trunk and more

 

[brianman]

You know what folks.....if it suits your fancy....let me say this.

Tesla has always met its promises and numbers.

Just read Elons Tweets.....Thankfully....all of his facts and predictions came true.
Model 3 Mega Tweetstorm: Tons of new info on production ramp, dashboard, trunk and more

Sigh.

Read my previous request. Please provide a link and a quote that support the assertion of yours that I quoted when I requested a link.

I'm trying to understand your perspective and where you're getting your impression from, but shutting down the discussion in the fashion you're doing isn't productive for anyone.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Sigh.

Read my previous request. Please provide a link and a quote that support the assertion of yours that I quoted when I requested a link.

I'm trying to understand your perspective and where you're getting your impression from, but shutting down the discussion in the fashion you're doing isn't productive for anyone.

Well....just call it unproductive......carry on...

 

[ceekz]

i have read all the posts here and haven't seen yet what seems to be a clear motivation for Tesla. Build the cars in decreasing order of profit margin (to the extent feasible operationally) to maximize Q3 & Q4 revenues and show profitability. Then as production volume ramps up at end of 2018, economy of scale should give more financial breathing room on the SR models.

I have a leased S75D that is up end of Sep. I have been waiting since day 1 and all I want is a white car with white interior. The car will eventually be shipped to Hawaii when I retire and I have no need for long range battery or P version. So now I have to decide whether to give Tesla an extra 29K over the base 35K just to have the privilege to pay 1500 for the white interior that almost certainly costs the same as the included black. I'm inclined to extend the lease for 6 mos. Yeah, I'll lose 3750 but that is offset by the 29K. I get that Tesla needs to be profitable now but I'm not quite ready to donate so much to the cause.

I turned in my leased car last week and will be driving a 2009 MINI Cooper (not an S) until my TM3 arrives "SEPT-NOV" no change from when I configured. I'm happy it has a powerful A/C system as my other option was a 1973 VW Thing...

 

[jbcarioca]

Well....just call it unproductive......carry on...

I really hate it when multiple people whose posts I usually admire become obstreperous. Maybe we're all just anxious about our new P3Ds. I know I am. I even reserved a license plate "P3D". Just that should give me delivery priority should it not?

 

[Garlan Garner]

Hey.....when is a couple days over? <-------note to the OP.

 

[Knightshade]

You know what folks.....if it suits your fancy....let me say this.

Tesla has always met its promises and numbers.

Just read Elons Tweets.....Thankfully....all of his facts and predictions came true.
Model 3 Mega Tweetstorm: Tons of new info on production ramp, dashboard, trunk and more

Well, let's see what he promised in this link-

Elon promised that both East Coast buyers and non-Tesla owners would have a chance at getting the tax credit.

Well, promise kept there then. The full $7500 doesn't phase out until after Dec 31, 2018- and east coast buyers and non-owners absolutely got a chance at the credit prior to that.

What else did he promise?

The “West Coast first” roll-out of the Model 3 is explained. Deliveries will begin nearest to Tesla’s Fremont factory first in order to quickly solve issues that might pop-up on early versions of the car.

Once again- not only promise kept- but directly contradicting your earlier claim that they ever promised the opposite.

What else did he promise in that story?

Musk explains that despite the smaller opening, a bike should still fit within the back of the Model 3. This will be aided by the ability of the back seats to fold down flat, which is also confirmed by Musk.

Kept, and kept.

RWD will be standard, but AWD is expected to be less than $5000. The Model 3’s at the reveal were indeed AWD, but Musk says the production AWD will be “much faster.”

Yup- kept and kept.

So...yeah.. seems his facts DID come true! Thanks for pointing that out

 

[miltymoots]

Hey.....when is a couple days over? <-------note to the OP.

In my world that is today

 

[Morgank6]

so...I'll just patiently wait. .

I'd hate to see what you consider waiting impatiently.

 

[Snow Drift]

I really hate it when multiple people whose posts I usually admire become obstreperous. Maybe we're all just anxious about our new P3Ds. I know I am. I even reserved a license plate "P3D". Just that should give me delivery priority should it not?

But it’s:

Model 3 PLRD
Model S P85D
Model X P100D
Etc.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

So what takes precedence then reservation or order date?

Driver A - Reserve 2016, order Jul '18
Driver B - Reserve 2017, order Jun '18

I don't have enough information. I would also need to know the configuration they ordered, the delivery locations and what batch of cars Tesla has produced or is planning on producing next, etc.

 

[PessimiStick]

But it’s:

Model 3 PLRD
Model S P85D
Model X P100D
Etc.

LR isn't necessary since there's no such thing as PSR. All P's are LRs intrinsically. 3 PD is probably more "technically correct", but since the S and X are always P###D, P3D feels better.