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You are not accounting for the fact that some portion of those 64,371 AWD/P Model 3's went to China and the rest of Asia. That production will be offloaded to Giga Shanghai, as will the production of all Model Y's for that region.They won't after Q2 2020 because 500K/year 3/Y prod capacity at Fremont is not even enough to cover US/EU demand for Model 3 LR AWD/P + Model Y LR AWD/P. They delivered 92,620*0,695= 64,371 AWD/P Model 3s in Q4 2019. Therefore they need 64,371*4= 257,484 AWD/P Model 3s per year.
i've been thinking the same thing about tesla's in general as a few of them have started showing up in our town every day. oh well..So 3 out of the 4 Model Y's in Colorado will be blue. And here I thought I was going to have a unique color.
It took Tesla 2.5 years to ramp to 95k M3s. While it should be shorter, I don't think Freemont will be making more than 50k MY per Q by the end of this year.
So I look ahead to 2021. If the China LR RWD is legit, then that likely eases the burden on Freemont as well and gives them a little more room, call it 40k a year that Fremont no longer makes for China (by the end of 2020). That means you have demand for 320,000 M3 (220 AWD, 100 SR+) based on rough extrapolation from Q4 2019. I think that feels a little light as demand should grow organically from here on out, so lets say 350k.
That leaves 150k for MY in 2020. By that point there is probably demand for 300k+, so they will still be short.
I think the more likely scenario is that they bump prices up a bit across the board to trim demand until they can get Giga Berlin up to speed to handle the EU M3 demand.
43 daysI can't believe there is not a whisper of a delivery yet. Any thoughts on current production? 100 a week, 200, 500, 1000? They are not going to want 5000 cars out there before asking people to come pick them up, but they might want 1 to a few per sales and delivery center for a big rollout on March 1st or so.
Thoughts? They did say starting deliveries in Q1, so how long can they hold off?
if tesla is on schedule, that should be in about 2-3 weeks for deliveries of performance models starting in about a month (late march per them)Can't wait for someone to post "got a call to day to schedule my MY pickup" that is legit. Then the real number crunching will start
And nothing in showrooms. Every car will go straight to deliveries. The only way to see it is to be an early buyer or hang out and watch deliveries.if tesla is on schedule, that should be in about 2-3 weeks for deliveries of performance models starting in about a month (late march per them)
one of the most amazing things about tesla growth is that they do no advertising!And nothing in showrooms. Every car will go straight to deliveries. The only way to see it is to be an early buyer or hang out and watch deliveries.
Screenshots abound from last night. Emails in the hands of those waiting for a Y. Pick the days between March 15 and March 31 that you can't pick up your Y. Came from both coasts.Can't wait for someone to post "got a call to day to schedule my MY pickup" that is legit. Then the real number crunching will start
@Troy looks like you need to update the spreadsheet again =D.
would be awesome!
- Confirmation Date
- Delivery Date
Done.