The «Full» in Full Self-Driving Capability

[mongo]

Regardless of what anybody believes is in store, I think that it's still hard to argue that the wording itself anything but a big cop out.

Didn't you hear? Soon there will be no stores to believe in

Are we talking about Tesla aligning the website around the high confidence short term features? I feel like that fixes what many have a beef with Tesla about (over promote). From the ARK podcast, it sounds like development is going well behind the scenes.

 

[verygreen]

From the ARK podcast, it sounds like development is going well behind the scenes.

I disagree here. From the podcast we learned they did not even start on any of the hard parts. See my notes from that podcast here: Tesla will be ready with full FSD by the end of the year, says Elon on a podcast today.

 

[mongo]

I disagree here. From the podcast we learned they did not even start on any of the hard parts. See my notes from that podcast here: Tesla will be ready with full FSD by the end of the year, says Elon on a podcast today.

Not seeing comments on the hard parts. I thought he said they were doing stop lights and city turns.

 

[verygreen]

Not seeing comments on the hard parts. I thought he said they were doing stop lights and city turns.

He said they are only now starting to do intersections or some such, don't remember the exact quote. In other words - don't have working intersections code! And as you can imagine intersections are kind of important in city driving.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

It is giving you the speed limit that section of road was geocoded with.

That's correct.

But, that's because it doesn't know how to read Speed limit signs.

AP1 could read speed limit signs. I fully expect HW3 to read speed limit signs, and I really hope this time around that they use this capability to enable non-HW3 vehicles to have better geocoded speed limit info.

 

[croman]

AP1 did a lousy job reading signs. My loaners kept reading school signs, speed limits aimed at trucks instead of cars, and it was a mess. As much as the geocodes are wrong and annoying, AP1 wasn't much better. There needs to a lot of contextual understanding in place before sign reading is as useful as people imagine it.

 

[Sonic_78]

FSD sounds more like a goal or the end game, not the current state. They’ll keep adding features that’ll get there eventually, hopefully. Maybe that’s why they call it Full Self-Drive “Capability”. Which was pretty much the same thing promised going back almost 3 years ago.... don’t mean to beat that dead horse.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

AP1 did a lousy job reading signs. My loaners kept reading school signs, speed limits aimed at trucks instead of cars, and it was a mess. As much as the geocodes are wrong and annoying, AP1 wasn't much better. There needs to a lot of contextual understanding in place before sign reading is as useful as people imagine it.

To an extent I agree. When I had an AP1 Model S it did occasionally read signs wrong, but in terms of accuracy per mile it was much better than the maps based one that I have now with the Model 3.

In any case I expect HW3 to enable much more precise sign reading than MobileEye had way back then. It also allows for cross checking between the two systems so either the geomapped info can get updated, or the Neural Net for the sign reading can be improved. Probably something they didn't have freedom to do with MobileEye based HW1.

 

[croman]

To an extent I agree. When I had an AP1 Model S it did occasionally read signs wrong, but in terms of accuracy per mile it was much better than the maps based one that I have now with the Model 3.

In any case I expect HW3 to enable much more precise sign reading than MobileEye had way back then. It also allows for cross checking between the two systems so either the geomapped info can get updated, or the Neural Net for the sign reading can be improved. Probably something they didn't have freedom to do with MobileEye based HW1.

I think I can agree. The GPS information means that certain regions and areas are more accurate than others. It is a useful floor for the system to provide a good foundation.

Sign reading is location and information agnostic (though certain regional signs might be easier to train), so it has a higher ceiling of usefulness.

I can see synergy but it also seems like low hanging fruit that Tesla hasn't been able to implement for 2.5 years now.

 

[BridgeMojo]

Just for sake of comparison: Until a couple of years ago I was using a Tomtom GPS standalone navigation device which had speed limits based on location data. My impression is that it was significantly more accurate than the data Tesla is using.

It's not a bad way to go, they just need a better data set.

 

[mongo]

Just for sake of comparison: Until a couple of years ago I was using a Tomtom GPS standalone navigation device which had speed limits based on location data. My impression is that it was significantly more accurate than the data Tesla is using.

It's not a bad way to go, they just need a better data set.

At least Tesla updates OTA... Our 2019 Ford purchased in 2018 came with the wrong speed limits. A 2018 Ford tried to kill us by routing us via a two track up the side of mountain in Tennessee (top tip: never select shortest route, it is purely distance based)

 

[electronblue]

At least Tesla updates OTA... Our 2019 Ford purchased in 2018 came with the wrong speed limits. A 2018 Ford tried to kill us by routing us via a two track up the side of mountain in Tennessee (top tip: never select shortest route, it is purely distance based)

The upgrades are a blessing and a curse though. Tesla’s database change from some year(s) back went from better to worse and has remained that way.

 

[wcorey]

That's correct.

But, that's because it doesn't know how to read Speed limit signs.

AP1 could read speed limit signs. I fully expect HW3 to read speed limit signs, and I really hope this time around that they use this capability to enable non-HW3 vehicles to have better geocoded speed limit info.

I believe the March 15th drop does speed limit signs, yield signs, exit signs, and traffic lights. I was shocked at how poorly some states or cities/towns fair at proper coding. I wonder if that would create enough chaff to evade a speeding ticket? It's not just Teslas that use that.

 

[wcorey]

Umm, I suggest you take you ball and go home, @verygreen has had a Tesla for far longer that you've even been dreaming of a m3 and has given us some of the deepest insights ever about the inner workings of Tesla software.

You have no F clue what I know or drive and your hero worship is.... creepy.

 

[KyleDay]

You have no F clue what I know or drive and your hero worship is.... creepy.

Yes but we do know that you don't know who @verygreen is and that says enough.

It's not hero worship, but we do give recognition for @verygreen's contributions to understanding the Tesla architecture and internals.

 

[wcorey]

Or does FSD guarantee me eventual level 4/5 if I own this car long enough for then to be available?

I don't think level 5 is a practical level. In order to achieve that you'd need heated camera cavities, de-icing, more redundancy. The key to that is the word "ALL" in all conditions. That does not preclude situations where it would be foolhardy for a human to attempt driving. Once you equivocate on what ALL means, you've entered the 'depends on what the meaning of IS is territory. Level 4 is absolutely doable. And, allegedly, perhaps 22 months away. I don't believe any current Tesla models will see level 5, However, and SAE doesn't cover this, rather than operate under ALL conditions, if that were changed to say either operate in any condition or refuse to operate. In other words, do no harm.

 

[lunitiks]

That does not preclude situations where it would be foolhardy for a human to attempt driving

Yes it does. Level 5 doesn’t mean superhuman. It means the system handles all dynamic driving tasks not limited by manufacturer preset areas or times or weather conditions.

Level 5...

... permits engagement of the [system] under all driver-manageable on-road conditions

More:

“Unconditional/not ODD-specific” means that the ADS can operate the vehicle under all driver-manageable road conditions within its region of the world. This means, for example, that there are no design-based weather, time-of-day, or geographical restrictions on where and when the ADS can operate the vehicle. However, there may be conditions not manageable by a driver in which the ADS would also be unable to complete a given trip (e.g., white-out snow storm, flooded roads, glare ice, etc.) until or unless the adverse conditions clear. At the onset of such unmanageable conditions the ADS would perform the DDT fallback to achieve a minimal risk condition (e.g., by pulling over to the side of the road and waiting for the conditions to change).

 

[strangecosmos]

He said they are only now starting to do intersections or some such, don't remember the exact quote. In other words - don't have working intersections code! And as you can imagine intersections are kind of important in city driving.

Elon: “I'm driving right now the development version of Autopilot and it works extremely well in terms of recognizing traffic lights and stop signs and is now starting to make turns effectively in complex urban environments.”

Source: Tesla Feb 28 Secret Conference Call Transcript - Full Self Driving; Model 3 & More

By the way, sounds like these press calls won’t be secret in the future: Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[iTech]

Elon: “I'm driving right now the development version of Autopilot and it works extremely well in terms of recognizing traffic lights and stop signs and is now starting to make turns effectively in complex urban environments.”

Source: Tesla Feb 28 Secret Conference Call Transcript - Full Self Driving; Model 3 & More

By the way, sounds like these press calls won’t be secret in the future: Elon Musk on Twitter

Yeah I bet it works really well driving around SF and LA.

 

[electronblue]

I believe the March 15th drop does speed limit signs, yield signs, exit signs, and traffic lights. I was shocked at how poorly some states or cities/towns fair at proper coding. I wonder if that would create enough chaff to evade a speeding ticket? It's not just Teslas that use that.

I do not believe there has been any word of AP2/2.5/3 recognizing speed limit signs ever? Certainly Elon has not mentioned it together with stops signs and traffic lights in the recent comments I believe.