There will be NO HW4 upgrade for HW3 owners

[ddeflyer]

Generally saying you are the top or leading or such is going to be considered fluffery unless you are specifically sighting some concrete benchmark and it is provable that you lied about the benchmark (ie if you said you were leading in a category according to JD powers but they said someone else was the leader in that category).

What makes the situation with Tesla more complicated and difficult is that it seems pretty easily shown that Musk has, on several occasions, promised certain features to be available with specific hardware and people made purchases from Tesla due to his statements. Now of course there will be debate about the meaning of those features and such and that will be very messy in court to figure out.

 

[Ruffles]

Another thing to keep in mind is that many of us are equating a new HW gen with new abilities / performance but I thought I heard somewhere (Twitter live or something?) that the main goal with HW 4 was cost & energy savings. As Tesla continues to scale production, replacing hardware with something cheaper that still gets the job done would further improve margins. Has anyone else heard this?

 

[mtndrew1]

Another thing to keep in mind is that many of us are equating a new HW gen with new abilities / performance but I thought I heard somewhere (Twitter live or something?) that the main goal with HW 4 was cost & energy savings. As Tesla continues to scale production, replacing hardware with something cheaper that still gets the job done would further improve margins. Has anyone else heard this?

The HW4 chips will probably be on a smaller process and result in better performance per watt but I don’t believe the current HW3 uses enough power to matter very much.

For example if you cut the HW3 consumption in half it might not affect the EPA range at all.

 

[Daniel in SD]

The HW4 chips will probably be on a smaller process and result in better performance per watt but I don’t believe the current HW3 uses enough power to matter very much.

For example if you cut the HW3 consumption in half it might not affect the EPA range at all.

Yeah they said 72W at autonomy day so less that 1% of total power. They also already announced in 2019 that HW4 would be 3 times faster.

 

[lowtek]

... HW3 is extremely capable ... watch the 1 hour long video about it when they first announced it ...

When you buy a new iPhone do all your apps just stop working?

HW4 is

 

[lowtek]

You have two choices:

1) Progress
2) 100% backwards compatibility

Pick one.

What’s Tesla supposed to do? Just stop at HW3? Nope.

Everyone is overreacting to this … HW3 is incredibly powerful … and there are too many on the road now to abandon, not at all the same situation as HW2.

 

[kabin]

... HW3 is extremely capable ... watch the 1 hour long video about it when they first announced it ...

When you buy a new iPhone do all your apps just stop working?

HW4 is

Yep, it was all the rage when HW3 was announced but they made the mistake of comparing it to current off the shelf processors and didn't have reasonable estimates of necessary FSD processing workload. They said HW3 had so much capability they could run the HW and SW with dual redundancy for added safety. They had to ditch that wet dream. It really tells the story about how far-off they were all the while patting themselves on the back. And now we're suppose to believe HW3 just needs single-stack V11 magic SW to fix everything. Right!

They are already working on HW5 so don't be surprised if HW4 has something short of an optimal outcome.

 

[Daniel in SD]

You have two choices:

1) Progress
2) 100% backwards compatibility

Pick one.

What’s Tesla supposed to do? Just stop at HW3? Nope.

Everyone is overreacting to this … HW3 is incredibly powerful … and there are too many on the road now to abandon, not at all the same situation as HW2.

Why wouldn’t they abandon it?
This isn’t software you can just have run slower on older hardware.

 

[lowtek]

Why wouldn’t they abandon it?
This isn’t software you can just have run slower on older hardware.

Yes it is actually. It just won’t be as good but neither with HW4 against HW5 … or 6 … 7 … etc

So Tesla, just stop on HW3 because people are upset (moderator edit).

 

[lowtek]

Also, the problem isn’t processing power, that’s just part of it. Machine learning (AI) in general sucks at edge cases.

So many misconceptions about how AI actually works … the media spins it like a sci-fi movie when a closer comparison is your microwave.

 

[kabin]

Also, the problem isn’t processing power, that’s just part of it. Machine learning (AI) in general sucks at edge cases.

So many misconceptions about how AI actually works … the media spins it like a sci-fi movie when a closer comparison is your microwave.

'Edge cases' is an AI spin. There's a whole bunch more 'cases' that anyone wants to admit. And until someone starts providing more details it's just feel-good hand waiving.

 

[enemji]

Going to need to see the exact quote. Did they say they were “the leading” or “a leading”? I would say 2nd place makes you a leader but not the leader.

Here’s how US electric vehicle sales by maker and EV model through Q3 2022 compare

2022 has been the biggest year for electric vehicles in the United States on record as automakers go head to...

electrek.co

https://electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2022/10/US-electric-vehicle-sales-by-model-YTD-2022-5.png

 

[lowtek]

'Edge cases' is an AI spin. There's a whole bunch more 'cases' that anyone wants to admit. And until someone starts providing more details it's just feel-good handing waiving.

No doubt, I was saying that edge cases always get you, software developers know this. You think your 95% done and suddenly realize you have 95% to go.

Everybody needs to keep in mind that this has never been attempted, or anything remotely close to it, at this scale. There will be blunders, setbacks, and resets.

We will definitely end up with an overall safer driving experience but we’re a long way from iRobot.

 

[enemji]

General Motors Is "Leading" The World In EVs — 26 EVs Sold In Q4 - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! General Motors, the company that President Biden claimed is “leading the world” in electric vehicles, has successfully redefined the term, “leading.” The company announced that its total sales for Q4 2021...

cleantechnica.com

 

[Mr. Michael]

No doubt, I was saying that edge cases always get you, software developers know this. You think your 95% done and suddenly realize you have 95% to go.

Everybody needs to keep in mind that this has never been attempted, or anything remotely close to it, at this scale. There will be blunders, setbacks, and resets.

We will definitely end up with an overall safer driving experience but we’re a long way from iRobot.

Edge cases like the speed limit, or winter? A bit better than my Roomba (iRobot), but sucks a whole lot more.

 

[2101Guy]

So if I bought a GM EV with their call “leading EV manufacturer“, can I claim damages knowing now that it is not a leading EV manufacturer?

I don’t know. You tell me

 

[2101Guy]

General Motors Is "Leading" The World In EVs — 26 EVs Sold In Q4 - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! General Motors, the company that President Biden claimed is “leading the world” in electric vehicles, has successfully redefined the term, “leading.” The company announced that its total sales for Q4 2021...

cleantechnica.com

So is your suit against GM or Biden?

 

[Daniel in SD]

General Motors Is "Leading" The World In EVs — 26 EVs Sold In Q4 - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! General Motors, the company that President Biden claimed is “leading the world” in electric vehicles, has successfully redefined the term, “leading.” The company announced that its total sales for Q4 2021...

cleantechnica.com

Need exact quote and date from CEO. There's lots of anti-GM bias out there.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Need exact quote and date from CEO. There's lots of anti-GM bias out there.

Probably talking about this interview and quote:
"Well, we have said, just like we’re the leader today, if you set aside you know with the distortion that’s happening with the semi shortage, we have been the leader in the United States. We’ve been number two in China for many years. I think, when you get to wanting to get 50% all EVs, you have to win customers that only drive one vehicle. They only own one vehicle. They depend on that vehicle every day."
CEO Mary Barra pledges to not give up GM's "leadership position" in the EV space
She was responding to this from the interviewer:
"Right now, GM, in terms of the electric vehicle market, you have about 9-10% of the market. Tesla has about 63% of the market. Five years from now, if you succeed — but everybody else has their own success in this space — what does that pie chart look like?” Sorkin asked. "

So even in the face of the interviewer giving the figures to her directly, she outright lied about GM being the EV leader in the US at the time. This was not a forward looking statement either (which there typically is some leeway given even if you don't necessarily meet them).

 

[Daniel in SD]

Probably talking about this interview and quote:
"Well, we have said, just like we’re the leader today, if you set aside you know with the distortion that’s happening with the semi shortage, we have been the leader in the United States. We’ve been number two in China for many years. I think, when you get to wanting to get 50% all EVs, you have to win customers that only drive one vehicle. They only own one vehicle. They depend on that vehicle every day."
CEO Mary Barra pledges to not give up GM's "leadership position" in the EV space
She was responding to this from the interviewer:
"Right now, GM, in terms of the electric vehicle market, you have about 9-10% of the market. Tesla has about 63% of the market. Five years from now, if you succeed — but everybody else has their own success in this space — what does that pie chart look like?” Sorkin asked. "

So even in the face of the interviewer giving the figures to her directly, she outright lied about GM being the EV leader in the US at the time. This was not a forward looking statement either (which there typically is some leeway given even if you don't necessarily meet them).

Yeah, I don't think they would be leader even without the semiconductor shortage. However, that's a hypothetical and she acknowledged that they are not the leader today. Have they been the leader? They certainly were when they were leasing the EV1. I'm not sure if they have ever been the leader since then.