There will be NO HW4 upgrade for HW3 owners

[dansev]

Really?

I think it’s amazing if I’m the only car on the road or if traffic’s light, but …

The speed based lane changes absolutely suck with even just moderate traffic.

It sucks in stop and go traffic.

It sucks when merging with cars entering the highway.

It sucks at reacting early to stopped traffic far ahead, only reacting to what’s close by, only recognizing individual cars as opposed to traffic as a grouping of objects.

It sucks when the current lane turns into two lanes (staying in the center until it finally realizes what’s going on and quickly jerking into one of the lanes).

It sucks when the current lane ends and merges with the next lane.

It sucks when coming up to an 18-wheeler and not giving it extra room (cracked windshields must be its kink).

It sucks at following the speed limit when it goes down (supposed to slow down before the sign, not after).

Because the lane change logic sucks, it sometimes misses the exit, adding another 5 to 10 minutes to a trip.

I can’t wait to get v11. I love the Beta and hope the highway experience improves with the unified tech stack.

It’s all about perspective. You’re not wrong on anything you say, as far as I can tell. I can relate to each of those “sucks”. I just come at it from the opposite perspective. I come at it from a place where I used to have to clutch the wheel, literally in a life or death way, and keep my feet glued to a pedal, for a couple hours a day, or more. It was killing my back and body and making me miserable and worrying about my economic future if I decided I didn’t want to drive as much anymore.

Then I bought the M3. Navigate on Autopilot allows me to reduce that aforementioned bodily stress by about 90%. Sure I have to takeover when merging. Sure I have to takeover when lanes combine (WHY can’t they fix that driving in the middle of a huge lane thing??) Yes I need to intervene but in a 75 minute drive, those instances are about 2 total minutes of driving. The rest are completely relaxed, watching the road, being aware and present, but completely relaxed. That does NOT suck!

FSDb is not like that. It’s more stressful than driving without it. Sure it’s remarkable if we’re being objective: nothing like it has ever existed for the masses. But it needs to be remarkably better for any kind of real, widespread use. And, quite simply, it’s not what I paid for. Legally, I think that’s a problem if it never gets significantly better.

 

[Wi11iam]

I feel sorry for those folks that have bought multiple cars and kept buying into the broken promises of FSD.

This buyer isn't falling for it though. Model Y will replace our 3 later this year and have I a reservation for a Cybertruck, neither of which will get FSD until they deliver something that doesn't have "beta" tagged on the end.

But, just but... even the basic autopilot (AutoSteer) still has the beta tag...

 

[drtimhill]

Apparently there will be no free upgrade Elon Musk kills hope of Tesla retrofitting new Autopilot/Self-Driving hardware

Which seems very unfair given I paid 10k and other folks here paid even more. Honestly that makes me want to pursue some sort of recourse.

That's tricky. Tesla will argue (perhaps validly) that what you paid for was functionality, not the means by which the functionality was realized. And if they can argue that they have delivered what they promised from a functional perspective then I dont see how you can argue you are entitled to H4. OTOH if you can show that HW4 is needed to deliver on previous promises, you may have a case.

 

[DarkForest]

That's tricky. Tesla will argue (perhaps validly) that what you paid for was functionality, not the means by which the functionality was realized. And if they can argue that they have delivered what they promised from a functional perspective then I dont see how you can argue you are entitled to H4. OTOH if you can show that HW4 is needed to deliver on previous promises, you may have a case.

On April 2019, Elon stated very clearly that every Tesla manufactured since October 2016 had the hardware necessary for RoboTaxi, and he also stated that we would get “level five, no geo-fence” by the end of 2019.

So we clearly paid for the functionality and the means.

 

[KArnold]

And if they can argue that they have delivered what they promised from a functional perspective then I dont see how you can argue you are entitled to H4.

I don't need HW4 if they can get SAE level 5 with HW3. But that seems unlikely.

That's what was promised.

 

[AndrewZ]

On April 2019, Elon stated very clearly that every Tesla manufactured since October 2016 had the hardware necessary for RoboTaxi, and he also stated that we would get “level five, no geo-fence” by the end of 2019.

So we clearly paid for the functionality and the means.

What was that quote exactly? To gauge how much their butts are covered

Most of the stuff I've seen says something along the lines of "every Tesla manufactured has the hardware to achieve Full Self-driving at a level substantially greater than that of a human driver", which could just mean a Level 2 ADAS that produces fewer accidents per million miles when in use.

 

[2101Guy]

What was that quote exactly? To gauge how much their butts are covered

Most of the stuff I've seen says something along the lines of "every Tesla manufactured has the hardware to achieve Full Self-driving at a level substantially greater than that of a human driver", which could just mean a Level 2 ADAS that produces fewer accidents per million miles when in use.

Post 13 in this thread to start with:

Apple Co Founder: "FSD is a frightening, horrible experience".

There are also MANY other instances where Elon has promised self driving level 5 autonomous vehicles/capabilities/functions for YEARS now. Have you missed…ALL of them?

 

[AndrewZ]

Post 13 in this thread to start with:

Apple Co Founder: "FSD is a frightening, horrible experience".

There are also MANY other instances where Elon has promised self driving level 5 autonomous vehicles/capabilities/functions for YEARS now. Have you missed…ALL of them?

DarkForest you are seriously on the ball here, even with an exact timestamp

Relax dude. As usual I'm not defending any of this, I think all of it has been very carefully orchestrated and want to look at it through the lens of a lawyer with reviewing exact quotes, context, etc, because all that will matter if and when it comes down to that.

People should probably be thanking Colin Langan, he is one of the very few (maybe the only) asking the hard questions and in a way that breaks the script. My opinion would be that this Autonomy Day in 2019 is likely what incited the Cali DMV emails/letters and the shift in narrative that has continued today. Maybe Mr. Langan was involved in that, maybe the DMV was watching and just knew none of it could be reality, but I think this was the start.


Colin Langan was working for UBS in 2019, lets bring this full circle to the Q3 2022 Earnings Call where he was working with Wells Fargo and again asked about Level 4-5 at 43:27. Elon had refined his technique these years later, Colin drilled again about Level 4-5, and listen to his frustration at the end of Elon yammering on about not touching the wheel and the March of 9s.

Tesla Q3 2022 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast

Start of call: https://youtu.be/DnnSKkd2etk?t=440To submit a question: https://app.saytechnologies.com/tesla-2022-q3

www.youtube.com

Unrelated but Colin's question about the IRA was also top tier. Reviewing his questions here, I think this is an Auto analyst to follow closely.

 

[drtimhill]

I don't need HW4 if they can get SAE level 5 with HW3. But that seems unlikely.

That's what was promised.

In your opinion that's what was promised. But, again, you would need to be able to argue that legally. I'm not making any opinion here for or against Tesla, but if you are going to argue that you entitles to HW4 then you need to be in solid ground.

 

[drtimhill]

On April 2019, Elon stated very clearly that every Tesla manufactured since October 2016 had the hardware necessary for RoboTaxi, and he also stated that we would get “level five, no geo-fence” by the end of 2019.

So we clearly paid for the functionality and the means.

While I'd love that we all get HW4 (me too!), you have to be careful with this kind of argument. Do you have any legal or contractual documents stating what Tesla would deliver in the future for your car? With dates? The problem with "Elon says" arguments is that it's far from clear what is legally binding for Tesla. All you need is one little asterisk on the web site pointing to a disclaimer and your argument collapses. Sure, you may not like it, and I may not like it, but at the end of the day its an uphill battle arguing from casual promises to legal obligations (look at the "Funding Secured" lawsuit for an example of that!).

 

[drtimhill]

Post 13 in this thread to start with:

Apple Co Founder: "FSD is a frightening, horrible experience".

There are also MANY other instances where Elon has promised self driving level 5 autonomous vehicles/capabilities/functions for YEARS now. Have you missed…ALL of them?

And have you missed the CEO of GM stating that GM is the "leading EV manufacturer" once a couple of months back? Or (insert idiotic claim by CEO) of (insert any company here)?

 

[AndrewZ]

And have you missed the CEO of GM stating that GM is the "leading EV manufacturer" once a couple of months back? Or (insert idiotic claim by CEO) of (insert any company here)?

That doesn't really have consumer protection implications though

Sad reality is that any action taken around this stuff will spend years in the system and probably result in a relative slap on the wrist. Elon and the people he consulted with knew it, that's why they took the risk, and that's what people like Woz are shining a light on.

Further protected by arbitration clasuses and this and that. Earnings calls themselves are preceded by a disclaimer around forward-looking statements, I wasn't able to find that in the Autonomy Day presentation though.

 

[lb92677]

Here is a thought... Elon stated that full FSD could be accomplished on HW3 and that HW4 would not be needed since it would be too involved and expensive to upgrade. If rewiring the car is the limiting step, my thinking is that if HW4 becomes necessary to achieve better and safer humanlike driving over HW3 why not upgrade what is economically feasible ( new computer and cameras without rewiring ). This would allow existing owners to come close to what the new HW4 could do. Call it HW 3.5.

 

[Daveb25]

I think the major problem is once HW4 is released the R&D to improve the function of HW3 will be reduced immediately and drastically reduced over time. Eventually we will be forgotten and won’t receive any meaningful updates leaving us with not even a half baked product that has been paid for with unrealistic promises made by the CEO. There is no way they continue to expend the resources and time to improve on a product they no longer produce.

 

[AndrewZ]

I think the major problem is once HW4 is released the R&D to improve the function of HW3 will be reduced immediately and drastically reduced over time. Eventually we will be forgotten and won’t receive any meaningful updates leaving us with not even a half baked product that has been paid for with unrealistic promises made by the CEO. There is no way they continue to expend the resources and time to improve on a product they no longer produce.

We can just reference what happened with the HW2 camera upgrade, it'll likely be the same type of situation except with zero intent to upgrade anything.

 

[lb92677]

I think the major problem is once HW4 is released the R&D to improve the function of HW3 will be reduced immediately and drastically reduced over time. Eventually we will be forgotten and won’t receive any meaningful updates leaving us with not even a half baked product that has been paid for with unrealistic promises made by the CEO. There is no way they continue to expend the resources and time to improve on a product they no longer produce.

I think it will be harder for Tesla to abandon HW3 since we now have 400,000 FSD beta users.

 

[kabin]

I think it will be harder for Tesla to abandon HW3 since we now have 400,000 FSD beta users.

That would make sense but it sure seems like Tesla has a knack for being shorted sighted and comfortable running the show with a 'one in the hand' versus 'two in the bush' business plan. It's about the current bottom line. Correct me if I'm wrong- Tesla deleted USS, lumbar support adjustment, homelink, radar, and for an extra fee - mobile connector whereas some things just plain don't work and may never fully function even at a ridiculous initial cost - park assist, smart summons, FSDb, ...

 

[FloridaJohn]

I think it will be harder for Tesla to abandon HW3 since we now have 400,000 FSD beta users.

Lol. That will be Tesla’s easiest decision.

There are too many HW3 cars now. The logistics of doing a conversion are now too big for Tesla to handle.

Be prepared for years of promises that they are “working on it” so that as many cars as possible are removed from the fleet before there are any negative consequences for Tesla.

 

[JHCCAZ]

I think it will be harder for Tesla to abandon HW3 since we now have 400,000 FSD beta users.

Lol. That will be Tesla’s easiest decision.

There are too many HW3 cars now. The logistics of doing a conversion are now too big for Tesla to handle....

I think what @lb92677 was referring to here, was not the issue of HHardware convrrsion (retrofit,) but the issue of long-term ongoing support for AP/FSD software of the HW3 fleet.

 

[AndrewZ]

They'll get the single stack going and that will probably be basically it, that's the final piece for this iteration