Third quarter deliveries 2017

[Hogfighter]

26,012.

Just sayin'

 

[schonelucht]

Well done to @Hogfighter and a few others that were close as well!

 

[schonelucht]

I am in the 30k camp this time around.

After getting this wrong so much (deserve the funny qualifier for this one @mmd ). I shouldn't do it. But still.

Automotive revenue/cost : equal to Q1 (we delivered more cars, but at average lower sales price due to product mix according to guidance) but add in 5k for each car in EAP/FSD revenue : $2,165,810. Cost set to 80% of revenue due to 20% guidance margin or $ 1,732,648
Leasing revenue/cost : straight line increase between Q1, Q2, Q3. Revenue of $290,988 and cost of $184,840
Energy systems : same as Q2. Door-to-door sales of SCTY stopped, but storage ramping up. $286,790 revenue, $203,762 cost
Services : same as Q2. May even be worse $216,161 revenue, $271,169 cost

Gross profit of $567,320M or down 15% from last quarter.

R&D : straight line increase between Q1, Q2, Q3. $417,508
SG&A : 20% reduction due to full integration of SCTY sales org in TSLA. $430,205

Operational loss of $280,393 or again roughly 15% worse from last quarter.

Interest expense : straight line increase between Q1, Q2, Q3 : $117,536
Interest income : same : $6,480
Other income : zero, shifting currency valuation should help here to offset previous quarter loss
Taxes :same as last quarter

Net loss : $407,09640 or roughly the same thing as last quarter

Losses attributable to non controlling interest : same as last Q1, Q2 or $65,000.

Net loss attributable to shareholders : $342,096, again roughly the same thing as last quarter

Basically the improvement in SG&A due to the termination of the SCTY sales organisation is offset by the worse gross margin.

Possible positives : ZEV credits, better margin than guided.
Possible negatives : extra charges in SG&A related to SCTY sales org termination

 

[neroden]

I suspect that the shift from in-house leases to cash sales will, at some point, start showing up as increased revenue on the Tesla Energy side, simply due to the different accounting. (i.e. new revenue recognized mostly upfront, but revenue from old leases still coming in now.) Not sure when it'll be large enough to be significant.

 

[jimmyjohn]

Sorry --- as I'm sure that this has been asked / answered already...

Units in Transit ---- how did this metric compare (as a % of units delivered) to prior quarters?

Again, sorry to ask a question that has already been discussed.

Thanks

 

[SBenson]

After getting this wrong so much (deserve the funny qualifier for this one @mmd ). I shouldn't do it. But still.

Automotive revenue/cost : equal to Q1 (we delivered more cars, but at average lower sales price due to product mix according to guidance) but add in 5k for each car in EAP/FSD revenue : $2,165,810. Cost set to 80% of revenue due to 20% guidance margin or $ 1,732,648
Leasing revenue/cost : straight line increase between Q1, Q2, Q3. Revenue of $290,988 and cost of $184,840
Energy systems : same as Q2. Door-to-door sales of SCTY stopped, but storage ramping up. $286,790 revenue, $203,762 cost
Services : same as Q2. May even be worse $216,161 revenue, $271,169 cost

Gross profit of $567,320M or down 15% from last quarter.

R&D : straight line increase between Q1, Q2, Q3. $417,508
SG&A : 20% reduction due to full integration of SCTY sales org in TSLA. $430,205

Operational loss of $280,393 or again roughly 15% worse from last quarter.

Interest expense : straight line increase between Q1, Q2, Q3 : $117,536
Interest income : same : $6,480
Other income : zero, shifting currency valuation should help here to offset previous quarter loss
Taxes :same as last quarter

Net loss : $407,09640 or roughly the same thing as last quarter

Losses attributable to non controlling interest : same as last Q1, Q2 or $65,000.

Net loss attributable to shareholders : $342,096, again roughly the same thing as last quarter

Basically the improvement in SG&A due to the termination of the SCTY sales organisation is offset by the worse gross margin.

Possible positives : ZEV credits, better margin than guided.
Possible negatives : extra charges in SG&A related to SCTY sales org termination

In the Q2 Shareholder letter Tesla guided to "operating expenses should remain essentially flat."

I took that as, any savings on SCTY side will be used on the TSLA side. I don't think expecting 20% reduction in SG&A is correct.

 

[Out4aDuck]

It looks like our bell curve is centered on the correct answer!
Wisdom of the crowd.

 

[RobStark]

It looks like our bell curve is centered on the correct answer!
Wisdom of the crowd.

Q4 ~40k

 

[dc_h]

Q4 ~40k

43,203

 

[heltok]

Q4: 38442

 

[JonG]

S and X peak at 26k, sales do good, bad, good, bad cycle, q4 due to dip. and drop further because of switches from ms to M3

M3 production still has to ramp up, 1k Oct, 2k Nov, 3k Dec

Total prediction may be low end at 30k, high end 35k.

 

[TaoJones]

Was fine with the Q3 numbers. Glad to see an upgrade announced after hours today.

A few thousand Model 3s shipped in Q4 would be a nice dash of icing upon a well-deserved annual cake’s worth of numbers.

 

[schonelucht]

In the Q2 Shareholder letter Tesla guided to "operating expenses should remain essentially flat."

I took that as, any savings on SCTY side will be used on the TSLA side. I don't think expecting 20% reduction in SG&A is correct.

Ouch. If true, that would be ugly.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

In the Q2 Shareholder letter Tesla guided to "operating expenses should remain essentially flat."

I took that as, any savings on SCTY side will be used on the TSLA side. I don't think expecting 20% reduction in SG&A is correct.

I agree with this post. Management guidance for flat SG&A is already unbelievable imho.

I input rising SG&A in my financial model, but the revenue growth will be multiple times greater throughout the coming quarters.

 

[SBenson]

Ouch. If true, that would be ugly.

FWIW, consensus analyst estimates are -2.118 non-gaap-eps and -2.584 gaap-eps.

Absolute worst of all history.

However, they are also absolute worst of all forward projections.

Market is forward looking.

So...

 

[dennis]

S and X peak at 26k, sales do good, bad, good, bad cycle, q4 due to dip. and drop further because of switches from ms to M3

In Monday's delivery report Tesla guided to 100K S+X for the year, which would mean 27K in Q4. An increase, not a drop.

 

[JonG]

In Monday's delivery report Tesla guided to 100K S+X for the year, which would mean 27K in Q4. An increase, not a drop.

I thought this was what we thought? I’m just going of the trend.

I’m also still looking into CPO site numbers, especially the size of Tesla’s new car fleet. I went back to the various CPO sites and looking at the UK cars only they’ve now become very out of date, a function of Tesla not listing their cars on summary pages making them really hard to find. I now have 400 uk cars v sub 100 listed on other cpo sites, but for this thread, 400 cars, if registered, is a significant car park. If not it needs to be out the cars in transit number but that doesn’t seem to have gone up rapidly. I have some time at the weekend so may turn my algorithms on the us market to get more data points as the uk could be a local issue as suggested. What would a sensible US, new car inventory number be for the US?