Tracking Multi-red production and sequencing

[artsci]

Fellow Reds! Might have a first sign of positive news!
He told me my order was actually just submitted to the factory yesterday (!!).

The "bad" news is he said it is generally about two months to delivery after orders enter the factory, which would be early May delivery (technically still within the "April/May" window...). I believe other posts in the forum have indicated a faster overall cycle time, but I wanted to get your thoughts? However long the remaining wait is, I'm glad to at least pass this milestone!

With all due respect, that's not reason for optimism. An order being submitted to the factory does not mean it's actually being built or will anytime soon. It just means that you've agreed to buy it and it's on the list for production. And the "The factory is building your Model S" on MyTesla is the same thing. It's just on the list for production. The notice of delivery is what counts here. That means your car has in fact been built or the production of your car is finished to the point that Tesla can be confident about setting a delivery date.

 

[atlg8or]

@artsci - agreed that Delivery notice is what we're all anticipating, but I took this as a positive step since MyTesla has noted "The factory is building your Model S" since I completed my finalization and paperwork back on 12/3/12. I've also called previously over the past few months (considering other order adjustments), and they indicated then that I could make changes easily until my order was submitted to the factory. So, while none of us will begin to chill the champagne until the Delivery notices begin to flow, I'm taking every possible bit of good news I can get.

 

[DrDave]

ABSOLUTELY, I check the plant and the test track several time a week, and will definitely post pictures and comments if/when I see RED.

Anything going on at the track this week?

 

[Doug Martoccia]

If someone was to post a webcam feed link, we'd all be watching the track for hours on end. Hint Hint!

 

[DLM270]

Anything going on at the track this week?

I checked yesterday, and did not see any RED. :crying: I did see a SIG Red near the Service Area on Monday.

Will swing by the plant again tomorrow and report.:smile:

 

[andrewket]

I checked yesterday, and did not see any RED. :crying: I did see a SIG Red near the Service Area on Monday.

Will swing by the plant again tomorrow and report.:smile:

I think we'll get a report of a delivery button long before you see a red car on the track. At this point you're likely wasting your time.

 

[highfalutintodd]

I think we'll get a report of a delivery button long before you see a red car on the track. At this point you're likely wasting your time.

And this is different from the time we all waste here on TMC how? ;-)

 

[DLM270]

I think we'll get a report of a delivery button long before you see a red car on the track. At this point you're likely wasting your time.

I agree we may see a delivery button report before seeing Red outside the plant, but I do not consider the 'drive bys' a waste of time. At least it gets me off the Forum for a while, and this is good.:biggrin:

 

[xhawk101]

I agree we may see a delivery button report before seeing Red outside the plant, but I do not consider the 'drive bys' a waste of time. At least it gets me off the Forum for a while, and this is good.:biggrin:

Definitely not a waste of time. A highly mature coping skill lol


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[andrewket]

I agree we may see a delivery button report before seeing Red outside the plant, but I do not consider the 'drive bys' a waste of time. At least it gets me off the Forum for a while, and this is good.:biggrin:

Fair enough. Too bad there isn't a good place for a webcam near the track.

 

[miamimd]

And another day goes by and no clue about my REDDDDDD!!!!

Third week of March 2013 here we go..Good news I am starting to get the Premium carpet Floor mats one section at a time starting with the frunk set. I guess I will be sleeping tonight on my mat. LOL

 

[xhawk101]

In Miami today going to pay homage to the new red on Lincoln rd


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[miamimd]

In Miami today going to pay homage to the new red on Lincoln rd


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I will see you there for sure.. lol I need my weekly dose

 

[xhawk101]

I will see you there for sure.. lol I need my weekly dose

Cool probably 5.30 or so after eye appt. this will have to be my annual dose!


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[xhawk101]

Ps before the 60 kw release didn't we have more than 2 week notices going out? Shouldn't we have heard by now ....arrrrggggh


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[DrDave]

Fair enough. Too bad there isn't a good place for a webcam near the track.

I have a feeling that webcam would be pretty boring right now :wink:

Curious to see if DLM reports any action from the track.

 

[andrewket]

And another day goes by and no clue about my REDDDDDD!!!!

Third week of March 2013 here we go..Good news I am starting to get the Premium carpet Floor mats one section at a time starting with the frunk set. I guess I will be sleeping tonight on my mat. LOL

I have the complete set, along with a bunch of other accessories and items in my garage. Just waiting...

We've seen scheduled deliveries well into April at this point. One person was told their car would be built the second week of April. Not a good sign.

 

[Doug Martoccia]

So, I thought I'd take a systematic approach and try to logically calculate when my Red Model S will arrive.

Here's what I came up with. Assuming the 1st actual delivery is 15 April, the associated VIN at the current production rate would be about 8607. If Tesla dedicates half of all Model S production to Reds during April and May, and if Tesla experienced a conservative 50% rate of turning reservations into final orders, and if 15% of all Model S cars are Red, then:

The 1st Red Model S would be delivered on 15 April as stated previously.

Reservation #4000 would be VIN 9200 (delivery in late April)
Reservation #8000 would be VIN 9800 (delivery in early May)
Reservation #12000 would be VIN 10400 (delivery mid-May)
Reservation #16000 would be VIN 11000 (delivery late May)
Reservation #20000 would be VIN 11600 (delivery mid-June)

Any tweaks anyone would like to make to these assumptions?

 

[DLM270]

I have a feeling that webcam would be pretty boring right now :wink:

Curious to see if DLM reports any action from the track.

No action of any kind, Red or otherwise on the Tesla Track this afternoon. :crying:

I did receive an email reply from the Tesla DS who is assigned to my order. He stated "we are unsure of exact timing, as the production line has yet to officially begin / “ramp up”, I would set your expectations toward a late April – mid May delivery window for the time being." He went on to say this was a CONSERVATIVE estimate "based upon both your configuration type and projections form the factory team on sequencing and timing for the beautiful new 2013 Red cars."

Looks like it will be April before we see any RED, but I am convinced it will be worth the wait.

 

[andrewket]

No action of any kind, Red or otherwise on the Tesla Track this afternoon. :crying:

I did receive an email reply from the Tesla DS who is assigned to my order. He stated "we are unsure of exact timing, as the production line has yet to officially begin / “ramp up”, I would set your expectations toward a late April – mid May delivery window for the time being." He went on to say this was a CONSERVATIVE estimate "based upon both your configuration type and projections form the factory team on sequencing and timing for the beautiful new 2013 Red cars."

Looks like it will be April before we see any RED, but I am convinced it will be worth the wait.

At least your DS is willing to tell you SOMETHING.