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TSLA Investor Discussions
- Thread starter Fr23shjive
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Just like the EV, Bioplastic (petroleum free...mostly) is catching on: Bioplastic - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
In general I believe we will see the value of EV's go up as gas goes up. I expect even with battery improvements that the TM brand (aka their slew of battery/charging patents and overall manufacturing process and design aesthetics) will continue to appreciate as they are years ahead of their competitors. And even though we are a true global economy, as recession can travel to neighboring countries like the weather, the demand for gas/petrol continues to rise due to it being a monopoly for transportation.
TM will change this. That's why I'm here and most likely why you are reading this.
For me, it's all about driving electric. My lifetime cost of ownership with the Roadster will be FAR more than if I never bought an EV and just kept driving the Prius. But I don't like burning gasoline. I bought the Roadster because at the time it was the only freeway-capable EV I could get. I'd have bought a Model S instead if it had been available.
But for mass-market acceptance of EVs, they'll have to offer value for the price. They'll have to be as nice as a gas car with a similar total lifetime cost of ownership, and gas prices are one part of that equation. After the people who want an EV just because it's electric have been served, $2 gas would probably make EVs very hard to sell. But $2 gas is very unlikely, given the exponentially rising global demand, and the rising cost of extraction of deeper and harder to get at reserves. An economic depression will suppress prices, but when price falls below cost of production, production stops, supply dries up, and then everyone will want an EV. In fact, apart from the total cost-of-fuel equation, the reliability of supply and the convenience of charging at home (vs. gas lines the next time there's a shortage) is a very big point in the EV's favor.
Imagine a Model S is $50K and a gas car of similar quality is $30K but you have to spend 4 hours in line once a week to fuel up the gas car, while you just plug in the electric car at home, which do you buy?
For now, Tesla is in a market segment where cost of fuel is not the major factor in purchasing decisions. By the time Tesla moves into the mass-market segment, EVs will be much more widely accepted, and the uncertainty of both price and supply reliability of gas will be more of a concern. Tesla's principal competitor won't be gas cars, it will be EVs from other manufacturers such as Nissan.
Mycroft
Life happens
Excellent write-up daniel. That and the amazing magical drive train are the reasons I've invested a butt-load of cash in TSLA.
smorgasbord
Active Member
Ah, the good-olde days, eh? :redface:
I remember my family (in NY) being happy we had one odd and one even plate, because in an "emergency" we could fill one and siphon to the other. I don't remember us actually doing that. I also remember arguments about turning off the car while in line. While it was shown that idling wasted more gas (assuming you didn't need to flood the carb in order to start), many people were worried about wear and tear on their starter motors. The lasting effect of this was that small Japanese cars took market share and never looked back. People who had made fun of the Honda CVCC (a claimed 50MPG) as a motorcycle with bodywork suddenly were paying over sticker for small cars.
How soon we forget. How long did it take for big SUVs to become popular?
BTW, does anyone remember whether all letters was considered odd or even?
erha
Member
I got some stocks a while ago at 32.8, and I've been a bit frustrated that I didn't sell at 38. I'm in for the long, but I still like to watch the market and TSLA just for fun. When do you think we'll see the stock set a new all time high and pass 40?
rolosrevenge
Dr. EVS
Oh my GOSH! TSLA is down 2% on NO NEWS! How could this atrocity occur? Why isn't Elon doing anything?
While I don't want gas prices to go up necessarily, when I see a large SUV with extra big tires riding a few extra feet off the ground (getting worse gas milage than the stock SUV), I think "$5 a gallon gas would probably really help that guy appreciate his car". And maybe appreciate EVs a little too.
Totally agree...higher gas prices are a blessing in disguise. Crazy how low us taxes vs Europe too imo.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
As a former off roader and occasional builder of lifted trucks with ridiculous tires I'm waiting for the day I can do one as an EV. Just waiting for the right motor and battery combo to come in at a realistic price point to justify it
gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
Have been getting dirty glares from such folks 'high up' since I've started sporting my OILSTNX plates
He's too busy with some rocket/spacecraft stuff, I believe...
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EvERES22
Member
I had a terrible thought this morning... If something happened to Elon, what would happen to Tesla investments? Does the company have any life insurance policies on its executives and other key people?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
A morbid thought... the 'Hit by a Bus Syndrome'!
A great exec should be grooming the right folks to step in as needed. We had sort of discussed this in the past; as SpaceX (Elon's first love) grows (btw, you can see the amazing Dragon-ISS tango live right now! It's beautiful!) and as the DoE loan requirements (personally w.r.t. Elon) are met and Tesla's production of multiple models hits a steady cadence, he might conceivably give up the Tesla CEO post to JB Straubel or someone else.
Apple has managed such a transition very well.
What I find interesting here is that it's a purely technical analysis of the past behavior of the stock, using market theory, with only passing reference to the upcoming Model S deliveries, and no other mention of the product the company builds or the potential public acceptance of that product. They don't even mention competition from other EV makers in their reasons for shorting the stock.
They expect the stock to obey the theory of how stocks behave, without taking into account the question of underlying growth in the company as it sells cars and brings more models on line in coming years. But maybe that's to be expected since their focus is probably on short-term speculation rather than long term investment in a company whose plan is growth.
Citizen-T
Active Member
That's technicians for you. An awful lot of people trade like this. That's why even if you are a fundamental trader, you need to pay attention to the technicals.
That's really yet to be seen. A technology centric company won't really see degradation due to loss of vision/direction for about 2-3 years because of the time it takes for projects that were already in the pipeline to finish. Until that happens, you don't really see much impact from the new leader's direction.
I personally suspect people like Jobs and Musk are basically irreplaceable. I don't think Apple will remain what it is today. It's so big I don't think it will crumble, but then look at a company like HP that was so dominant and crumbled when it lost it's original innovation based direction.
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