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TSLA Investor Discussions
- Thread starter Fr23shjive
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Check the Wiki (page 1 of the "Delivery Update" thread for an up-to-date full listing of reported deliveries. Made my day …bought another 300 @ 27.81 (day low so far :biggrin.
Model S Delivery Update
The news/updates are positive on deliveries? Any idea why the stock is taking a beating today?
Citizen-T
Active Member
just plowed my entire life savings in. too much technical BS going on. sticking to a rule: under $28 buy.
Fool article seems to be the reason once again with Peterson chiming in!!
http://seekingalpha.com/article/855661-tesla-profit-point?source=TheMotleyFool
http://seekingalpha.com/article/855661-tesla-profit-point?source=TheMotleyFool
Forgotten is the income (it is, isn't it?) from reservations. Model X reservations are now around 1800. Around the start of the quarter they stood around 1200. (Source http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/7535-Model-X-Tally). Each is $40,000. That's an extra $24M in Tesla's bank account this quarter.
Edit: Woah. I just checked and non-Sig Model X reservations have opened up since I last looked. Those are only $5,000. So the above is terribly suspect unless the non-Sig only just opened up.
Edit: Woah. I just checked and non-Sig Model X reservations have opened up since I last looked. Those are only $5,000. So the above is terribly suspect unless the non-Sig only just opened up.
I reserved a non-sig on day 1, $5K at the release.
Edit: Also Tesla does not book deposits as income. They are listed as a liability until the car is delivered.
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bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
Model X Sigs required a $40k deposit. Non-Sigs have always required only a $5k deposit (just like the S).
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Depends, if they don't hit the 500 mark for Q3 then some may see it as a negative indicator.
strider
Active Member
I'm frozen at the moment. Too much macro-economic stuff happening this week to get me to trade. German Supreme Court ruling on the ESM and FOMC meeting. Market could rocket up or tank in the next few days regardless of what Tesla does.
I had a limit order in to buy 50 shares at $25. That order expired while I was out of town. I'm just going to sit tight for the time being and see what happens. If TSLA takes a hit and drops because of Europe, I'll jump in and buy some more. Of course, if that happens, all sorts of stocks will be bargains until things come back, assuming they do, and there's not another global collapse.
As far as the balance sheet calculations I don't recall anyone accounting for the income they will be generating from service center fees and annual maintenance fees
from my Samsung galaxy s3
from my Samsung galaxy s3
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
I like his math, and its fairly useful for projecting what Tesla needs to be profitable.
But he is making some unfounded assumptions and trying too hard with his analysis of what Elon meant about Tesla "breaking even" with 8,000 units.
First, $70k/unit is an assumption that even he admits is probably to the low side. Model S Performance is a bargain compared to the ICE competition, with a lower MSRP and vastly lower operating costs. It's the one price point in the model line that is an unambiguous win for Tesla, so sales seem likely to me to skew in that direction and for larger batteries in general. Obviously the greatest consumer savings come with the smaller batteries, but the barriers to making a sale are far higher.
Personally, I'd figure that the median sale price will be ~$80k. The least sophisticated analysis is 8,000 X $80,000 = $640,000,000 and $640,000,000 X 0.25 = $160,000,000 in gross margin from Model S.
However, he makes a basic mistake at this point in his calculations when he decides to look at R&D+SG&A=$111,000,000/qtr.
The mistake is that there is actual guidance from Tesla regarding R&D+SG&A going forward, and it doesn't track with his assumption. R&D is the big number, accounting for nearly $70 million, and Tesla is projecting that it will fall ~20% going forward into Q3 because Model S is done.
So right away R&D+SG&A=$97,000,000/qtr, which is ~$55million lower annual costs than he is assuming.
The SG&A portion of that is just $36,000,000/qtr which works out to ~$144 million/year. Based on his median sales price Tesla has ~$140million/year in gross margin from Model S (@25% gross margin), while my assumption nets ~$160million. SG&A is what Tesla requires to survive and generate revenue. If you cut R&D to $0 it seems to me that $144million in expenses can be covered by $140-$160 million in revenue, especially when you add in Tesla's other revenue sources.
Musk was adamant that they didn't feel they would need to get outside money to cover operations. He also said they might choose to get outside money for R&D. This is consistent with the view that they are looking much more at SG&A than they are at R&D+SG&A when making that calculation.
smorgasbord
Active Member
I suspect that the R&D people are simply moving onto Model X or Gen III. So, Tesla will still have that expense, just not charged against Model S. Unless there's some significant non-employee/contracted R&D expenses that simply go away.
But hopefully a lot of the R&D expenses on the Model S can be leveraged for the Model X and Gen3. They have been touting the reuse of the skateboard platform for quite sometime now.
Citizen-T
Active Member
And...we don't have to guess because as pointed out above, they have told investors during conference calls to expect R&D to fall off somewhat (though not completely). I don't remember if 20% was the number or not, but you can certainly go look it up rather than thank guesses.
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
R&D is expected to decline 20% in Q3, to be partiality offset by some increase in Model X R&D. From the 2nd Quarter 10-Q:
"As we transition to volume production of Model S, Model S related manufacturing costs, including direct parts, material and labor costs, manufacturing overhead and amortized tooling, and logistics, will be fully reflected in cost of automotive sales during the second half of 2012. As such, Model S related research and development expenses will decline in the third quarter while cost of automotive sales is expected to increase. Selling, general and administrative expenses should continue to rise moderately on a quarterly basis as we continue to increase our vehicle selling and servicing capabilities."
"We have significantly increased our research and development efforts for the Model S in recent quarters, which has resulted in an increase in our research and development expenses. We anticipate that our research and development expenses will decrease by about 20% during the third quarter of 2012 as our Model S manufacturing expenses will be reflected in cost of goods sold rather than in research and development, and as one time Model S development expenses decline. This decrease will be partially offset by additional research and development expenses that we expect to incur in relation to the development of future vehicles, such as Model X. In addition, future equity awards may result in an increase in research and development expenses."
Positive article from "Energy and Capitol"
http://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/whats-next-for-tesla-motors-nasdaq-tsla/2561
http://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/whats-next-for-tesla-motors-nasdaq-tsla/2561
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