TSLA Investor Discussions

[agelston]

I'd caution a bit as the P3366 delivery may be an outlier case for whatever reason. Also, they are still only delivering the 85kWh versions. There may be a good number 60kWh and 40kWh reservation numbers lower than P3366 (incl. myself) who will have to wait till Jan/Feb.

My prediction is that they deliver very close to the upper range of the 2500 - 3500 revised estimate for this year.

An annoucement stating or even just guiding to that number would be enough of a catalyst. Or something about reservation confrimations.

This price increase is going directly to their bottom line, so as long as demand isnt affect its a big postive. Helps get them out of negative gross margins lol.

 

[SteveH]

Completely agree with mulder1231. I'm thrilled that so many people are getting their cars right now and happy for all of them, but I don't know that the current rate or deliveries or any 1 or 2 high numbers in that group necessarily changes the longterm outlook for most people. Trying to keep my expectations in check here.

 

[NigelM]

An annoucement stating or even just guiding to that number would be enough of a catalyst. Or something about reservation confrimations.

Don't expect any announcements or any guidance. It's more than halfway through the quarter.

 

[spatterso911]

It's entirely possible that P3366 is part of the stored in inventory that built up while sigs were being delivered (besides those that were horribly delayed, and Canadian sigs). I expect that to make 3500 cars delivered by December 31, they will have to deliver what is already made quickly which may involve getting P3366 delivered now instead of trying to deliver cars in sequence of reservation.

 

[gregincal]

The other interesting piece of news is that they're planning to send finalize emails to all the current reservation holders by the end of January. It's hard to say exactly what this means, but it certainly implies they're planning on increasing production beyond the 20000/yr (finalize emails are up to 9000 now, so thats an additional 5500 emails in the next two months for US deliveries only). Not sure, but since the stock dipped a bit this morning I increased my stake some. Tesla is confident as always, we'll see if they can deliver the volume now.

 

[v12 to 12v]

The other interesting piece of news is that they're planning to send finalize emails to all the current reservation holders by the end of January. It's hard to say exactly what this means, but it certainly implies they're planning on increasing production beyond the 20000/yr (finalize emails are up to 9000 now, so thats an additional 5500 emails in the next two months for US deliveries only). Not sure, but since the stock dipped a bit this morning I increased my stake some. Tesla is confident as always, we'll see if they can deliver the volume now.

Just announced the price increases go into effect Jan 1. That is probably one of the reasons all the config e-mails are going out now.
New Tesla Model S Pricing Announced For Jan 1, Battery Pack Costs Too

- - - Updated - - -

New Blog too:
Blog | Enthusiasts | Tesla Motors

 

[mitch672]

Just announced the price increases go into effect Jan 1. That is probably one of the reasons all the config e-mails are going out now.
New Tesla Model S Pricing Announced For Jan 1, Battery Pack Costs Too

- - - Updated - - -

New Blog too:
Blog | Enthusiasts | Tesla Motors

That and locking in $5,000 deposits (non-refundable after configuring) and setting up the production schedule to make all similar cars at the same time.

 

[agelston]

Rolled my December 30 Calls into January 35s. Same amount $ postion, but more then double the nominal amount of calls. Holding quite a few now (40).

Also, i'm on the bid for the Jan 14 15 strike puts @1.60. If anyone wants to sell me absurd expensive puts, get on it. You get like a 10% yied on cash or own tesla at 13.40. I just need it for margin purposes as I sell shorter dated puts.

Postion I rolled out of. Thanks Elon!
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/27431/Screen%20Shot%202012-11-29%20at%208.20.34%20AM.png

 

[agelston]

New Seeking Alpha Article.

Buy Tesla Motors For At Least 25% Upside - Seeking Alpha

Expect the comments to be rowdy, as usual.

 

[JRP3]

Another one, from Nick Butcher: Tesla, Up to 11

 

[Ing_Qc]

Here is what Tesla said on facebook this afternoon

Charging North.... Canada, here they come!

I thinks this is the news

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Here is what Tesla said on facebook this afternoon

Charging North.... Canada, here they come!

I thinks this is the news

The real news (to me) is the battery pricing. Not in terms of today's stock price, but in general.

40kWh - $8,000
60kWh - $10,000
85kWh - $12,000

This is a critical announcement for a couple of reasons. First, Tesla is setting themselves up for huge losses if they aren't able to manufacture packs for that price and if demand for battery replacements turns out to be accelerated. Second, (and related) is that Tesla must believe they can manufacture battery packs at that price. They just announced that they will sell a 40kWh pack at $200/kWh and an 85kWh pack at ~$141/kWh. Even looking 8 years out, and even accounting for returns on the cash they get for this, that's still some serious gauntlet throwing right there.

By offering a pathway to a very high level of warranty coverage and service through 8 years, and very attractive battery replacement prices after the 8th year, Tesla is offering well defined, and relatively affordable, peace of mind for the life of the car. That should goose sales and boost service revenue as folks buy their way onto this hyper-extended warranty track. A lot of that revenue should turn out to be gravy that goes directly to Tesla's bottom line.

 

[SteveH]

A TM detractor would be quick to point out that the offering of battery replacements could be a bit of desperation move. Essentially they are cash constrained right now and in order to address that they are willing to make a high risk bet that could bite them later. If too many people take this on and battery prices go up by very much then Tesla could be in trouble 8-9 years from now.

Of course, the other side of that is that if battery prices go up to much then Tesla is probably in trouble anyway so why not take the bet and collect the cash now when you need it.

 

[DaveT]

I was also surprised at the affordability of the battery replacement options. However, I remember Elon Musk saying in an interview that even after 10 years that the battery packs have a decent value as recyclables (at least 10-20% of value). So, I'm guessing that Tesla is counting not only on the falling prices of the batteries but also on the ability to somehow recycle the old batteries (or at least battery materials).

 

[bonnie]

A TM detractor would be quick to point out that the offering of battery replacements could be a bit of desperation move. Essentially they are cash constrained right now and in order to address that they are willing to make a high risk bet that could bite them later. If too many people take this on and battery prices go up by very much then Tesla could be in trouble 8-9 years from now.

Of course, the other side of that is that if battery prices go up to much then Tesla is probably in trouble anyway so why not take the bet and collect the cash now when you need it.

You must know my mother. That would be her reaction. The first time I was invited to speak at a conference, her reaction was, 'My goodness, the company must be in a lot of trouble to be flying you all over the country to get sales!'.

Is there any way Tesla could offer a battery replacement option that wouldn't cause some to go negative?

 

[smorgasbord]

I was also surprised at the affordability of the battery replacement options.

Well, don't forget to factor in that Tesla gets to earn interest on that money for 8 years.

 

[kenliles]

The real news (to me) is the battery pricing....

Tesla is offering well defined, and relatively affordable, peace of mind for the life of the car....

More importantly, with 8 year replacements, the life of the car is now the life of the owner!

- - - Updated - - -

A TM detractor would be quick to point out that the offering of battery replacements could be a bit of desperation move. Essentially they are cash constrained right now and in order to address that they are willing to make a high risk bet that could bite them later. If too many people take this on and battery prices go up by very much then Tesla could be in trouble 8-9 years from now.

It's a good point to make Steve, and those distractors will do just that.... Doesn't sound like a short term thinking company run by Elon Musk though, who runs another one targeting a Mars colony

 

[Norbert]

The real news (to me) is the battery pricing. Not in terms of today's stock price, but in general.

40kWh - $8,000
60kWh - $10,000
85kWh - $12,000

This is a critical announcement for a couple of reasons. First, Tesla is setting themselves up for huge losses if they aren't able to manufacture packs for that price and if demand for battery replacements turns out to be accelerated. Second, (and related) is that Tesla must believe they can manufacture battery packs at that price. They just announced that they will sell a 40kWh pack at $200/kWh and an 85kWh pack at ~$141/kWh. Even looking 8 years out, and even accounting for returns on the cash they get for this, that's still some serious gauntlet throwing right there.

Yes, this seems a very good price from the customer's point of view, even when considering inflation, recycling, and preference for near-term cash. I think it expresses an optimism about battery price development.

A TM detractor would be quick to point out that the offering of battery replacements could be a bit of desperation move. Essentially they are cash constrained right now and in order to address that they are willing to make a high risk bet that could bite them later. If too many people take this on and battery prices go up by very much then Tesla could be in trouble 8-9 years from now.

Of course, the other side of that is that if battery prices go up to much then Tesla is probably in trouble anyway so why not take the bet and collect the cash now when you need it.

I haven't heard claims that battery prices might go up, not even from EV or TM detractors (except maybe JP). So while I'm sure the function of providing near-term cash plays a definite role, I'd see it simply as "optimistic".

 

[dhrivnak]

Is there any way Tesla could offer a battery replacement option that wouldn't cause some to go negative?

I think so, they could offer a battery upgrade for the Roadster. That would show that battery replacements will be available in the future and give people a ball park cost. If their bet was wrong the liability would be limited as there are not that many Roadsters on the road. Right not the only "price" for a Roadster battery is $40,000 which does little to comfort those warry of electric drive.

 

[SteveH]

Lithium price increase predictions:
http://lithiuminvestingnews.com/1727/lithium-prices/
http://www.newworldresource.com/s/AboutLithium.asp

So basically, when you go to sites that tout green energy, then everyone predicts falling prices. When you go to a site that advocates investing in lithium, everyone predicts rising prices. Shockingly everyone believes that whatever benefits them the most is going to come true. I really have a hard time finding a consensus.