TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[bdy0627]

$TSLA my biggest trade ever
made an absolute killing of the highest order
sorry Steve Eisman

Let's get through the CC!

 

[corduroy]

Well, I did my part for the cause. Holding strong on my long position and just pulled the trigger on my Model 3 order! After 10 years of wanting a Tesla, it's finally happening!

 

[bdy0627]

Did they just delay the Model Y for another year to mid 2021? Imho, they said in about 2 years, when the articles regarding chinese factory came out.

That's your big takeaway from this report???

 

[RobStark]

That's only Chinese production and has nothing to do with US production. I don't know where they plan on building US Model Y, but it won't be China.

Realistically, if Model Y is revealed in March 2019, I wouldn't expect to see production until late 2020 or 2021.

More so than Europe demand for Model Y in China will exceed that of Model 3.

My guess is that they end up producing 300k MY and 200k M3 in China for the Asian market.

I expect an announcement for another US GF soon on top of the European GF.

Model 3 and Model Y priced cars need to be produced on the continent where they are sold, long term,for them to be profitable.

 

[Jayjs20]

Here's my big takeaway from this report

Cash outflow from operating activities in Q2 2018 was $130 million, which was significantly better than outflows of $398 mill
ion in Q1

 

[schonelucht]

Shareholder letter is positive on the whole. Now we wait for the conference call. Hopefully Elon acts more or less normal.

 

[YasB]

That's your big takeaway from this report???

It's one of them, yes. I never doubted, that Tesla has the chance to be profitable in Q3 or Q4. I am in doubt regarding the speed of their future expansion, so this seemed interesting to me. You know, some people were crazy enough to model 2020 with 700 or 800k cars sold ...

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

Stuff missing from the Q2 letter:

• July deliveries
• Model Y
• Semi
• Autopilot / Full-self driving
• Anything specific for solar roof (production targets, # produced, etc.)

 

[ZsoZso]

now, lets see how the short-bears will spin this one !

- Biggest loss ever ? Check!
- Decreasing reservation deposits => demand problem!
- GF3 financed from local debt => $TSLAQ going bankwupt!
- Tesla energy income dropped compared to Q1 => now valued LESS than ZERO

Did I miss anything ?

 

[YasB]

Stuff missing from the Q2 letter:

• July deliveries
• Model Y
• Semi
• Autopilot / Full-self driving
• Anything specific for solar roof (production targets, # produced, etc.)

Hush! Let them celebrate.

 

[jhm]

In July 2018, Model 3 not only had the #1 market share position in its segment in the US, it outsold all other mid-sized premium sedans combined, accounting for 52% of the segment overall. The popularity of Model 3 is a true testament to the product. Based on trade-ins that we’ve received so far, we can see that the total addressable market for Model 3 is much larger than mid-sized premium sedans. We are drawing customers from many other segments, including non-premiums sedans and hatchbacks.

As I was saying, the Model 3 is drawing share from beyond the premium mid-sized sedan segment.

 

[Mkorpal]

Here's my big takeaway from this report

Cash was the only number I cared about. Pretty much kills the bankruptcy narritive.

 

[Causalien]

Whilst I advice refraining from celebrating too early as we've all seen the stock jump up AH for er and subsequently dump next morning in normal trading.

Con-fuking-gratulation longs. As IRDM CEO said best. Beyond Q3 lies the valley of milk and honey.

 

[ZachShahan]

Thanks for the tip here —

Tesla Model 3 Sales Skyrocket, US Toyota Camry & Prius Sales Plummet — Coincidence? | CleanTechnica

 

[Runarbt]

Stuff missing from the Q2 letter:

• July deliveries
• Model Y
• Semi
• Autopilot / Full-self driving
• Anything specific for solar roof (production targets, # produced, etc.)

Well.. July is in Q3 so do not belong in a Q2 letter. Model Y and Semis till years to to, so those shouldnt be in a Q2 letter either imo.

Update on autopilot would have been nice. We have been promised this for some time now. And also solar roof details would have been nice. In the CC maybe?

 

[ggies07]

Now base model 3 at end of this year not sometime next year: "we plan on launching our new Model 3 sedan later this year at a base price of $35,000 that we expect to truly propel electric vehicles into the mainstream." (bold emphasis added)

I missed that in the report and searched for it, but can't find it. What section?

 

[Moderatefan]

Now base model 3 at end of this year not sometime next year: "we plan on launching our new Model 3 sedan later this year at a base price of $35,000 that we expect to truly propel electric vehicles into the mainstream." (bold emphasis added)

This is not necessarily super-positive sign.

I think it also means that:
The chunk of SR orders is somewhat larger assuming that current delivery estimates hold and their forecasted Q3 production estimates 50-55k or 4.1k-4.5k/week is matching their expectations. I thought we'd be looking at 5k+ average (in the end of Q2) based on that target reached in Q2.
I.e. we're probably looking at 80-90k deliveries of M3 in the period that ends with processing US/Canada LR reservations, which means the share of SR waiters in U.S. is like 55%+. But assuming they can make profit on SR that is probably not too bad.

Btw, anybody noticed a more cautious tone on future production increases: "We then expect to increase
production over the next few quarters beyond 6,000 per week, "
EM said previously 7k by EOY I believe.

 

[ggies07]

The chunk of SR orders is somewhat larger

This should be expected, it's what the company advertised 2 years ago.

 

[Krugerrand]

Shareholder letter is positive on the whole. Now we wait for the conference call. Hopefully Elon acts more or less normal.

He always acts normal. Not his fault his normal doesn’t fit your boring.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I doubt $50,000 M3 sales is biting into Camry much. Camry average selling price is something like $24,000.

When the $35,000 version starts shipping it is probably going to impact sales of Camry and Accord.

I had my first "Is that the new Tesla?" interaction today, the guy was driving an older (but not ancient) Accord. He assumed it was starting at 40k, he got even more interested after I told him that although mine was almost 60k w/ options after TT&L that the cheaper one will actually start at 35k. Now whether or not enough of the Camry / Accord market feels the same way to show up on a sales graph, only time will tell, but it certainly is exciting some of them! As we parted ways he made some comment to the effect of these cars are the future and that he is excited for it.