JRP3
Hyperactive Member
The media survives on ad revenue, which comes from those who Tesla is disrupting. Even outside of Tesla it's no secret that negative news sells. "If it bleeds it leads"
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Automotive spending just isn't that high of a percentage of ad spending:
It makes far more sense to fight over clicks amongst themselves than to team up to save 12,5% of total ad spending. Aka, an editorial direction decision that increases your clicks by more than 12,5% but sacrifices auto ad spending entirely is worth it to you. Getting clicks on the story matters most.
Note that Tesla does plan to advertise in the future, once they're a larger fraction of the market. They just don't at present. Ad spending for non-Tesla cars, which still heavily dominate the market, will remain strong until the point that they no longer heavily dominate, wherein Tesla spending increases.
There is a fair amount of research (some of which has been posted to this thread before) that shows that companies that buy ads get more favorable media coverage from the publications that are taking their money. Car companies other than Tesla are an enormous source of advertising revenue (second highest according to the source you posted) and Tesla spends no money on advertising so that creates a financial incentive for publications to skew negative.
It's also a mistake to underestimate how effective the short PR syndicate has been. They act as a $10 billion market cap PR firm whose sole function is to inflict as much damage as possible on Tesla. If you look at any major Tesla-oriented reporter’s Twitter account they are constantly flooded with negative content from short sellers. That propaganda campaign likely has a significant affect as short sellers' themes of the day often quickly turn into the news of the day for reporters looking for the next story (Linette Lopez, for example, openly states that hedge funds are a source for many of her stories, which are 100% negative, and she seems very chummy with Jim Chanos).
In addition, my Apple news feed is filled with negative stories I am sure almost no humans read, like the 8th or 10th press release from "the Klein law firm" about some Tesla class action they've filed. On the other hand, many positive Tesla stories from prominent publications never make it on the feed even though they pop up on Google searches. I understand there are services that optimize content on Apple news feeds (like firms that optimize Google search results). While "if it bleeds it leads" is a time honored tradition in journalism, it is also possible (and in my view likely) that hedge funds or other interests are gaming the system and making negative articles appear more popular than they are (bots that generate clicks, for example). If that wasn't detected by advertisers then it would also tend to increase revenue for publications to publish negative stories, and create a negative feedback loop that encourages reporters and headline writers to skew negative.
I do think 3 or 4 strong cash flow positive and profitable quarters will defuse the FUD somewhat, but it's not going away any time soon. I think it will be less noticeable when the short sellers eventually get wiped out although there are plenty of other interests who will continue to generate anti-Tesla FUD, which clearly influences what reporters write.
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of course it is possible and it is done. Shorts even have their "shorts army". Big guys have information they can collect from gov agencies, or insides in Tesla's management.
The reason why you don't hear anything about, because there is nothing to "report". there are no skeletons in Tesla's closet. IF there were you would see them displayed, every bone would be multiples times shown, dissected and "multiplied" in many many stories.
Stock doesn't have direct relation to company performance. Stock price is a product of buyers "expectations", i.e. speculation on some future demand growth for this company's stock, and of course current demand/supply ratio. To play on Tesla's table you need proper access to the info about TSLA table: Current puts, calls distribution, actual number of real shares "in the game", etc.
Demand for TSLA is weak because of the lack of interest from big investors (see bad rating), supply is weak because only hardcore longs remain and they don't sell. Hence what you see is short traffic. They "earn" each other money. More of it it looks very much so that somebody is ready to spend regularly serious money to keep TSLA very volatile.
All dramatic "drops" of TSLA are the result of individual high volume sells which were eating all buys up to bottom.
I believe it happens always when it is "dramatic", i.e. when an individual sell can make 5% or more of price drop. Which of course can be reported in MM outlets.
P.S. about MM. MM lives on ad revenue. And paid articles. Paid articles can be of two types: placed article written by some "experts" (there was a wave of negative SpaceX articles in all major MM few months ago), or paid "research" article, where people provide "material" and money and MM journalist does the writing. The second type is more prevalent, but not "popularized".
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Again, negativity brings clicks. Coupled with serving the second largest advertising client it's hard not to see why Tesla is constantly under attack from the media.
Ratings (today's valuation):
Now you now where theirs mounts is!
I understand that they hate TSLA and I know why...but dude look at all these misses.
Just wondering what kind of mind would use such analysis.
Now you now where theirs mounts is!
I understand that they hate TSLA and I know why...but dude look at all these misses.
Just wondering what kind of mind would use such analysis.
cheshire cat
Member
Quite pleased they are on the bus but going in the wrong direction, how long for I wonder ?
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
In entirely, 100% unrelated news, here are some of the largest Tesla short positions in the derivatives space, via PUT options:
TSLA 13F Hedge Fund and Asset Management Owners
Code:
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP (PUT) 13,235,400 $4,539,081,000
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA (PUT) 1,856,000 $636,515,000
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC (PUT) 1,790,600 $614,086,000
BANK OF AMERICA CORP (PUT) 1,538,100 $527,491,000
BARCLAYS PLC (PUT) 1,514,444 $519,378,000
UBS AG (PUT) 1,302,400 $446,658,000
CITIGROUP INC (PUT) 1,175,100 $403,000,000
MORGAN STANLEY (long) 1,030,353 $353,358,000
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC (long) 974,313 $334,141,000(Second column is shares-equivalent position size, i.e. 100x options contracts.)
Beyond a libertarian trading firm linked to the Kochs, most of the major investment banks appear to be primarily short Tesla as well. (Some have call options as well, but it's much lower exposure.)
Small world!
BTW., this heavy PUT options short exposure is very likely not market maker exposure which would be delta hedged, because the PUT/CALL ratio is still above 2:1, so market maker exposure should be on the PUT written side, i.e. long exposure.
I.e. I think this is genuine prop trading short exposure of these major investment banks, which isn't hedged.
These same investment banks issue Tesla ratings as well, which are totally, 100% independent of their Tesla short positions.
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sundaymorning
Active Member
Make no mistake about it, this will dramatically increase sales. Tesla has upped the standard for midsize luxuries, again.
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP - $4.5 billion gamble against $TSLA, seriously! That's some big money. I wonder if they're acting as a front-man to a number of nefarious concerns??
Wonder what the strikes and expiration dates are, the Theta decay must sting.
Once the banks that are short realize the puts are going to expire worthless they'll switch to calls, where do you think their price targets will move to then?
Why? You’ll just move the goal post to something else.
I just googled "safest cars" and looked at the top hits. None of them included Teslas on their list. What's up with that?
Smokey4141
Banned
You're welcome to make of the article what you will...
Your money, your choice...
I just offered it up as a way of answering your questions... If you don't like the answers, that's on you...
bdy0627
Active Member
It's remarkable that these institutions are able to remain so unbiased in their bearish views of Tesla.In entirely, 100% unrelated news, here are some of the largest Tesla short positions in the derivatives space, via PUT options:
TSLA 13F Hedge Fund and Asset Management Owners
Code:SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP (PUT) 13,235,400 $4,539,081,000 ROYAL BANK OF CANADA (PUT) 1,856,000 $636,515,000 GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC (PUT) 1,790,600 $614,086,000 BANK OF AMERICA CORP (PUT) 1,538,100 $527,491,000 BARCLAYS PLC (PUT) 1,514,444 $519,378,000 UBS AG (PUT) 1,302,400 $446,658,000 CITIGROUP INC (PUT) 1,175,100 $403,000,000 MORGAN STANLEY (long) 1,030,353 $353,358,000 GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC (long) 974,313 $334,141,000
(Second column is shares-equivalent position size, i.e. 100x options contracts.)
Beyond a libertarian trading firm linked to the Kochs, most of the major investment banks appear to be primarily short Tesla as well. (Some have call options as well, but it's much lower exposure.)
Small world!
BTW., this heavy PUT options short exposure is very likely not market maker exposure which would be delta hedged, because the PUT/CALL ratio is still above 2:1, so market maker exposure should be on the PUT written side, i.e. long exposure.
I.e. I think this is genuine prop trading short exposure of these major investment banks, which isn't hedged.
These same investment banks issue Tesla ratings as well, which are totally, 100% independent of their Tesla short positions.
A lot of the lists require IIHS top pick rating along with NHTSA 5 star. The partial offset test on S/X has been an issue, possibly due to the the front corner on the pack catching the obstacle along with the low CG that tend to cause the car to continue forward vs spinning off the obstacle (and potentially into traffic) like other cars (they bounce off/ rotate around the post).
The 3 has specific design features to fair better.
sundaymorning
Active Member
I hope this motivates our government to act quickly, before it’s too late. If we go past a certain threshold, then there’s no coming back.
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