TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ZachShahan]

Where was the pressure coming from?

Various commenters (well, numerous commenters), colleagues (real people, behind the scenes), and just in the overall media and social media atmosphere. [Edit: Also, I was on some expert conference calls with "big shots" from auto, finance, major analyst firms, etc. Man, these people had sucked up the CNBC/Bob Lutz narratives and didn't have a problem sharing their professional opinions on these matters. I'm sure when my turn came around to talk many of them rolled their eyes or shrunk in their seats as I tried to offer useful perspective and opinions. But it's a little hard still to leave such meetings and not wonder, "Am I really correct? Am I really not naive and missing something the others see?" But then 2 seconds pass and I remember the fundamental points and history.]

And you know all the terms: cult, fanboy, Tesla PR, funded by Tesla, Elon worshiper, biased reporter, stupid new media blogger, Kool-Aid drinker, fake journalist, you're going to look very bad, you'll look great for your independence and further down the road if you are critical of Tesla/Elon, your site has too good of a reputation to burn it like this, you're risking the whole site's reputation, you're alienating non-fanboys, people are sick of the Tesla hype, etc., etc.

It has a way of creating a clear narrative and message that is hard to step out of objectively and then decide to stand firm on your understanding of the company and Elon's statements. Of course, I didn't have an inclination to buy into these arguments because I'd been covering Tesla since the Broder days, have tried to understand the company well, and have seen the cycle of attacks repeat themselves a few times. But the pressure was more palpable than ever and very easy to see others shift their framing or just go along with the prevailing critical narrative.

Anyway ... planning a piece for tomorrow that addresses some of the "impossible" things Tesla has achieved. Any specific quotes of notable people saying certain Tesla goals were impossible would be appreciated.

 

[ZachShahan]

There is an important lesson we need to learn here to change the media narrative.

The liberal media understands the dire nature of Climate Change but doesn't think of Tesla as a solution to it. We need to keep pounding on this connection so that the liberal media stops spreading anti-Tesla FUD. I'm going to start calling all anti-Tesla fudsters climate change deniers to drive home the point (on twitter).

You have to love that this was by far Elon's most popular tweet in recent history: Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[CorneliusXX]

The EV race isn’t even close in the Metherlands, Tesla continues to dominate

I knew they had a tolerant drug policy but changing their name seems a little overboard.

 

[Fact Checking]

I'm going to start calling all anti-Tesla fudsters climate change deniers to drive home the point (on twitter).

BTW., considering facts like this:

... is it "too soon" to call global warming perpetrators who are profiting from it, and their global warming denier political allies "co-conspirators to mass murder"?

Had other unprecedented European heat waves since 2003: 2010 in Russia, and this year the heat wave in the Scandinavian broke records going back hundreds of years.

And that's less than 10% of the world population, with good infrastructure and top health care...

 

[Fact Checking]

I’d also love to know who’s muzzling Munro.

A persistent rumor is UBS: one of the firms that apparently paid Munro to perform the Model 3 tear-down, and who apparently only wanted the results to become public if it was unfavorable to Tesla.

Here's what Munro said about this:

UPDATE: Munro Threatened With Lawsuit For Tesla Model 3 Teardown

"Update: heard back from Sandy Munro by email. He said he’s under threat of being sued— not from Tesla, nor from any bulls or bears. It’s from a corporation that’s unnamed for now. He’d signed a contract with them that is limiting his ability to do press. h/t"​

BTW., UBS might not be an openly "Tesla bear" that Munro would recognize as such, but they are quite clearly Tesla short from what I can see ...

Also, in 100% unrelated news:

Insane UBS Bias On Tesla — UBS Analyst Recommended Selling $TSLA 18 Times In 2 Years, Recommended Buying $GM 35 Times In 7 Years | CleanTechnica

Tesla’s $35,000 base Model 3 will be a money losing car, says UBS after teardown

"UBS claims Tesla’s battery cost is $178 per kWh after tearing down a Model 3 Long Range."​

The Munro tear-down actually listed LR at $150/kWh:

See the second line in Sandy Munro's teardown results table.

(Dear SEC, wouldn't such blatantly bad faith distortion of the flow of information about public companies by a major investment bank be ... illegal market manipulation and securities fraud? Oh, you mean UBS is short Tesla and thus has to be protected and enriched by the SEC? Gotcha! )

And the rumors/speculation could be wrong, of course.

 

[Electroman]

Various commenters (well, numerous commenters), colleagues (real people, behind the scenes), and just in the overall media and social media atmosphere. [Edit: Also, I was on some expert conference calls with "big shots" from auto, finance, major analyst firms, etc. Man, these people had sucked up the CNBC/Bob Lutz narratives and didn't have a problem sharing their professional opinions on these matters. I'm sure when my turn came around to talk many of them rolled their eyes or shrunk in their seats as I tried to offer useful perspective and opinions. But it's a little hard still to leave such meetings and not wonder, "Am I really correct? Am I really not naive and missing something the others see?" But then 2 seconds pass and I remember the fundamental points and history.]

And you know all the terms: cult, fanboy, Tesla PR, funded by Tesla, Elon worshiper, biased reporter, stupid new media blogger, Kool-Aid drinker, fake journalist, you're going to look very bad, you'll look great for your independence and further down the road, your site has too good of a reputation to burn it like this, you're risking the whole site's reputation, you're alienating non-fanboys, people are sick of the Tesla hype, etc., etc.

It has a way of creating a clear narrative and message that is hard to step out of objectively and then decide to stand firm on your understanding of the company and Elon's statements. Of course, I didn't have an inclination to buy into these arguments because I'd been covering Tesla since the Broder days, have tried to understand the company well, and have seen the cycle of attacks repeat themselves a few times. But the pressure was more palpable than ever and very easy to see others shift their framing or just go along with the prevailing critical narrative.

Anyway ... planning a piece for tomorrow that addresses some of the "impossible" things Tesla has achieved. Any specific quotes of notable people saying certain Tesla goals were impossible would be appreciated.

Zach - Keep up the good work.

You should consider writing an article or blog just on what you said in that post, with specific details and verbatim comments. Will be a great eye opener.

 

[MXWing]

I cannot prove the claim but I read on Reddit that Tesla took down the Oct 15th notice because they are already tapped out for end of year.

If so, I wonder if Tesla should just crank out some limited edition Model 3 that IS guaranteed.

P+ with packaged EAP and FSD. Maybe actually has a spoiler and a badge.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Have been dramatic changes in what insurance companies are willing to cover as well, iirc.

Talk to any insurance company exec — Republicans included — and they'll give you a good sense of how bad it already is.

Allstate is now running commercials specifically using climate change as a reason to buy their insurance.

 

[skybluecgreen]

Talking about the market, I saw a sudden 2% decrease in IV in almost all strikes & expiration dates on Friday. I've not been tracking IV closely - is this an anomaly or does this kind of thing happen often ?

So, even though TSLA went up by 2.6%, many of the call options I track went up only by 3 to 6% instead of the usual 5 to 10%. Infact many strikes are down compared to 10/10 when TSLA was $2 less.

Tell me about it (holding Feb '19 380 calls.) Tesla's bounce Friday was not strong relative to other recently beaten down leaders. Seems like it is having trouble recovering as easily as it has after other recent drops. Options reflecting it being stuck in the mud down here. Hopefully it can show more relative strength next week as we close in on Q3 earnings.

 

[FS_FRA]

China has several giga scale battery factories and is building more. They are on-board with mitigating climate change. It's just the Germans who have their heads in the sand.

I have to object to that! Whilst us Germans are certainly faltering in required climate change initiatives apportioned to the automotive industry, had it not been for the “Energiewende” (“energy change”) a couple of decades ago, solar PV would not be where it is today globally.
Germany produced 38% of its electricity through renewable energy sources in 2017! This is 15% more than 2016. In fact there are days when 100% of our electricity is produced from renewable sources (think: Sunny, windy Sunday when industrial demand is low). So yeah, head in sand......:facepalm:

 

[Mobius484]

I would like to also thank Zach for the above. I have been a long time lurker here, and more involved over last two years of stock and car ownership. I’ve followed this amazing space x and Tesla story for years and become ever more ratchet into the mission. I became a supporting member recently and have been on twitter to support the effort for truth. I researched seeking alpha and this forum prior to purchasing my model S and I have never regretted the journey. After 40,000 miles, I can say I like you all better than old Montana skeptic, and other dookie heads on seeking alpha. The truth is good! It’s good to have some positive energy flowing here. Thanks for this. Have a good night

Edit for “space x and Tesla”

 

[NicoV]

The EV race isn’t even close in the Metherlands, Tesla continues to dominate.

Tesla Scores Record Month In The Netherlands, Model S & Model X Both #1 In Class | CleanTechnica

From the article “Of course, maybe the higher taxation of expensive BEVs next year has something to do with it. … ”

This is not a ‘maybe’, but certain: The tax scheme change in the Netherlands mainly affects Tesla (because linked to a high purchase price). Anyone considering buying a Tesla as a new company car over the next year will pull their purchase into 2018. The tax change eliminates a very affordable situation for Dutch company car owners, so expect the sale of Model S and X to drop like a rock in Januari.
IIRC, the purchase price limit for the new tax schem is 50K, so as of Januari, expect record sales of Model 3’s without software options (Model 3’s for which the software options will be promptly bought as soon as the invoice for the car is received)

 

[Tslynk67]

While the PITA person was not too well informed about BEVs, all these dead cows that we produce is a part of the climate change problem:

Huge reduction in meat-eating ‘essential’ to avoid climate breakdown

PS. Due to my Italian wife we eat mostly pescetarian, with about 1/3 kg (beef/chicken) meat per person per week.

I don't want to get drawn into the vegan ideology wars again, but meat eating is not bad, but some farming practices are. Pasturing ruminants is net beneficial to carbon sequestration and should be encouraged. Much of the planet's surface is not suitable for crop growth either, and the harm that mono-culture farming does to the environment is enormous.

And don't forget the epidemic of metabolic syndrome currently sweeping the planet, especially those following a standard America diet model - this is a recent phenomenon and a direct result of sugar, flour and industrial seed-oil consumption, not from meat.

Don't be drawn-in to FUD headlines, like Tesla, research the facts.

 

[Tslynk67]

Okay, new topic then: obviously the world is flat, as we experience it; no matter how high you get, the horizon continues to look flat. Indeed, the reason Antarctica is a "continent", unlike the arctic, is because while the arctic is in the centre, the antarctic makes up the rim of the Earth and its giant wall of ice prevents the oceans from flowing off. Gravity is of course not real (who could believe in such a "space-bending" phantom force?); the Earth accelerates upwards at 9,8 meters per second. Eclipses are of course an invisible "anti-moon" crossing in front of the moon or sun. GPS signals are faked by governments (which are of course trying to conceal the truth, just like when they faked the moon landing) to make airplane pilots think they're flying around a sphere. One of the main motives for governments faking a spherical Earth is that it's a lot cheaper to fake a space programme than to actually implement one, so by faking a space programme, they can pocket the remaining money or redirect it to secret projects.

Discuss.

Simple response to this is why, therefore, can't you see Mount Everest, as it's the tallest thing on the planet - should be visible from everywhere as long as it's not occluded but other things? After all, we can, for instance, the moon, which is substantially further away, never mind distant galaxies. Or are these projections from a giant lamp that the NASA switches on every night?

 

[Compton]

Discussion of the flat earth nonsense draws the overall IQ level so pathetically low that no investing-related discussion can be taken seriously anymore. Please stop and please say that the first post about the topic was a joke.

Otherwise we can start discussing whether the reptilians are behind the SP drop.

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

I am dying to buy some oom options on this stock as a major lotto ticket. The June 2019 400 is going for 11 bucks. That's like 25x leverage if it climbs over 400. June goes out long enough to have 3 profitable quarters including model y reveal as well as puts to bed the debt maturity.

I feel like there's very little that needs to happen to make it clearly obvious that we should be at all time high. How could optimism ever be higher than if this company achieves a stable positive cash flow and all the competition has demonstrated such feeble efforts?

Valuation wise the dominant market position and embedded software margin and vertical integration suggests industry leading profit margins, perhaps long term 10%, and the extended growth trajectory then allowing multiples of 3 or 4 times price to sales. That's 100-150b market cap being fairly obviously possible at some point within a year.

I know everyone's a bull here, but the odds seem so strikingly good right now. I'm counting my money already. Wheres trendtrader to calm me down?

 

[NicoV]

BTW., considering facts like this:

... is it "too soon" to call global warming perpetrators who are profiting from it, and their global warming denier political allies "co-conspirators to mass murder"?

Had other unprecedented European heat waves since 2003: 2010 in Russia, and this year the heat wave in the Scandinavian broke records going back hundreds of years.

And that's less than 10% of the world population, with good infrastructure and top health care...

The high number of deaths was caused by unpreparedness, mainly in retirement homes. As we get more of these summers, the personnel in the retirement homes are more alert and proactive: making sure that seniors drink enough, installing airco etc. The risk is now mainly with senior citizens that still live on their own.

 

[cheshire cat]

What are you going to do with the hides? Throw them away? And then use other resources to replace leather? Like, that’s going to help the environment.

Completely agree, I have no problem with leather, I was just trying to show that because the is no shortage of beef (in the US ) QED: there is no shortage of leather( worldwide)

 

[cheshire cat]

YES !!!

Remember when we talk about environment, its not just the carbon.

People apparently don't realize, leather processing causes incredible environmental destruction. When I drive past the leather treatment factories in India, I can smell them from miles away. The degradation of soil & water is difficult to describe.

There is a reason most of the leather tanning is done in countries with no rules or very lax enforcement because of corruption, like India.

Yes years ago it was Oak bark which was used, now it's chrome salts? And god knows what else

 

[cheshire cat]

Various commenters (well, numerous commenters), colleagues (real people, behind the scenes), and just in the overall media and social media atmosphere. [Edit: Also, I was on some expert conference calls with "big shots" from auto, finance, major analyst firms, etc. Man, these people had sucked up the CNBC/Bob Lutz narratives and didn't have a problem sharing their professional opinions on these matters. I'm sure when my turn came around to talk many of them rolled their eyes or shrunk in their seats as I tried to offer useful perspective and opinions. But it's a little hard still to leave such meetings and not wonder, "Am I really correct? Am I really not naive and missing something the others see?" But then 2 seconds pass and I remember the fundamental points and history.]

And you know all the terms: cult, fanboy, Tesla PR, funded by Tesla, Elon worshiper, biased reporter, stupid new media blogger, Kool-Aid drinker, fake journalist, you're going to look very bad, you'll look great for your independence and further down the road if you are critical of Tesla/Elon, your site has too good of a reputation to burn it like this, you're risking the whole site's reputation, you're alienating non-fanboys, people are sick of the Tesla hype, etc., etc.

It has a way of creating a clear narrative and message that is hard to step out of objectively and then decide to stand firm on your understanding of the company and Elon's statements. Of course, I didn't have an inclination to buy into these arguments because I'd been covering Tesla since the Broder days, have tried to understand the company well, and have seen the cycle of attacks repeat themselves a few times. But the pressure was more palpable than ever and very easy to see others shift their framing or just go along with the prevailing critical narrative.

Anyway ... planning a piece for tomorrow that addresses some of the "impossible" things Tesla has achieved. Any specific quotes of notable people saying certain Tesla goals were impossible would be appreciated.

Remember Galileo was right