TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[bdy0627]

I used the last of my cash to close as many of my naked puts as I could as the stock was approaching the low of the day. This pretty much guarantees that the stock will go straight up from here, maximizing my loss. I stopped the drop. You are all welcome!

You're not the only one. I've got similar power to manipulate this stock. It often moves directly in the opposite direction of my trades.

 

[bdy0627]

Well said. In addition, they are always ex post. They are not, nor do the pretend to be predictive. Many here based on facts, science and logic, attempt to predict the future value of the stock, not its actual price. I use goose entrails and an ombic chant to predict when to buy.

I'm at the point where I may be interested in learning more about using goose entrails and chants to try to predict this stock. Can't imagine they wouldn't provide better guidance than what I've been doing!

 

[Intl Professor]

Tesla is just months from a total collapse, says hedge-fund manager

John Thompson "Hedge Fund Manager" has $25M Assets Under Management.

T Rowe Price, major TSLA investor, has ~ $1 Trillion Assets Under Management.

Our family oriented wealth manager has $158,000,000 under management! Doesn't like Tesla either, but under orders not to sell it!!

 

[Intl Professor]

I'm at the point where I may be interested in learning more about using goose entrails and chants to try to predict this stock. Can't imagine they wouldn't provide better guidance than what I've been doing!

The real secret to our sauce is lack of income but I did buy early for most of our holdings. I semi-retired in 2001, finally no more earned income in 2008. Our average purchase price, $79 since 2010 despite last purchases at $340 and $311. Not as good as Curt Renz's; hats off to him!

 

[Richard007]

Just bought 20 more shares at $262.97. Maybe $250 was low.

 

[tlo]

I've just initiated a transfer of more funds into my brokerage account. Wish it could arrive sooner. Converted a bunch of common stock to 2019 LEAPS.

I'm 80% certain that $252 was the bottom, supported by 200 week MA and 50 month MA.

 

[Curt Renz]

I bought a significant number of Tesla shares a few minutes ago to add to my position. I didn't catch the bottom, but the $12 hike upward during the last hour may indicate that the storm has passed.

 

[Richgoogol]

I've never been so happy on a -5% day..

 

[deonb]

"The decline is continuing Wednesday, with Tesla's 5.30% notes down to a price of $87.75, which results in a yield to maturity of 7.49%. "

Uhh.. Where do I get me some of these? (Are these exchange traded?)

 

[madodel]

Last night, I took a deeper dive into Tesla's cash position and upcoming debt coming due.

The article is not accurate.

I'm pretty sure they aren't going for accuracy.

 

[BornToFly]

I'm tempted to turn half my shares into LEAPS now, but I'm too scared.... I need bigger balls....

 

[BornToFly]

We need a tweet from Elon that the ramp is going great now. We are nowhere near ER time, so he could do it....

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

need to leave the house soon, but, worth keeping in mind there are institutional investors looking at Tesla's market cap currently at $43 billion, thinking, it's only once every few years you get an opening like this anywhere in the market. contrary to the propaganda campaign style pumping of the "Cult of Elon" narrative, Tesla is very heavily owned by institutional investors.

of course, I'm not leaving the house without another buy order entered at $252.80... last buy was $262 and change.

update: markets rebounding some, moved order up 50 cents and it executed. see you all later.

Tesla market cap was $18B in Feb '16, not that long ago. Not sure if that was fully diluted or based on then current number of shares. I thought that was ridiculously cheap, but there isn't much difference in my mind between $43B and $56B

 

[MP3Mike]

We need a tweet from Elon that the ramp is going great now. We are nowhere near ER time, so he could do it....

Well, they will release production numbers in 5-6 days... My guess is that we will find out then.

 

[aznt1217]

Well, they will release production numbers in 5-6 days... My guess is that we will find out then.

Correct and they literally can't tweet out. It's a quiet period

 

[X Yes?]

Perfect storm, it seems, to drop sentiment through the floor. But nothing really has changed in the past few weeks with Tesla other than that the ramp now looks better than it did.

Just a likely tough delivery report and "earnings report". And, an accident investigation with high stakes for Tesal's signature technology. And Moody's report that shuts off future bond offerings. And a cratered stock price that makes raising needed capital, very difficult.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I'm likely going to finally back the truck up in a big way if we hit the 230s. Regardless of what I've been posting, actually seeing TSLA at 250 feels surreal.

250 to 350 is like 171 to 240
those are current prices compared to local maximums, now and feb '16
Of course, analogues don't always work

For what is worth, I was mightily tempted to buy at low 250s today...

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Based on the M3 numbers I've seen, I think Tesla will achieve 2500/wk production by end of 1Q. A lot of people look at the ramp as linear, and it's not. Because Tesla is close to the steepest part of the ramp curve, going from 2000/wk to 2500/wk doesn't take that long. Bloomberg calculator is not a useful indicator during this time as they use averaging. The rate of change is too fast for the calculator to be predictive of the current production rate. I may eat my words, but I think we're much closer to target than it would appear.

it's not exponential, it's not linear ramp, it stopped last few days
VIN assignments:


Weekly still looks good

 

[dc_h]

Rumor is they're shutting down the line Thursday, re-starting next Tuesday. Source seems to be an employee, don't know if he's reliable.

Charlie on Twitter

Would be good timing. Finish Q1 strong on production and make line changes for next step from 2000+ on way to 5000 a week. The February 20-24 downtime seemed critical to get on path to 2000, which seems like what they’ve been doing the last two weeks. If they can get past 3000 a week in April this will be good news.
I’m also sure there’s been overtime in March and the line guys can use a break.

 

[Richgoogol]

Not out of the woods yet?