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Thanks. What do you make of this data?
I'd love to know what level of production they can sustain and gradually increase, as opposed to one-time burst speed. I'm afraid the only reliable way to get this info is to wait till the end of Q2 and see how many cars were delivered/produced - neither Bloomberg's model nor Elon's anecdotes seem to give an accurate picture of current production. Does your research give any additional clues on the sustainable rate?
Waiting4M3
Active Member
The Grohmann line is for Gigafactory, should not cause a Fremont car production line shutdown. Also the Grohmann line is planned to be installed in parallel to 3 other existing semi-auto battery module lines, so may not require shutdown of those lines either.
There was no context given as to which line was being discussed; I presumed (perhaps incorrectly) Gigafactory rather than Fremont.
Given that the Grohmann line is to replace zones 1 and 2 (transporting/placing parts) of pack assembly, I can't imagine how it can be truly "in parallel"; it must interface with zones 3 and 4. Again, correct me if I'm wrong.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
I don't know about sustained rate. I think they spent the whole 3 months tweaking the line, so there is no such thing as a sustained rate.
As for few day bursts, I am of two minds:
- More pessimistic view is that they've run at 1200-2000 a week, but on a daily level.
- But looking at VINs in December vs. Q1, makes me consider that they actually crossed 2000, and may have approached 2500 on their best day
I stick with pessimistic view, it's safer with TSLA and it hurts less
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Yes we're discussing zone 2 of the battery module line at GGF. My understanding is that there are 4 parallel lines that was the old design and running in semi-auto mode, and one of them will be converted to be the Grohmann line.
From what I've seen in past videos, the interface is likely robotic carts shuttling modules from/to zone 3, so I imagine building a new line (or converting one of the 4 existing lines to Grohmann) in zone 2 should cause minimum disruption to those traffic from the existing 3 lines in zone 2.
To extend on that
My understanding:
The 4 original lines were reprogrammed by Tesla to be somewhat functional. Then they changed a line to a different setup and it was faster than the other 3 (4?) put together. I believe that is the semi-autonomous line style.
Thing I typed for initial response...
Stage 1 and 2 are some form of assembly process (bandoliers?). Current method is partly mechanical partly human (semi-autonomous line). Multiple of these lines are what is getting Tesla to 2.5k/wk. The Grohmann line is fully automatic and will do an additional 2,500/wk. Down the road, another auto line will replace the semi-automatic for cost effectiveness.
bdy0627
Active Member
It's looking like shorts aren't done yet. Seems like $252 may get tested again. From what I gather, if that fails, then there will likely be a cascade down quite a bit further. I will most likely add again if it gets near $230.
The negative sentiment is absolutely incredible. It's just old news being recirculated again and now it's being done in mainstream media.
The only way to reverse the trend or at least cauterize it to stop the bleeding is in next weeks report it tells us what production level was reached for Model 3.
The only way to reverse the trend or at least cauterize it to stop the bleeding is in next weeks report it tells us what production level was reached for Model 3.
I'm assuming that institutional investors have sold a significant portion of their holdings, in order to avoid further losses, and make their Q1 numbers look decent. Hopefully this means they will buy back in April 2nd.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I remember when it was exciting see the stock price get up to $2^8. Now it is just a good entry point for someone who wants to double their money as it goes to $2^9 in a few years.
bdy0627
Active Member
I'm thinking the same thing. If they want to make outsize gains in Q2, hello TSLA. At this valuation, how can they lose? That is, if they can get past this resurgence of the thesis that TSLA is about to go bankrupt.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I could be wrong but if looking at 2Y chart, we went from $250 to $290-$300 area very quickly, it made sense that there was a lot of back and forth happening around $290-300 recently, then when it broke below $290 it went through $270/280 down to $250-260 very quickly. However looking at Q1 2017, there was a lot of back and forth around $250-$260 area, so I think it will take some time to break through this range. Given that the Q1 delivery report is only 2 trading days away, and if it comes out as we expect it should shatter the FUD about M3 ramp and Tesla's financial stability, I'm hopeful that the current range will hold up for few more days of short attack.
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Some shorts are starting to cover. My Loaned out shares just got returned to me on fidelity. Take it for what you want
After falling so deep and hard, Tesla is expected to have a dead cat bounce tomorrow or for the next few days
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Lets not get fooled into thinking this dip is a macro dip like Feb 2016. The FUD about M3 delivery, bankruptcy, etc are all target at Tesla. Shorts just used the macro to amplify the effect, along with the Uber autonomous accident and Tesla HW101 fatal crash timing. As Tesla approaches M3 mass volume production and financial "escape velocity", I think Tesla opponents know this is one of the last chances they may have to derail Tesla's missions. Their effort will only grow more desperate. Investors need to hold on and let Tesla deliver.
We are close to the same price as Feb 1st 2014, when Tesla was selling just a few Model S vehicles (No X, 3, solar, or battery storage, and no Gigafactory 1 and 2). WTF?!?
Buy and hold for the last 4 years hasn't worked out too well.
Buy and hold for the last 4 years hasn't worked out too well.
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