TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[lascavarian]

Several times EM reiterated the focus is on driving toward an affordable $35k car. Margin suggested at 15%. Market does not like this. Market wants to see maximum profit. Premium product with premium price. Apple is not lauded for making a low priced iPhone but for their pricing power. Pricing power is what drives multiples.

If Tesla dropped the $35k product the stock would pop.

I agree with EM due to climate change concerns but financial markets don’t care IMO. My investment is climate related.

 

[neroden]

The Needham analyst expects ZEV sales to decline... anyone know how this could happen? Is it because other manufacturers are starting to make their own BEVs?

They're making just enough to comply with the ZEV regulations. "Compliance cars".

 

[sauce]

Agree, the best quarter of all time and all you get is an 8% pump. It's still nowhere near where it was pre Tweet.

There's context to this I believe. The market in general is a bloodbath so for many, the 331$ last evening was a signal for profit-taking where as with other titles they're getting beat-up. Strategies will differ so not surprising this is going on. I was fully expecting a dip below 300$ this morning, especially with the classic 9:40 short attack.

 

[Lucky_Man]

Is there a way to like this more than just one time? Totally agree, the horn s..s..must have a chirp or ping or simple blip option, it's literally all on fire engine or nothing at all.

Just add a bit of logic that chirps when the right turn signal is activated at low speed?

Moderator - feel free to move this post/suggestion to wherever you think it fits best - Ron

 

[GaryW]

I can't speak for anyone else, but my view has always been that a good Q3 result won't make volatility go away because Tesla's opponents will insist that it was a one-time thing or a manipulated result. Q4 will make it much harder on them, making them purely result to theories of demand erosion, Tesla killers, and a belief that GF3 is a myth. Each quarter that passes will erode these theories.

So long as Q3 remains volatile, one should still sell on highs and buy on lows, on the premise that there will always be someone to FUD/short it down if it gets too high.

Completely agree. I think more shorts misread this. My favorite headline this morning? Tesla’s success proves GM stock is a good value.

 

[Artful Dodger]

$310

 

[juanmedina]

keyword: long term

 

[X Fan]

It's not just that Tesla had a good Quarter. It's that everyone else is having a bad year. Every other auto manufacturer (except Ferrari) is trading near the bottom of their 52-week range. The writing is on the wall, and even Wall Street is recognizing this.

View attachment 346855

Amazing that a School Bus Company's PE (Blue Bird) is second highest behind Ferrari.

 

[GaryW]

Ugh, no thanks. Esp. re: Branson (I have a quote on another forum, "If there were an antonym to 'Elon Musk', it would be 'Richard Branson'"). I want an ambition-free attention-averse non-controversial academic with only nominal independence.

Or maybe a ficus.

I want a trained, media savvy communicator with passion. I vote Zach Shahan.

 

[Lucky_Man]

yes, gordon johnson was on bloomberg accusing them of accounting irregularities.

no backup, no citiation, no facts, just accusations.

how the F is that ok?

he’s a lying piece of dog crap

(and you think i’m harsh, but again, how is this kind of stuff allowed?? it’s not even ‘gamesmanship’. it’s outright lies)

Seems to be a popular theme today - lying, that is. Wonder why...

 

[KarenRei]

I want a trained, media savvy communicator with passion. I vote Zach Shahan.

Zach's always A-Okay in my book.
Just stay away from Fred Lambert

 

[tivoboy]

Worked example:
Alice buys at $300. Price goes down to $250. Alice gets depressed.
Alice sells at $250, for $50 loss. She can claim this on her taxes. Stock has great earnings, goes up to $310. Alice wants to get back in.
Alice buys at $310, triggering the wash sale rule. She can no longer claim the $50 loss.
HOWEVER Alice records the cost basis of the purchase as $360: actual purchase price plus the $50 wash loss.
Wait one year.
Alice sells for $500, and only pays tax on $140 of capital gain, not the $190 it would normally have been.

So you're right, but she could have chosen to sell a day earlier to make the whole transaction still short term. She'd get the full value of the tax loss on the $50, but also pay the income tax on the other $140. Which is worse?

Some people make stupid decisions because of tax law. I can't remember where I first heard this, but I live by it:
"Don't let the tax tail wag the income dog."

To answer the question, it really depends on how many and if she/he have other ST gains. and ultimately other LT gains. The wash rule will clear on the new position after a month - yes, it will be carried forward on the transaction.

Ultimately, best would be use the ST loss to offset ST gain (taxed as OI) and pay as little as possible on the LT gains.

If I'm doing ST and know I'm doing ST (like today, I'll buy and sell maybe five times just to make 1-2% each time) I'm doing it all in tax advantaged accounts to reduce that risk entirely.

As for the overall, I'd probably sit on the ST loss and wait it out. Unless one thinks we're off to Mars right now. I think the market doesn't see this going to 420$ soon enough, let alone 350$. I don't think anyone is going to be missing the boat. We'll see.

 

[tivoboy]

Several times EM reiterated the focus is on driving toward an affordable $35k car. Margin suggested at 15%. Market does not like this. Market wants to see maximum profit. Premium product with premium price. Apple is not lauded for making a low priced iPhone but for their pricing power. Pricing power is what drives multiples.

If Tesla dropped the $35k product the stock would pop.

I agree with EM due to climate change concerns but financial markets don’t care IMO. My investment is climate related.

Its funny though, most analysts I've read and hear today on BBTV, CNBC, even FOX of all places think ASP's will remain well above 42/45K for at least a year.

 

[tivoboy]

Just add a bit of logic that chirps when the right turn signal is activated at low speed?

Moderator - feel free to move this post/suggestion to wherever you think it fits best - Ron

Nice idea, I'd be fine with an alternate input. Seems the contacts and mechanics of the current horn mechanism probably cant handle something different. Okay, not market.. understood.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Some smart traders out there today: let the profit taking occur and the short sellers grind it down, and then go to work.

 

[SteveG3]

True, but even accounting for the ones who are just lying there's still an astounding amount of ignorance. I mean, you'd think the liars would come up with more plausible lies, even.

look how emboldened with BS messaging our politicians can be when they have Fox or CNN covering for them

when it comes to Tesla’s mission, it’s not Fox or CNN giving cover to your BS... it’s nearly all the media. obvious nonsense not challenged anywhere (but say, clean technica) & they know it... thus even more emboldened in how blatant the nonsense is than even most politicians.

it’s basically “the emperor has no clothes” but he kinda owns just about all the media, so damn fine clothes they are... you’d have to be a lunatic to think otherwise.

(ie, “yeah right... Fox & NYT & Reuter’s, AP, Forbes, LA Times, Bloomberg, ABC, NBC, CBS, NPR, CNN, PBS, ... ALL biased. no, that’s just ridiculous. makes more sense that you are part of a cult and I heard about that cult on...”)

 

[Sancho]

And to top off a great day, I just picked up my M3. White/white. A beauty. Seat much more comfortable than MS and MX. I haven’t even driven it off the lot yet. I’m just blissfully enjoying the dawning of a new era.

I bet it drives well.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Are people just making millions of dollars on these mid-morning dips? How long has this been going on reliably? Feels like more than six months.

 

[Vitold]

Just one quarter. The real test will be once the sales are not subsidized with the amount of rebates that are currently in place.

Loss of 3.5k in rebates will be nicely counterbalanced by new Grohmann battery pack that is cheaper and foreign sales.

By the time the rebate goes to $1750 SR will be bringing profits from sales to buyers who do not qualify for full 7k rebate anyway.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If Tesla now has access to low-interest local debt at the site of it's future Gigafactories (make it a requirement in the bidding process) then what's to stop Tesla from using, say, half a billion dollars per quarter in a share buyback program? You know, to swallow up the bullshit shorting?

Tesla isn't *obligated* to grow at max possible rate. But it is essential to thrive. That'll be better for the planet longterm.

Anyone ? Bueller ?