TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[jelloslug]

I see what you're saying, but WRT something like Model 3 and Model Y drivetrain--if they share the same design (and Tesla saw little need for improvement), Tesla would just copy the Model 3 drivetrain equipment over for the Model Y.

It's not nearly that simple though.

 

[Zaxxon]

Tesla just registered 535 more VINs. Would be cool if they're using that to send a message that 535 is their current daily production level (that would be 3,745/wk).

 

[Todd Burch]

To be fair, I did say "it would be cool". Which is very different from "I think" .

 

[Todd Burch]

Woke up, saw the tweet, scraped together whatever dry powder was down in the cracks to buy 3 more shares.

I got a really nasty image in my head when I read this.

 

[SunCatcher]

It's nice that Elon has giving us timing guidance on the upcoming short squeeze - now I'll need to regularly look out for any news that Boring Flamethrowers have shipped!

Speaking of flamethrowers, the mother of all flamethrowers is rolling out to the pad in Florida. The SpaceX Falcon 9 is fixing to throw some flame. That's what Elon is talking' about! "Let's roast some shorts!"

Elon Musk on Instagram: “Falcon 9 Block 5 rolling out to the launch pad”

 

[shrspeedblade]

I got a really nasty image in my head when I read this.

LMAO!

I can assure you the reality was much more mundane, involving a PC and the swapping of some funds. Heck, I even threw on some clothes first!

Ok, Elon, light 'em up!

 

[Mike Smith]

'Tesla Is a Loaded Gun,' Says Analyst Ferragu

 

[EinSV]

'Tesla Is a Loaded Gun,' Says Analyst Ferragu

Speaking of loaded guns (or powder kegs) .....

Interest rates at Fidelity are up this morning to 1.75% from 1.625%, suggesting that net short positions continued to increase in the past 24 hours. So shorts apparently are not covering, but instead continuing to double down as Tesla ramps up production and heads toward profitability and cash flow positive.

Not surprising at all. I need to head to the store this weekend to stock up on popcorn for the next 6-12 months.

 

[bambam4171]

I wonder how long it takes for the shorts to start complaining about Musks Tweet "Oh and uh short burn of the century comin soon. Flamethrowers should arrive just in time." being grossly unfair

 

[TradingInvest]

Seems to me the march to trillion dollar market cap is about to start. I will hold my shares tight and continue to add with new cash. Will not be happy with 100% or 500% gain. I will sit on the shares until Elon sell most of his shares.

 

[mikevbf]

I'm waiting for Elon to post a video of demolishing a pair of Tesla shorts with the "not" flame thrower. As style suggestion, I would suggest Tesla write WARNING HIGHLY FLAMMABLE in large print on the rear end and in small print wear at your own risk.

 

[ProtomanX]

Bought more stocks at 288. I have a feeling in the near horizon, more chinese investor like tencent will invest in tesla once their China factory is announced

 

[jhm]

The importance of conversion rate, as claimed by the bears, is irrational. I understand the premise: if we could find out how many reservation holders want the standard range, no options, skeletal Model 3 of $35k, and how many want other options, we could calculate the average selling price (ASP) of the original 450.000 reservation holders.

The argument fails however, as the current conversion rate (in the sense of: how many reservation holders that were invited to configure, have actually bought the car?) provides no information at all about the ASP. People who wait to configure could be waiting for standard range battery, with the options package and EAP/FSD, or they could want the full option LR version with white interior, or they want the performance version, et cetera.

The only relevant 'conversion rate' would be: how many reservation holders have cancelled their reservation and asked for their deposit back? But we know from the CNBC Model 3 factory tour that this happens very little, and there are more new reservations than cancelled ones every quarter.

Considering the above: the second question Elon ignored regarding conversion rate was in fact useless, illogical and a complete waste of time. The question showed that either the analyst didn't understand why his question was bull*sugar*, or that he maliciously wanted a quote from Elon to spin into more FUD.

Great post. I would had that that in Q1 customer deposits grew to $985M, up 15.3% over prior quarter. Clearly demand is very strong and growing. The $131M increase is the equivalent of 131k incremental Model 3 reservations or 262k Powerwall reservations.

Yes, customer deposits of $985M is a current liability; however, the only potential down side would be a refund without a sale. But this is clearly not happening as sequential growth has been 15% The upside of this $1B current liability is that is converts into more than $25B in sales revenue.

Even if customer deposits were falling (working through the backlog), Tesla has many levers to pull. For example, it could begin producing dual motor or performance versions of Model 3. It could simply place more Model 3 demo cars in stores. It could push for Tesla Semi deposits. It could launch Model Y. It could hype just about any future product. Right now, however, Tesla is very low key on future product pushes. In spite of that, customer deposits are still growing 15% q/q.

Perhaps the short answer Musk should have given is, "Oh, yeah, customer deposits are up, like, $130M this quarter. So let's go to YouTube for a more astute question."

 

[Cosmacelf]

Bought more stocks at 288. I have a feeling in the near horizon, more chinese investor like tencent will invest in tesla once their China factory is announced

Yes, this DOES seem like a probable thing to happen. I think an investment and factory announcement will occur concurrently.

 

[RobStark]

That leaves me wondering why the other automakers, who did the exact same thing dozens of times are needing 3 years or more for a completely new production plant.

Legacy automakers grow unit sales at 3% per year in the best of circumstances. They don't have back orders of 450k plus units.

They are not incentivized to go fast.

Tesla is growing at 50% plus per year.

Tesla is incentivized not only to go fast but start producing product in partially built factories.

 

[DurandalAI]

Your question doesn't relate to what you quoted from @neroden, but anyway, there's a motive to do that (shifting deliveries to preserve the tax credit) which doesn't often occur to people... altruism. Tesla will sell all they can produce, whether the credit is in place or not, and they don't get the money, so there's nothing in it for Tesla. But there are people who will be driving a safer and better car, because the tax credit helps them buy it.

While the tax credit won’t make a difference in number of units sold, I think it will make a difference in ASP. For instance, I want standard range battery with Autopilot, in blue. That’s $41,000. The tax credit will let me get AEP and then pay for FSD. No tax credit, and I won’t get FSD.

That said, if I think SR battery will be delayed by too much for me to get the full tax credit, I may go for LR with PUP and forgo AEP until later.

 

[DurandalAI]

Yes, this DOES seem like a probable thing to happen. I think an investment and factory announcement will occur concurrently.

Well, if I were them, I would increase investment, THEN announce the factory, unless you anticipate a dip to come from the announcement.

 

[TradingInvest]

I would say Elon knows what he is talking about. Position your account correctly.

 

[Mike Smith]

Speaking of loaded guns (or powder kegs) .....

Interest rates at Fidelity are up this morning to 1.75% from 1.625%, suggesting that net short positions continued to increase in the past 24 hours. So shorts apparently are not covering, but instead continuing to double down as Tesla ramps up production and heads toward profitability and cash flow positive.

Not surprising at all. I need to head to the store this weekend to stock up on popcorn for the next 6-12 months.

Based on his behavior I assume Musk actually wanted more shorting. If you want a 'short burn of the century' you need to pile in as much wood as possible.

 

[jhm]

Elon's twitter storm regarding TSLA stock is indeed in full swing.

Funny comment:

Marek Cyzio: "My forecast is - it will go down and then it will go up and up and up and up and up."

Elon Musk: "Exactly"

Exciting times ahead.

I like to think of this quarter as MaxQ.