TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[tinm]

No mention of the NTSB/NHTSA investigation opened after a Tesla crash w/ a fire truck, while the Tesla had autopilot engaged?

I think that might be why stock is down today.

 

[Todd Burch]

One step forward two steps back..

Based on the share price now compared to a few weeks ago, it seeems it's two steps forward, one step back...

 

[Richgoogol]

Based on the share price now compared to a few weeks ago, it seeems it's two steps forward, one step back...

Well that's very true. It's all about perspective. But I guess I had high hopes for an ATH before the earnings release, but who am I kidding, most people probably expect it to suck. It most likely would not happen now, $360 is probably as high as we go before earnings.

 

[Todd Burch]

No mention of the NTSB/NHTSA investigation opened after a Tesla crash w/ a fire truck, while the Tesla had autopilot engaged?

I think that might be why stock is down today.

I think many of us are getting numb to that, because AP has usually been found to be off...but probably also

Well that's very true. It's all about perspective. But I guess I had high hopes for an ATH before the earnings release, but who am I kidding, most people probably expect it to suck. It most likely would not happen now, $360 is probably as high as we go before earnings.

I think we have a few more months before ATH.

 

[Zaxxon]

I think we have a few more months before ATH.

Agreed. Remember, Tesla just pushed the ramp back again not too long ago. I think we'll see ATH and beyond when we're no longer looking at which pockets of the US have had Tesla-owning 3/31-4/1 reservation holders invited to configure, but rather nationwide floodgates opened to all owners and early reservation holders, with vehicles being delivered by the 2,000+ per week.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Just got invited to configure. I’m a CA Model S owner, but didn’t reserve until 2017. I must be behind the vast majority of CA owners, so it’s a good sign (if highly inexact) of the ramp making progress.

 

[bdy0627]

Agreed. Remember, Tesla just pushed the ramp back again not too long ago. I think we'll see ATH and beyond when we're no longer looking at which pockets of the US have had Tesla-owning 3/31-4/1 reservation holders invited to configure, but rather nationwide floodgates opened to all owners and early reservation holders, with vehicles being delivered by the 2,000+ per week.

That would be my guess as well. Conservatively, perhaps late March/early April to hit that production level. The market may not wait quite that long to bid TSLA up though. There should be signs there for the market to run with. With that in mind, I could see a higher run happening several weeks before that easily. But, you never know.

 

[avoigt]

It looks like a new batch went out. This time we have people included who are owners and did make reservations in 2016 and '17. That indicates we are moving up ...

Second Wave of Pre-orders live now! • r/teslamotors

 

[mickificki]

It looks like a new batch went out. This time we have people included who are owners and did make reservations in 2016 and '17. That indicates we are moving up ...

Second Wave of Pre-orders live now! • r/teslamotors

 

[ggies07]

Ha! It's only happening when a bunch of us non-owners are getting them....

 

[AlMc]

Ha! It's only happening when a bunch of us non-owners are getting them....

It is really only happening when Tesla is producing 3-5K model 3s/week regardless of whether the recipient is a current owner or non owner.

 

[HG Wells]

Is it time?

Should we go to the basement and find what dry powder we still have. Or should we take all the jewelry from the wife to the pawnshop! Or is it now time for both?

Rumors rumors rumors. We hear rumors saying that large numbers of model threes will arrive in the next few days! We hear rumors (with evidence) that existing owners are receiving emails even if they reserved in 2017.

All of this points towards a significant increase in production.

Is it real? Or is it just a dream.

NOT advice in any way, shape or form.

 

[BornToFly]

Is it time?


All of this points towards a significant increase in production.

Is it real? Or is it just a dream.

NOT advice in any way, shape or form.

Based on VIN numbers, I don't think the ramp has increased beyond 1k/week. I've been burned before by being too optimistic. I just think a lot of people are waiting for AWD, smaller battery, non-Premium interior, etc.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Is it time?

Should we go to the basement and find what dry powder we still have. Or should we take all the jewelry from the wife to the pawnshop! Or is it now time for both?

Rumors rumors rumors. We hear rumors saying that large numbers of model threes will arrive in the next few days! We hear rumors (with evidence) that existing owners are receiving emails even if they reserved in 2017.

All of this points towards a significant increase in production.

Is it real? Or is it just a dream.

NOT advice in any way, shape or form.

History suggests that it is folly to predict when production will take off and TSLA will rise.

The Model S launch was followed by about 10 months of intense speculation and uncertainty. The ramp didn’t really have effect until May 2013.

Model X, as many here remember, was even worse: hardly any volume for 6 months, and substantial quality problems for some time after. TSLA was in a slump for much of 2016, and it wasn’t until 2017 that the production process stabilized and the stock started going up.

With Model 3, the ramp feels about the same speed as Model S, but with much higher quality. My general sense is that the build quality and component tolerances on Model 3s thus far has been far superior to the S and X.

All of this being said, I don’t think timing the market perfectly is likely. My general stock strategy is to simply invest what I am willing to lose, and try for a good return, not an optimal one. My experience over the past 20 years is that I cannot ably determine lows and peaks.

 

[Papafox]

* Shorts traded 64% of TSLA today, nearly 2/3 of all shares.
* TSLA ran up about 70 cents in after-market trading today
* the upper bollinger band is above $360 now

Translation: It has taken the shorts a lot of effort to push TSLA lower. If macros allow, TSLA is showing signs of heading for the green and reclaiming lost territory this week.

 

[bdy0627]

* Shorts traded 64% of TSLA today, nearly 2/3 of all shares.
* TSLA ran up about 70 cents in after-market trading today
* the upper bollinger band is above $360 now

Translation: It has taken the shorts a lot of effort to push TSLA lower. If macros allow, TSLA is showing signs of heading for the green and reclaiming lost territory this week.

Interesting and definitely not surprising. Makes you wonder if the after hours rise is due to shorts as well - covering for some more mayhem tomorrow? It doesn't seem very frequent that TSLA draws a big red candle as a one and done though. Too much short interest currently. Traders and weak longs may be getting spooked at this point. That's certainly what the shorts are hoping for. I think I would be cautious about adding here.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Alright, I made some major adjustments to the spreadsheet. Here's how it looks like if Elon waits until Jan 2028 to exercise all 12 stock option awards.

View attachment 275365

assumptions:
1. outstanding shares go up 3M from current 169M by time Tranche 1 is met
2. outstanding shares go up by 4M between tranches (includes Elon's stock option grant, employee stock plans, and cap raises)
3. Tax rate is 50%. Assuming taxed as income and includes federal and california state taxes.
4. Elon's "net" is value of stock received because he has required 5 year holding period after exercising option

You are looking at what Elon will take home or tax liability. As share holder did you consider how much of this is tax deductible? Tesla will have a huge tax bill once this is exercised. Earnings will be hit due to more tax paid. Thanks to the just passed tax bill. No more sporting box tickets to employees also.



Tax Effect for Tesla . We will not be entitled to a material tax deduction in connection with the CEO Performance Award. In most cases, companies are entitled to a tax deduction in an amount equal to the ordinary income realized by a participant when the participant exercises a nonstatutory stock option and recognizes such income. However, Section 162(m) of the Code limits the deductibility of compensation paid to our Chief Executive Officer and other “covered employees” as defined in Section 162(m) of the Code. No tax deduction is allowed for compensation paid to any covered employee to the extent that the total compensation for that executive exceeds $1,000,000 in any taxable year. Under Section 162(m) of the Code, as most recently amended in December 2017, we expect that Mr. Musk always will be a covered employee for purposes of Section 162(m) of the Code. Therefore, in any given year in which Mr. Musk exercises all or part of the CEO Performance Award, we will be able to take a tax deduction of only $1,000,000 or less, regardless of the amount of compensation recognized by Mr. Musk from the exercise of the CEO Performance Award.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

At least we know production is still happening. (This VIN just got assigned)

Highest Production VIN seen (PICS only... please.... :-))

 

[EinSV]

At least we know production is still happening. (This VIN just got assigned)

View attachment 275642

Highest Production VIN seen (PICS only... please.... :-))

And a TMC member who just configured today reported VIN 59XX is scheduled for delivery on 1/30 (six days from configure to delivery). No recent VIN assignments?

 

[srius]

Based on VIN numbers, I don't think the ramp has increased beyond 1k/week. ...

Elon and Tesla are great at putting situations in positive perspectives. It appears to me that the 1k/wk run rate refers "only" the Fremont M3 production line. The GF1 M3 battery packs production rate was below that at the end of 2017.