Any data to support that statement?
My interpretation is that the 1k/wk rate on all lines phrasing was written specifically to include GF module/ pack assembly. Especially since it was the known bottleneck.
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Any data to support that statement?
My interpretation is that the 1k/wk rate on all lines phrasing was written specifically to include GF module/ pack assembly. Especially since it was the known bottleneck.
No, I don't have any public info to conclude that battery production rate was below 1k/wk. The closest public info we got is from two posters with inside GF info in electrek discussion board: GF1 was still hand assembling M3 battery packs until the end of the quarter. Some packs were probably also from the automated line, which was turned on close to the end of quarter.
I just read the press release again. I suppose it's debatable whether "each of our manufacturing lines" includes the battery pack production lines or not.
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... During Q4, we made major progress addressing Model 3 production bottlenecks, with our production rate increasing significantly towards the end of the quarter. In the last seven working days of the quarter, we made 793 Model 3's, and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3's per week. ...
bdy0627
Active Member
Just to be clear, I don't think there is any definite indication that we are at a steady production rate of 1,000/week. The statement from the investors meeting suggested that TSLA would be there by the end of January. If TSLA does actually get to a steady production rate of 1,000/week by the end of January, they are ahead of my Q1 ramp expectations by 2-3 weeks. I agree with those who are saying that Tesla focuses on putting the best spin on production that they can via the wording. Is there any other way to assess the Q4 production language? As investors, it's important that we understand this and don't assume too much from it. Best to be conservative with any assumptions, which means that we may not yet be at steady 1,000/week production.
Krugerrand
Meow
Didn’t say otherwise but plenty of people still don’t know that he’s not.
Can we stop peeing in each other’s cornflakes now and move on?
Krugerrand
Meow
Mission. Without a doubt. The incentives simply coincide with the mission and how he sees it coming to fruition. Yes, I’m saying Elon wrote this new compensation package. Without a doubt it’s got to be largely his doing.
"As investors, it's important that we understand this and don't assume too much from it"
you're own this stock at a $60B market cap... you should expect 10k to come quick and easily as they originally described and immediate action on the construction of new factories. anything less than that is catastrophe. I can not understand how 1k/wk by the end of Jan is satisfactory for any of you.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
About the same number of people didn't know he is motivated to control Tesla.
Yeah, I can.
Encouraging to hear VIN 59xx will be delivered this month. Maybe Tesla will hit their goal of 1000 cars/week by end of January.
Update: VIN #6396 just reported (Model 3 VINs surpass #6000 as ramp continues)
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It will be interesting to see the InsideEVs January numbers. Even with the 800ish "in transit" from q4, I really don't expect more than 4k M3 deliveries. Possibly less. Having said that, depending on Bolt ramp M3 could take the #1 spot. Irrelevant in the long term, but could help set the narrative.
I get my tax refund in March, to buy some more. Please delay further good news, thank you.
Reciprocity
Active Member
You seen to think that production delays matter. I recall a certain assertion that the stock would drop 10% because of the production miss in Q4 and pushing 5k back to Q2. The stock has risen over 10% since that call. What you fail to understand is the real goal is 5K/w, going to 10K is all but automatic because it's based on mostly duplication. It will still take time because robots must be installed, configured and tested. But it will be based on the success of the existing 5k/w line. Because the model Y is based on the model 3, they could start producing prototypes on the original model 3 line and making modifications to allow the same line to produce both vehicles. Investors seem to understand that 5k/w is attainable and that going from 5-10-20k/w is going to be more about scaling then inventing anything new. Both vehicles will use the same packs and the majority of the same parts. No completion is ready for this. No ICEv will get 130mpg and look as sexy. Competitors will not have battery supply to build 500K-1M cars per year. With S/X that is about 100GWh of batteries. I know your assertion is that no one wants EVs and you can't possibly be wrong because well you are never wrong right... "Next stop 270", "this stock will be down 10% after this report".
It should be clear to anyone with a brain that EVs are the future and battery tech by 2020-21 at the latest will be in par with ICE power trains in terms of cost while being much, much more reliable and durable. Many very large car markets are looking to ban ICEv sales. Norway, the beacon of Europe is showing the rest of Europe how it's done, the rest will follow and even Germany has shown double digits growth for Tesla deliveries.
Once Tesla hits 5k/w, it will announce 2-3 new factories to implement the 5-10k/w lines and the battery lines from the gigafactory and solar tile lines from gf2... And so on and so on like an unstoppable Juggernaut funded by model 3 revenues and model Y and pickup reservations and so on and so on.. like and unstoppable Juggernaut... Cars will deliver themselves with FSD and the Tesla network will kill Uber in months and so on and so on like an unstoppable Juggernaut... Tesla solar powered mega and Superchargers will become larger energy producers then most countries and Tesla micro grids will displace Nat gas and coal on the grid while Tesla roof tiles and powerwalls will be in every new home.. And so on and so like an unstoppable Juggernaut.
What your are witnessing today is that market didn't agree with you and it believes the story is true and it does because the story is true. Just one example, Tesla built the largest battery on the planet in 100 days and it's earning upwards of a million dollars in just a few days. The $50m setup will pay for itself in less then a year or two and still have 8 years of peak performance before any batteries need replaced, which will undoubtedly be cheaper. Yes Tesla lost money on this project, but it was the proof of concept that billions and billions of dollars was waiting for. It's proof that a massive battery can stabilize a grid and kill out dated and expensive and wasteful techs. That money is going to shift like a giant unstoppable Juggernaut.
It's all happening right in front of you.. And yet you can't see it. Got any stock price predictions because I could stand to make a ton of cash doing the opposite?
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
If a pilot crashes, nobody queries him on whether he had autopilot on or not
bdy0627
Active Member
I would guess north of 3,000 but less than 4,000 Model 3 in January.
dc_h
Active Member
Closer to 4000. We’re at 2 weeks and 4 days of production, after week one shut down, and about 3000 VINs from 2017. Expect vin 7000 before 1-31-2018.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Don't forget the plant was shutdown for the first week of January.
Id say 2800 built in January but 3200 delivered.
Id say 2800 built in January but 3200 delivered.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
As of yesterday, second Model 3 is at Santa Barbara waiting for me to pick up. VIN 39xx
Given that earnings are now on Feb 7th. I think Tesla will need to have a concrete production rate for Jan, prior to earnings (should show at least 1K/week). Also, if the recently produced M3s( the ones with higher VINs) are delivered locally, we might see higher numbers for Jan ...
Krugerrand
Meow
I disagree. He’s stated multiple times publically his intentions as CEO and also after CEO to continue to remain in control of Tesla, making day to day decisions particular on engineering endeavors. But he’s also shown repeatedly his control, the examples too long to list. If someone doesn’t know that then they haven’t been paying attention and they deserve what they get.
On the other hand he’s not specifically ever stated he’s not motivated by money. That’s a conclusion based on other things he’s said and done or hasn’t said and hasn’t done.
Of course he is motivated by money, at least indirectly. He knows he needs lots of it to get to Mars.
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