mach.89
Member
3523 on May 18th, so I think that was the highest we’ve seen. But I expect(hope?) to that number hit its alltime record in a couple weeks. Still awaiting next batch of VINs to help with this expectation.
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3523 on May 18th, so I think that was the highest we’ve seen. But I expect(hope?) to that number hit its alltime record in a couple weeks. Still awaiting next batch of VINs to help with this expectation.
Yeah I noticed that too, several "opinion" pieces from the usual suspects. And I didn't mean this was the sole catalyst, just one of several indicators. Their number today was not the highest (that was over 3,500 in mid-May), but it shows the rate increasing steadily over the last few weeks. Looking forward to the end of June!
jhm
Well-Known Member
Indeed, CATL will be riding the IPO hype cycle for a while. Part of the hype will be that CATL gains from the Big Boys entering the EV market. So what was once Tesla FUD becomes CATL hype. But shorts will have to attack high valuations of CATL. So investors will be comparing Tesla/Panansonic to CATL. To say that CATL is over priced as an EV battery maker, they'll have to argue that it is pricier than Tesla/Panasonic as an EV battery maker. Thus, CATL FUD could become supportive of higher valuations of Tesla. One obvious gain for all EV battery makers is that aggressive EV growth expectations will be normalized as investors focus on which players can roll out the most capacity with lowest cost and highest performance in battery products. This is a race we absolutely want to have.
BTW, I'm still pulling for Tesla. I think it will become clear that Tesla is very well positioned across the entire EV and battery supply chain. There is absolutely a place for CATL to sell batteries to OEMs, but the whole EV market will become so huge that there is plenty of room for all kinds of players to do very well.
Not only that, I think to remember that @vinvin218 commented several weeks' ago that CATL batteries quality was low, at least as of now. Of course there's a huge market for low quality batteries.
I cannot help but imagine, in several years' time, BMW/Daimler customers complaining about range quickly degrading in their EVs and all sorts of situations revolving around crappy batteries. But I may be wrong...
Do BMW, GM and Nissan have as good an environmental control of their battery packs as Tesla? While everyone seems focused on battery production and cost, isn't the pack assembly and quality what gives Tesla an additional advantage over the EV and energy battery competition?
MartinAustin
Active Member
Not to mention Porsche, who don't need to worry about longevity of their 800V/350kW batteries because their products are marketed as statements of wealth. My P85 has 3.1% degradation after 145,000 miles.
Great start for TSLA today! I think a lot of the weak shorts are clearing out. There's just too much good news and not enough risky news right now.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Sold all my short term options at 330. I think Q2 Model 3 deliveries are going to significantly disappoint the market. VIN assignments still haven't picked up since the May shutdown, and only 3 weeks left in the quarter so not much time for things to change. Downward revisions from Tamberrino et al will probably be coming in the next week or two. Still holding mid-term and leaps.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I disagree. Likely the 5000/wk number (or close to it) will get announced just as soon as the Q2 numbers, and I think the former will outweigh the latter.
Mike Smith
Active Member
I think the former is known and and the latter is unknown. Downward revisions to q2 will come before word of 5k/wk being achieved. Bad for short term.
edit: Also 5k/wk being achieved on time is not a sure thing.
cgiGuy
Active Member
Only bad thing is Enterprise is buying bare bones models, with no AP enabled, and speed limited. Still better than an ICE, though.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I'd love to see the market try to sort out who makes the better battery at what price. My perception is that so far Tesla is not valued well for the quality of battery that it brings to market. Much more discussion has revolved around the cost of the car relative to ICE vehicles. But more sophisticated investors will care about who makes the higher quality battery that truly supports the residual value of EVs.
But on purely on the price dimension, note that BNEF has been forecasting 2025 as the year when average battery pack cost falls to $100/kWh (when it becomes cheaper to build a BEV than a comparable ICEV). They have noted that average decline of pack cost is 20% per year, but have failed to note that at this rate the average price hits $107/kWh in 2020, five years earlier than their 2025 projection. As CATL blazes along its hype cycle, they too will be on a fast track to sub-$100 batteries, even if they have to go with lower quality to get there. So Tesla hits sub-$100 by 2019. Maybe CATL gets there by 2020 as well. This will put pressure on all other battery makers to stay in the race. Before long BNEF will have to bump up its 2025 target to 2022 or earlier. This will create the perception that EVs are really accelerating (despite the fact that they have been growing very fast all along). So what I see here is an explosion of investor interest in all names that look to win in the acceleration of the EV market. Remember that EVs have the potential to take over a multi-trillion auto industry plus a huge chunk out of the multi-trillion dollar oil industry. Tesla investors have known this all along, but most other investors believe that this is really along way off. They might even believe the 2025 BNEF target and think that it is too soon to invest deeply into EVs. But as that date is bumped up to 2022 or earlier, this will shake up expectations. Suddenly it is no longer a sensible idea to wait on the EV sidelines for some magic technology to arrive. My view is actually that sub-$100 batteries arrive in 2020. If correct, I think most investors will be blindsided and playing catch up. So I am looking forward to a pretty rapid upward reappraisal of the EV market. And Tesla stock at $330 is still a damn good vehicle for riding this wave.
When Enterprise rotates the fleet, the new buyers may very well purchase EAP at a 1k premium over at-configuration price.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Maybe AP could be enabled as a per rental upgrade. Suppose the rental customer can pay an extra $10/day for AP. Enterprise and Tesla split the upgrade something like $3 to $7. All this requires is software switch that Enterprise can flip on. Of course, if this rental upgrade proves profitable for Enterprise, they could buy the full upgrade and not have to share revenue with Tesla whenever they enable it for a customer.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I think Q2 delivery # low is mostly known, the theory that Tesla is stashing M3 to stay under 200k US sales has been widely discussed and not a secret. And the current slow VIN assignment pace confirms that hypothesis also. I expect Tesla to crank the VIN assignment dial back up in < 2 weeks, in the last week of June, to schedule as many deliveries as soon as July starts. I think this and the announcement of 5k/wk will more than cancel out any negative sentiment around low Q2 delivery #.
Mike Smith
Active Member
I wouldn't over-estimate what the market knows. Remember what happened last quarter - we all knew q1 deliveries would be bad but tsla tanked when it was confirmed even though 2.5k/wk was nearly met. If we get downward revisions in the next week or two shorts will jump all over it.
That said I still own a lot of calls as short as August and September, I just sold all the really short term.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
OK if you have short term calls, it's defintely good to err on the cautious side. I'm all in shares and LEAPS (both J19 and J20), so I'm not too worried about these short term fluctuations. I think even if there is a dip due to low Q2 delivery, it should bounce back by early Aug. We may get a positive surprise on M3 margin since the market will have low expectation based on the low delivery #, and also we will have China GF announcement.
Runarbt
Active Member
still more juice left to squeeze ... staying put .......
We havent seen any squeeze yet imo. This is more like a hug - same as previous climb from 30 to 300. Its been a while - that was one sweet ride.;-) (Haven't cashed out any yet)
Another 2-3 weeks and we may reach a new ATH, and from there - steady climb 1-2% a day in average for a few months - Then we might trigger a squeeze. But from 500 to maybe 1500 ;-)
If no squeeze - we will find a steady place around 4-500 for a while - until Y, Semi, Truck etc.
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Hope weak longs won’t regret that they got out at 330 today.
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