TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ZsoZso]

Was it just me or was the TMC website unavailable for about 20 minutes? Thought maybe you guys kicked me out for a minute...

That was just Mark B.S. trying to DDOS the site so less investors see the news about 5k/week reached and issue buy orders Monday morning!
Guy has gotta try everything to protect his short position...

 

[SebastianR]

Was it just me or was the TMC website unavailable for about 20 minutes? Thought maybe you guys kicked me out for a minute...

Yes, was offline for a while...

Aside from this: AWESOME news about the 5k - this means Q3/Q4 results with a small (and then a bigger) profit / positive cash flow is close and we might see the massive short position unravel pretty soon...

 

[RABaby]

Wow, amazing spin-master effort to present this somehow as a negative!

A few samples:

At each level of production when word gets out that Tesla has achieved a higher level of output, the critics insist it is burst and for show and can't be sustained. And then Musk announces a higher production level and the critics repeat their claim that it can't be sustained.
So now that they achieved 5,000 in a week, there is again the claim that it can't be sustained.

The difference is that this is not a burst rate of 700 or so that extrapolates to a weekly rate of 5,000 but an actual rate of 5,000 achieved - even if is deemed by some to be technically only 4950 or in seven days. The point is that the critics could extend their argument ad infinitum and insist that the burst or weekly rate of even 50,000 a week can't be sustained, especially since it involves multiple plants which could each experience failures along the way.

There is always the insistence by those who either want Musk to fail or need Musk to fail to proclaim his pronouncement of success as a flim flam. Let's not forget that the naysayers said he couldn't sustain 1,000 a week, or a 2,500 a week, or 3,500 a week, so of course he can't maintain 5,000 a week. As long as the shorts refuse to acknowledge they were wrong at any stage, they deserve to lose more and to suffer incredible pain with the loss.

There is no group more deserving of pain and suffering than vocal TSLA shorts, with the exception of those who advocate for incarceration of children ripped from the arms of their parents.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

View attachment 313790

Looks like Bloomberg expects another factory shutdown - or they expect around July 4th a slowdown due to vacation-taking ?

 

[SebastianR]

The difference is that this is not a burst rate of 700 or so that extrapolates to a weekly rate of 5,000 but an actual rate of 5,000 achieved - even if is deemed by some to be technically only 4950 or in seven days. The point is that the critics could extend their argument ad infinitum and insist that the burst or weekly rate of even 50,000 a week can't be sustained, especially since it involves multiple plants which could each experience failures along the way.

Come on my friend - clearly the 100k Model S/X that were produced last year is an unsustainable burst production example, am I right?!? /s

Look at it this way: in 2012, 2013 and 2014 the argument was that demand was "unsustainable" and that clearly the demand for the Model S will crater very soon. Just search the many threads on TMC for examples of bears arguing that.

Any change that Tesla did was seen as "unfair cheating to artificially stimulate demand".

I guess with +400.000 folks that put 1000 USD down to get in line and buy a Model 3 this argument is dead.

However, bears are not creative: what you describe is the exact same argument for production capability. And just look how people cried foul over the brilliant idea to create a sprung structure (aka tent) and have another GA there - that's "clearly cheating" on Tesla's behalf isn't it?

tl;dr: be prepared for more FUD around any measures to boost production and be prepared to at least one more year of claims that whatever level of production they achieved is not sustainable...

 

[RABaby]

Come on my friend - clearly the 100k Model S/X that were produced last year is an unsustainable burst production example, am I right?!? /s


tl;dr: be prepared for more FUD around any measures to boost production and be prepared to at least one more year of claims that whatever level of production they achieved is not sustainable...

Oh, I'm prepared. I have been in big since 2013 and all in since 2014 and I'm retired, but I live with risk. My net worth fluctuates significantly with TSLA movements, but I accept it. I have no problem with opportunistic shorts because they are trading like any other person playing the market. My enthusiasm to see shorts suffer extreme pain is all focused on the vocal, vitriolic, and dishonest group that want to destroy Musk or the planet. I don't bet people on what will happen because one's position in the market is the real bet and I believe I picked the winner.

On the other hand, I do have some calls and sold some puts so shorter term results do matter a bit. But my experience with options was unfortunately very successful my first time out and convinced me that either I was a genius or it was incredibly easy to earn millions in months. What I subsequently learned at great cost is that I am neither a genius nor that options are easy. But that is an entirely different thread.

 

[wipster]

Come on my friend - clearly the 100k Model S/X that were produced last year is an unsustainable burst production example, am I right?!? /s

Look at it this way: in 2012, 2013 and 2014 the argument was that demand was "unsustainable" and that clearly the demand for the Model S will crater very soon. Just search the many threads on TMC for examples of bears arguing that.

Any change that Tesla did was seen as "unfair cheating to artificially stimulate demand".

I guess with +400.000 folks that put 1000 USD down to get in line and buy a Model 3 this argument is dead.

However, bears are not creative: what you describe is the exact same argument for production capability. And just look how people cried foul over the brilliant idea to create a sprung structure (aka tent) and have another GA there - that's "clearly cheating" on Tesla's behalf isn't it?

tl;dr: be prepared for more FUD around any measures to boost production and be prepared to at least one more year of claims that whatever level of production they achieved is not sustainable...

Yep, plenty more coming. Skeptic, Maurer, Anton, et al, have the rest of the day to get their FUD together (if they haven't already). I bet at least 10 on just SA tomorrow.

 

[dc_h]

Looks like Bloomberg expects another factory shutdown - or they expect around July 4th a slowdown due to vacation-taking ?

I’m sure they need a slow down and to update some line systems. They’ve been making real time changes on the line and probably lots of optimization opportunities. They can’t be all hands on forever.

 

[Lessmog]

Was it just me or was the TMC website unavailable for about 20 minutes? Thought maybe you guys kicked me out for a minute...

That was just Mark B.S. trying to DDOS the site so less investors see the news about 5k/week reached and issue buy orders Monday morning!
Guy has gotta try everything to protect his short position...

Well, if you believe it is HIS short position ...

 

[TNEVol]

From Bloomberg on China tariffs www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-01/trade-war-is-giving-bmw-ford-and-tesla-a-whiplash-in-china

 

[Tslynk67]

Tesla reaches Model 3 production milestone and record 7,000-car week total production, says Elon Musk

 

[wipster]

Tesla reaches Model 3 production milestone and record 7,000-car week total production, says Elon Musk

Who likes short shorts?

 

[Tslynk67]

Can't wait until 10:00 tomorrow (that's NASDAQ pre-market opening time here in central Europe)

 

[Krugerrand]

The link presents most of the material but doesn't include all that is on the actual pdf.
I think TSLA longs would find it amusing. At the bottom of the report is the actual pdf and it includes this text:

For June 2018 the fund was down approximately 13.8% (no that is not a misprint- please see the paragraph below) net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 0.6% while the Russell 2000 was up approximately 0.7%. Year-to-date the fund is down approximately 16.2% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 2.6% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 7.7%. Since inception on June 1, 2011 the fund is up approximately 67.4% net while the S&P 500 is up approximately 134.7% and the Russell 2000 is up approximately 113.7%. Since inception the fund has compounded at approximately 7.6% net annually vs 12.8% for the S&P 500 and 11.3% for the Russell 2000. (The S&P and Russell performances are based on their “Total Returns” indices which include reinvested dividends.) As always, investors will receive the fund’s exact performance figures from its outside administrator within a week or two; meanwhile I continue to waive the annual management fee until the entire fund regains its highwater mark.

The fund was absolutely massacred this month, and it was primarily due to our large short position in Tesla, to which I added on each new piece of negative news, much of which was indicative of the kind of outright fraud (see below) that would immediately send a “normal stock” into a death spiral, and yet for most of the month Tesla’s stock kept levitating. So here’s what I’ve done about it: I slashed our common stock short position to approximately 15% of the fund from a much larger size and then put approximately 12% of the fund into far less volatile January 2020 put options (as nearly all the luxury EV competitors will be in showrooms by 2019) with a strike price of $210. Then in light of recent whistleblower stories (see below for more detail) and the potential for a fast Tesla death spiral as it may be under a Wells Notice (also see below), I put another 0.30% (30 basis points) of the fund into an array of near-term (out one to three months) put options that will pay off hugely if a TSLA stock crash is imminent.

Those of you in the fund have been extremely patient with what has been absolutely abysmal performance over the past 18 months, and I completely understand if any of you want out. “Thanks” to the current valuation bubble the fund has great liquidity independent of our awful performance, as only one of our positions is an illiquid microcap. On the other hand, although the fund is now down nearly 27% from the high-water mark set at the end of 2016 (FWIW, Buffet’s Berkshire has had two 50% drawdowns— the only way in which I don’t seek to emulate him!), if I didn’t strongly believe we will once again significantly exceed that high-water mark I wouldn’t just offer a “no hard feelings” redemption—I’d mandate it and go find another line of work. But I’m not going anywhere-- I think the ideas expressed through the positions in the fund are good ones and that eventually we’ll make a lot of money on them. And with that, I now return you to our regularly scheduled monthly letter…

The informality of how he addresses his clientele is interesting.

 

[avoigt]

Tesla reaches Model 3 production milestone and record 7,000-car week total production, says Elon Musk

Thats awesome!

EM “Not only did we factory gate 5000 Model 3’s, but we also achieved the S & X production target for a combined 7000 vehicle week!”

 

[MartinAustin]

Elon Musk on Twitter

7000 CARS!!!

(a run rate of 364,000)

 

[EVMeister]

So that puts to bed fears that they were diverting resources/vital production equipment to the Model 3 line at the expense of the Model S and X production.

 

[gaswalla]

Ha ha.. 7000!

 

[Remus]

Congratulations to us all!!! 7000 in 7 days!!!!

 

[GBleck]

Burn baby burn! Hot dam 7k in 7 day!
Should put model 3 just around 5000 +/-