TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[YasB]

Without commenting on your personal, analytical skills, I think the media can spin any news from Tesla and Elon Musk into something negative - and how exactly the market will react to such spinning is hard to say, but it hardly helps the SP.

Yes, of course that's possible. But i think it's a mistake to assume, that the majority of the 30+ million shares short is in the hand of retail guys. I also think it's unlikely, that more professional investors - be it hedge funds or institutions hedging their long positions, care a lot about daily newsflow. I'd assume they are a bit more carful when it comes to position size, risk adjustment and so on. That said, i think Tesla stock (or rather simple greed) will tear apart some more bears and bulls in the coming months ... The fast dip to $250 and the recovery over the last weeks was pretty impressive.

except that Elon has already communicated profitability in CQ3

I'd assume that Longs tend to believe him and Shorts continue to doubt his statements, is the main reason that this company is so polarizing.

 

[tivoboy]

I'd assume that Longs tend to believe him and Shorts continue to doubt his statements, is the main reason that this company is so polarizing.

the thing IMHO that makes trading this company so interesting but also challenging, is that there are a NUMBER of internal levers that can be manipulated in various ways, that are still opaque to the external market participants - Analysts, equity buyers, funds, etc.

And they are being pushed and pulled by a pretty talented puppet master.

 

[UrsS]

Are there any numbers available for Tesla Energy? Power Walls sold/ordered? Roofs, large storage orders/sales???

 

[RobStark]

Would love this, but going 2170 in S and X requires design update. The cells are larger and the floor would need to change.

It has been reported by several sources that the 2170 cells can fit inside the current battery pack case.

No, I don't have links. It has been a while since the new sized was announced and people looked into it.

The internal configuration would need to change though. It would not be a plug and play direct substitute.

 

[jhm]

Yes, this will probably work, since we will exclusively focus on deliveries and completely ignore run-rate and production numbers. We are also unable to do this substraction-thing, so we won't even know, how big the gap between production and deliveries is. That is why we will be completely surprised by Q3 delivery numbers. None of us has heard about the tax credit, so we won't be able to assume that they may keep Q2 deliveries artificially low. That's why most of us will probably go 'All-in' right after the Q2 report, so we can lose everything, when Tesla surprisingly reports a profit in Q3 or Q4. We would never have assumed, that Tesla has been pulling costs forward into Q2, reduced CapEx, hoarded ZEV credits and slowly raised production numbers and margins. All the Shorts will be dead by late 2018 ...

It's a pity.

So long as we're on the same page. Yes, this is pretty much how the FUD narratives will play out in search of a greater fool to be stuck holding the bag.

But no, not all short will be dead by late 2018. The dumb bears will be slaughtered. The smart ones will short again at the top of the squeeze. They will also continue their propaganda to enlist a new generation fools to be their stooges through the end of the next bear cycle. Shorts are absolutely not going away.

Smart bears lie to dumb bears all day long, and the dumb bears actually believe that Tesla will fail.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Hmm, if I'm looking right, Tesla is currently the 3rd biggest global auto manufacturer by market capitalization, having passed both GM and Daimler this week:

 

[tivoboy]

Are there any numbers available for Tesla Energy? Power Walls sold/ordered? Roofs, large storage orders/sales???

basically no.

 

[jhm]

IF Elon is correct about short positions exploding, holding dry powder seems extremely risky.

Couldn’t we see a run up before?

I'm assuming a serious long already has a substantial long position and is already positioned to gain from a run up. The question is piling on now with whatever powder one has in reserve or waiting opportunistically for higher volatility to open up lower prices in the future. This is why I issued a "last call for $330 shares" a few days ago. A long should have gotten in by that point, in my view.

 

[tinm]

Hmm, if I'm looking right, Tesla is currently the 3rd biggest global auto manufacturer by market capitalization, having passed both GM and Daimler this week:

View attachment 313053

So if my math is correct TSLA needs to pass $1100/share to get past Toyota. Looking forward to THAT.

 

[mongo]

Would love this, but going 2170 in S and X requires design update. The cells are larger and the floor would need to change. Maybe not a full redesign, but significant. Not impossible, but would be shocking. If they dropped SX price based on 2170 cells and ramped production up to 120k or more, it would be huge combined with profits on the 3.

It has been reported by several sources that the 2170 cells can fit inside the current battery pack case.

No, I don't have links. It has been a while since the new sized was announced and people looked into it.

The internal configuration would need to change though. It would not be a plug and play direct substitute.

Quickie overview while waiting for the inverse of the last 4th of July's market action...

2170 is only 5 mm taller than an 18650. The 3's pack design only has connections on the top of the cell, whereas the S/X pack has connections on top and bottom. The extra bottom space on the S/X plus reduction in top side connection clearance can make up for the 5mm taller cell. Going with fewer module frees up area for packaging which, combined with more kWh per cell, could eliminate the double stack at the end of the 100 kWh pack.

 

[TheDoktor]

It has been reported by several sources that the 2170 cells can fit inside the current battery pack case.

No, I don't have links. It has been a while since the new sized was announced and people looked into it.

The internal configuration would need to change though. It would not be a plug and play direct substitute.

“Several sources” maybe. It was, however, explicitly stated by Tesla on the Q4 call that the S and X can not accommodate the 2170 cells. Listen to the call again or read the transcript.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Quickie overview while waiting for the inverse of the last 4th of July's market action...

2170 is only 5 mm taller than an 18650. The 3's pack design only has connections on the top of the cell, whereas the S/X pack has connections on top and bottom. The extra bottom space on the S/X plus reduction in top side connection clearance can make up for the 5mm taller cell. Going with fewer module frees up area for packaging which, combined with more kWh per cell, could eliminate the double stack at the end of the 100 kWh pack.

Not to rain on your parade, but Elon himself has answered that question on an earnings call or some other occasion (too lazy to google it now). Going to 2170 would require major re-design of the vehicle so not feasible now. Definitely sometime in the future, but not now.

Having said that, I don't assume that the S/X cell chemistry will not (has not?) gotten all the improvements that went into the 2170 research. I think it is being gradually improved as well so should get many of the benefits of the M3 pack. (Not all, as the pack architecture and the cooling and the casing will probably stay as is).

 

[DocZ]

Apologies if this has already been touched on but an observation I just noticed. Tesla opened up Model 3 config to basically everyone now....lots of people placing orders in the final week of June means an extra $2500 per person on the books in Q2. Will likely have a significant impact on final numbers.

 

[jelloslug]

How do you know the configuration?

The dual motor cars have a different VIN letter in the 8th position.

 

[AudubonB]

Hmm, if I'm looking right, Tesla is currently the 3rd biggest global auto manufacturer by market capitalization, having passed both GM and Daimler this week:

View attachment 313053

That news was soooo $353 ago.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

I am unsure if this is even possible, but what if the timing of the federal tax credit expiration has prompted Tesla to hold back several thousand M3s in Q2 (apart from the Canada exports)?

This could cause the Q2 deliveries to appear artificially low - which the market could interpret as confirmation of unsurmountable production issues with the M3, causing a significant SP dip.

I invite everyone to argue against this line of reasoning.

"So-Called Reasoning," I'd say. And my argument: "No Duh."

 

[ggr]

Yes, of course that's possible. But i think it's a mistake to assume, that the majority of the 30+ million shares short is in the hand of retail guys. I also think it's unlikely, that more professional investors - be it hedge funds or institutions hedging their long positions, care a lot about daily newsflow. I'd assume they are a bit more carful when it comes to position size, risk adjustment and so on. That said, i think Tesla stock (or rather simple greed) will tear apart some more bears and bulls in the coming months ... The fast dip to $250 and the recovery over the last weeks was pretty impressive.



I'd assume that Longs tend to believe him and Shorts continue to doubt his statements, is the main reason that this company is so polarizing.

No, the company is polarizing because it wants to save the world from climate change, and there are very rich and powerful people who don't want to see it succeed, so they mount attacks using false accusations to convince people like you. You are a side effect of disinformation.

 

[MartinAustin]

Hmm, if I'm looking right, Tesla is currently the 3rd biggest global auto manufacturer by market capitalization, having passed both GM and Daimler this week:

View attachment 313053

Obviously due to Daimler tanking after the diesel cheating situation. Wouldn't be surprised if TSLA and Daimler jostle for 3rd place a few more times. All the other manufacturers who are cheating have seen this too, and Volkswagen is only higher now because it was way higher before.

Toyota isn't heavily involved in diesel, I don't think, but I'm sure closing down their hydrogen business will cause them a black eye when that happens.

TSLA has been very bouyant as we approach the end of the quarter. Honestly I think the positive news from Elon and others has been deafening lately. I think there aren't any shorts ballsy enough to start/add positions in this climate. For trading in Q2, we only have today and tomorrow left. There is also the "end-of-quarter window dressing" stuff going on, where in the light of lots of good news, investment institutions want to have their portfolios up-to-date; so some of those could be providing support to TSLA right now. (and into tomorrow)

I was surprised that the Panasonic battery shortfall news was not taken negatively. I.e. not enough batteries could foil Tesla's attempts to ramp up production. Perhaps it is being taken as a positive because Tesla are showing their prowess on the assembly lines?

 

[Curt Renz]

Hmm, if I'm looking right, Tesla is currently the 3rd biggest global auto manufacturer by market capitalization, having passed both GM and Daimler this week:

View attachment 313053

The situation with Tesla is not really comparable with its competitors. The others have huge networks of franchised dealerships that are not counted in the valuations of the manufacturers. Tesla sells and services directly to consumers. The oil industry (including gas stations) greatly benefits from the ICE car industry, yet does not add to the valuations of the automakers. Tesla builds its own network of Supercharger stations, plus solar roofs and storage batteries.

 

[Garlands]

Hmm, if I'm looking right, Tesla is currently the 3rd biggest global auto manufacturer by market capitalization, having passed both GM and Daimler this week:

View attachment 313053

why such a huge difference in market cap between toyota and everyone else? Arent VW's sales about the same?