TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Bobbyducati]

i panic closed a short call 300$ last week after the private announcement for a huge loss, now TSLA is at 30x... figures.

 

[cdub]

With the stock price this low, Tesla has to go private now!

People forget we're just where we were 2 weeks ago and we were in the mid 250s in the spring. It's not low.

 

[hellnoICE]

Colin Langan should have talked to Sandy Munro who reckoned M3 gross margin 30%+. Where does UBS get their "engineers" from I wonder?

 

[Xorbit]

Manipulation? I wouldn't doubt the Saudi's or other large buyers are also shorting the stock to suppress the price so they can trigger selloffs and buy more at below the $420. It has been a deep dip to start and then a slow rise. This is a guess.

Could well be. Financial assets usually do the opposite of what I think they'll do over the short-term, none more so than TSLA. Price is down 8 days running (if we ignore Monday which was more or less flat) and the slope of the decline has begun to accelerate. Near vertical price action is unsustainable and normally happens just before a reversal, as more stubborn longs (shorts) get shaken out. I never short, so as a long I don't like to see price move up vertically with bigger and bigger hourly/daily gains. This is what I'd be thinking right now if I were short.

 

[generalenthu]

While acknowledging that elon is unstable, I want to put forward a theory on why elon did this.

1. He wants more short interest to fund the deal and invites nyt to write a hit piece. This also gets the stock into stronger hands. As a result, there's less that needs to be funded and less that gets given away to the Saudis.

2. The investors probably indicated a max of 420 and more. So how do you make the buyout premium look good?

This is assuming Elon is playing 3d chess. The problem is Elon is a straight shooter and under lot of stress. More likely he just opened up. That said, he might still be aware of the implications of this down leg. We really cant wait to move from Funding Secured to a Board Proposal

 

[Causalien]

All right. Finished buying. Good luck to all longs. This is a pretty significant inflection point at $303 as it was the price of the previous gap with high volume.

 

[mickificki]

Colin Langan should have talked to Sandy Munro who reckoned M3 gross margin 30%+. Where does UBS get their "engineers" from I wonder?

From the NYT of course

 

[adaptabl]

Colin Langan should have talked to Sandy Munro who reckoned M3 gross margin 30%+. Where does UBS get their "engineers" from I wonder?

Maybe Colin has more information than Sandy. Sandy I believe was trying to make headlines to sell his report.

 

[Causalien]

While acknowledging that elon is unstable, I want to put forward a theory on why elon did this.

1. He wants more short interest to fund the deal and invites nyt to write a hit piece. This also gets the stock into stronger hands. As a result, there's less that needs to be funded and less that gets given away to the Saudis.

2. The investors probably indicated a max of 420 and more. So how do you make the buyout premium look good?

This is assuming Elon is playing 3d chess. The problem is Elon is a straight shooter and under lot of stress. More likely he just opened up. That said, he might still be aware of the implications of this down leg. We really cant wait to move from Funding Secured to a Board Proposal

Don't think so. Too complicated and too hard to predict the out come of an interview. There was no way Elon would know how they'd twist the words. And remember the last time Tesla tried to put any restrain on journalist she got all pissy and throw a fit about having gag orders or something.

 

[hellnoICE]

Maybe Colin has more information than Sandy. Sandy I believe was trying to make headlines to sell his report.

Sandy is a professional auto teardown expert. He does this 24x7. Colin is a UBS financial analyst for TRADITIONAL US automakers, auto suppliers, and auto dealers. I can read between the lines.

 

[Causalien]

By the way both long term and short term volatility is back above 80%. Out of the previous months including ER and delivery # report, at no time did both surpass 80%.

Truly epic. To put it in laymen's term. The market is anticipating the stock price to move like a non stop earnings day suspense for a whole sustained month.

 

[MikeQ]

It would be nice if we could get something on the front page of TMC encouraging everyone to tweet Elon some words of encouragement.

 

[Kalllagtunet]

734 inventory cars in Norway!

Tesla Inventory List - Find your next car

The demand story is craking...

 

[ZsoZso]

Don't worry people, we are close to the bottom of the dip. This is the filling-the-gap retrace we were suposed to have after the ER gap-up:

If I remember correctly, some time ago a stock movement pattern was described on this thread, that every time there is a big jump up in an SP skipping some price range in daily candles, then the stock tends to return and "fill" the skipped gap before resuming the upward trend. Sorry if my wording is not accurate. The point is that after last week's ER, we had such a gap between Wednesday close and max of around $300 to a Thursday opening of around $330, followed by a small dip (~$326?) and then rising upto a close near $350. If my understanding is correct, wouldn't that mean that we should expect a retracing to fill the $300-$326 gap before going higher up ?

I do not understand what is the actual mechanism or reasoning behind this pattern, so I would appreciate if someone could explain it.

<TT mode on>
So now we mostly filled to gap, so the SP is cleared for take-off finally.
Next week, new ATH!
</TT mode off>

 

[jelloslug]

Maybe Colin has more information than Sandy. Sandy I believe was trying to make headlines to sell his report.

Sandy literally took every single part back to the processing of the raw material. You cannot get more information than that.

 

[copyhacker]

Sorry folks, turns out this whole thing is my fault. Bought a few shares at $381 right after the tweet last week.
The last time I bought? $375, in early June '17.
FOMO's a beast.

 

[Skryll]

Don't worry people, we are close to the bottom of the dip. This is the filling-the-gap retrace we were suposed to have after the ER gap-up:



<TT mode on>
So now we mostly filled to gap, so the SP is cleared for take-off finally.
Next week, new ATH!
</TT mode off>

So since you knew that, you sold all at peak and are just now starting to rebuy. right?

 

[larmor]

Cars are still being made and sold. Batteries are being made and so are solar panels. All this extra "news" is for people looking to make a profit on sensationalism and instead of actually investing in a company and owning a part of it. Should have gone private years ago.

 

[Ratanpara]

Capitulation point is here, time to buy

 

[Johan]

Cars are still being made and sold. Batteries are being made and so are solar panels. All this extra "news" is for people looking to make a profit on sensationalism and instead of actually investing in a company and owning a part of it. Should have gone private years ago.

I agree in principle. However, if we're being honest, at both $420 or $300 there's more being priced in to TSLA than cars, batteries and solar panels "being made and sold".