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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I found this really interesting. As a board member, he obviously knows more than anybody here and this line:
"Its really going to blow peoples minds just how many model 3s are going to appear in Americas in just the next couple of weeks".
Is VERY encouraging indeed. He doesn't seem as prone to silly exaggeration and over-enthusiasm as Elon, and he obviously knows the real number.

This al;so explains why he is so chill about it, why Elon is so convinced that he doesn't need to care what wall street thinks, and why the board let elon do what he wants. They know something we don't, and I think the upcoming production figures are going to be pretty amazing.

Yep. As another guy who wore cowboys hats (Darrell Royal) was wont to say: "Ya gotta dance with them that brung ya."

Memorable quotes from Darrell Royal during his coaching career
 
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Norway just went over 1000 deliveries in September - they might actually better 17Q3, which would be astonishing given that 18Q1+2 was almost 2x 17Q1+2

Tesla Registration Stats

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What's a blackboard?
In addition to previous responses: It's a mostly deprecated low-bandwidth hardware communications device, usually still in use in conservative university and other educational institutions. Prone to emit hazardous fine-particle dust which can lead to chronic health problems in teaching staff.
 
Norway just went over 1000 deliveries in September - they might actually better 17Q3, which would be astonishing given that 18Q1+2 was almost 2x 17Q1+2

http://teslastats.no

I think we can replicate the "Great September of '17", when Tesla delivered 2006 cars.
We are at 1018 as of today, 7 working days +2 optional Saturdays to go.
Tesla is delivering ~130 cars per days, so that's ~910 cars. Historically you have a couple dozens cars also on a Saturday,
so we'd reach ~2000 cars.
And I'm assuming a steady rate: I remember as much as 200 cars delivered per day in the last days.
 
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Surely there must be a news site - or a Tesla-friendly shareholder group could start a news site- that only publishes level headed information, methodically debunks all the FUD, and knows how to get viral traffic so everyone talks about it. We have owners making Tesla commercials for free, surely there must be one of us invested deeply enough and happens to have the resources and is social media savvy to create a well publicized news source in these days when even MSNBC floods us with fake news.

If shorts can commandeer the likes of MSNBC and Bloomburg, surely there's opportunity for Longs to do the same with honest news on a similar scale.

It's called electrek.
 
so I'm conflicted: my present investment is increasing in value (a good thing), but I need a lower entry point to go all-in on $TSLA so that I can quit carrying about the current stock price (good and good again).

Do I want the stock to continue climbing?

Or do I want it to plummet to "must-buy" levels that will give me better average cost/share?

Last time I asked, I received. Any shorts listening? Got another bombshell to use before we get out of Q3? Or are you saving them for a delaying action in Q4? Do I have to wait for it to crack $300 again? Or are there no more Spartans left?

Sorry, I'm just impatient to be done with stock trades.
 
so I'm conflicted: my present investment is increasing in value (a good thing), but I need a lower entry point to go all-in on $TSLA so that I can quit carrying about the current stock price (good and good again).

Do I want the stock to continue climbing?

Or do I want it to plummet to "must-buy" levels that will give me better average cost/share?

Last time I asked, I received. Any shorts listening? Got another bombshell to use before we get out of Q3? Or are you saving them for a delaying action in Q4? Do I have to wait for it to crack $300 again? Or are there no more Spartans left?

Sorry, I'm just impatient to be done with stock trades.

I’d be perfectly happy with it trading sideways on low volume for a while, so I can load up on calls before the ER.
 
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[discussion that conversion price can be lowered to ~$254... But then observation that in the cc EM said "We expect to pay that off with internally generated cash flow."

That always puzzled me. Why would they use cash to pay that off if they don't have to? Tesla spent a lot of money buying a hedge just so that they could pay off the converts in non dilutive equity -- this is described in the prospectus and in each 10-K.

I wonder if the hedge transaction can be settled either to get non-dilutive equity to use to settle the notes, or can be separately settled to generate cash that is used to pay off the notes. ? Anyone have any informed speculation on that?

How does the hedge work with paying off the notes with internally generated cash flow?
 
The main reason Tesla was in the red for all but two quarters since their IPO was in large part because Tesla chose a hyper--aggressive configuration of these levers to maximize revenue growth and market expansion.

That hyper--aggressive configuration is the once and future ("soon" ;) ) best strategy.

Presumably the real money behind the shorting has been intended primarily to slow Tesla down.

Imagine what will happen when that money concludes shorting is no longer effective in slowing Tesla down...
 
Just noticed allot of analysis have upgraded the Stock to Buy and hold.
New article with some anecdotal data about an impressive end of Q3 Tesla delivery push:

"Tesla Model 3 Delivery Push In Full Ramp Mode"

"It seems that people are going to be floored when they learn how many Tesla Model 3 sedans are being delivered currently."

"Vancouver #Tesla $tsla is delivering Model 3s until 10pm everyday. Demand is insane."


This is true. I have seen atleast 3 full trucks loaded this week only. In the last few weeks I have seen atleast 5 trucks loaded. Only model 3s on board. But before the last few weeks I haven't seen one truck.
 
I mean, is this really the best the shorts have?

Iconic member of Detroit’s old guard says Tesla’s ‘headed to the graveyard’

"Tesla has no ... tech advantage, no software advantage, no battery advantage. No advantages whatsoever."

I get the hands over the eyes and the ears sealed with wax while going "la lalalalallala", but... it just isn't compelling.

The zombie says the living have no advantage over it -- but they seem awfully interested in sucking the life from the living.
 
That always puzzled me. Why would they use cash to pay that off if they don't have to? Tesla spent a lot of money buying a hedge just so that they could pay off the converts in non dilutive equity -- this is described in the prospectus and in each 10-K.

I wonder if the hedge transaction can be settled either to get non-dilutive equity to use to settle the notes, or can be separately settled to generate cash that is used to pay off the notes. ? Anyone have any informed speculation on that?

How does the hedge work with paying off the notes with internally generated cash flow?
It's really the same reasoning as stock buybacks (which some people are advocating for Tesla). If you (the management) believe that the stock is underpriced, better to use the cash than to issue shares which would dilute all shareholders. There is a tradeoff though, for a company like Tesla, the management has to take into account what they could use that extra cash for, and what the ROI would be in the future. The most optimistic thing about them wanting to pay cash is that it means they expect more cash flow than they can reasonably invest in growing the company, so they certainly don't need to raise more. I do believe the statement that Tesla expects to be cash flow positive for the foreseeable future.
 
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