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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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"The New York Times makes 1.7 billion annually". <-- So the NYT doesn't care about companies because they make money.

"...advertising revenue from automakers." <-- Companies that advertise are the source of that money.


Logic?

Add to the fact that the NYT is not a capitalist cheerleader. Their Sunday "business" section is often made up of anti-business articles.
 
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Great question. I was simplifying for that poster's understanding, but I'll give you a different frame.

2.2B in cash
- 900M in restricted cash (deposits can't be used for bond payments)
- 300M due in November
- 500M minimum cash balance
- 900M due in March
= -400M

Tesla has burned roughly 700M per quarter for the past 3 quarters. They need to suddenly start generating 400M in cash to stay afloat, and that's at a bare minimum.

Turning around a company that was burning 700M per quarter and suddenly generating positive 200M per quarter... That's an insanely hard thing to do.

Selling an additional 35,000 Model 3s in Q3 at a 15% gross contribution and an ASP of 60k only gives 315M cash generated - not even half of the gap. (35k* 60k * 15% = 315 million)

And that's just to stay afloat. Nevermind investments in the Model Y, the Semi, the Solar Roof, etc.

You didn’t seem to answer my question? From this explanation, Tesla threw money in the dumpster and set it on fire? I thought they got a production line etc in exchange for the cash?
 
Add to the fact that the NYT is not a capitalist cheerleader. Their Sunday "business" section is often made up of anti-business articles.

The New York Times' readers are going to be super surprised when they start seeing all these Model 3s on the road and Tesla announces they are profitable.

"But the Times said they sucked?!?"
 
Yes, I did...


Maybe I’m lost here and don’t want to go back and check the original post, but I think you said Tesla owes suppliers 2.2b? Do they only get to pay that back with gross margin or do they get to use the entire 60k from each car sold to pay that back and what is left over is after everything is cash flow/profit?

I honestly don’t care that much what an internet troll with no knowledge of Tesla’s internal financials/plans are, just entertaining myself. Still waiting for the answer to the original question, seems I already caught you in a bit of a game of number twisting.
 
The New York Times' readers are going to be super surprised when they start seeing all these Model 3s on the road and Tesla announces they are profitable.

"But the Times said they sucked?!?"

It never amazes me how divorced from reality Wall Street is from Main Street. Exhibit A: a family who runs a random semi-popular Youtube channel (~1m subscribers) having nothing to do with cars happens to get a Tesla Model 3:


Let's check out the comments, shall we? Without snipping any out:


melissa Lovell
Fyrir 22 klukkustundum
I see Jared getting a speeding ticket soon lol


OnCloudCaudill
Fyrir 2 klukkustundum


Bethany Cameron
Fyrir 22 klukkustundum
I had a feeling that you were getting a Tesla after yesterday’s vlog. Sooooo happy for you Jared


Danielle
Fyrir 22 klukkustundum (breytt)
I knew you were getting a tesla! Gut feeling!


My Weight loss Journey
21 hours ago
Jared I love your car it's beautiful and you're right happiness is homemade one of my favorite sayings...


78Angela Petrarca
Fyrir 22 klukkustundum
Now it makes sense as to why the other was missing omg guys u got a Tesla congrats Jared!!!!!


Kenzie Ann 53
Fyrir 22 klukkustundum
It's fun to be a viewer who has watched you guys since BEFORE Jackson and to see where you are now! You both have worked so hard to be where you are today and this is such a proud moment for me as a viewer to watch. Congrats Jared!! :) love you guys!


soraia carvalho
Fyrir 22 klukkustundum
You know that youtube pays well when you can aford a tesla congrats


lexxi foxx
Fyrir 22 klukkustundum
LUCCCCKKKKKYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!! I swear everytime I see a Tesla in my state I literally almost swerve cause their SOOOOOO nice oh my lawdy... but CONGRATZ JARED IM SO HAPPY FOR YOU ❤️


Honest
Fyrir 22 klukkustundum (breytt)
Really happy and excited for Jared but definitely not looking forward for future filled with Tesla clickbaits and thumbnails


Lynette Easter
Fyrir 22 klukkustundum
Jared I love what you said about we don't need "things to make us happy " it should be the memories we make with our family and friends that is so very true!!! Congrats on your dream car and reaching a goal you had set for yourself!!!!! God bless you and your family!! : - )


Lacy Smith
21 hours ago
You do know Tesla's on the verge of going under, right?


Sára Doležalová
Fyrir 22 klukkustundum
I KNEW it when I saw yesterday's video that you are getting Tesla!! I want toooo


Ashley Marie
Fyrir 23 klukkustundum
Morning awesome vlog! You guys should show the boys Halloweentown! Amazon prime video has it you just have to rent it I think your kids would absolutely love it!


Sweetie Road
Fyrir 23 klukkustundum
CONGRATS JARED!!! I am happy for You!!!!


Alice Armitage
Fyrir 23 klukkustundum
The Tesla obsessed part of me is going crazy! Can I come see your Tesla?!


Kimberly Driscoll
Fyrir 22 klukkustundum
Is a Tesla even cool with regular doors


fanny Bonjovi
Fyrir 23 klukkustundum
Ellie and jared colour to! congrats! Im jealous...


Caoimhe Calnan
Fyrir 23 klukkustundum (breytt)
Jared got it the second I realised that the blue car was missing my mind went straight to the Tesla
Crystal GiannoulakisFyrir 23 klukkustundum
I am excited to see this video


clemmons9501
21 hours ago
CONGRATULATIONS! I must say though after listening to the last conversation in the vlog......I believe that you make your own happiness!!! Much Love from FL


Laura
Fyrir 22 klukkustundum
I am in the wrong profession! Congratulations, Jared! And congratulations on your IUD, Ellie!


Dayna Torngren
Fyrir 20 klukkustundum
You’ve become very materialistic in such a short time. Sad.


78Angela Petrarca
Fyrir 22 klukkustundum
So since it doesn’t use gas do u have to like charge it at night???


Taylor Sabella
Fyrir 23 klukkustundum
Congratulations you got Tesla! Love that.


Deidre Koehler
21 hours ago (breytt)
We are a Suburu family, we are getting a new 2019 Suburu Outback as soon as they are out, we have dogs and it is perfect for us and hopefully next year a grandchild!


Jaden Stavish
Fyrir 23 klukkustundum
Woah it looks so cool!

.... etc. You can see it's not 100% positive, but overall, to a large chunk of the public (esp. young people), Teslas are the ultimate MUST HAVE aspirational consumer good. It's not just this one video; I daily keep an eye on public reaction to the appearance of Teslas on Youtube on channels having nothing to do with cars, and I see this same thing over and over again.

Wall Street seriously needs to reconnect with Main Street, or they're going to be in for a rude awakening.
 
Audi reported, so here's the 'final' version of this chart through Sept. I also added the Volvo S60 and Acura TLX just... because.

upload_2018-10-3_8-39-28.png
 
What makes your non-rebuttal so hilarious is that you used the exact same calculation method, using gross margins to estimate Model 3 related cash flows, just two posts ago:



See that 35k*60k*15% calculation? Yeah, that's unit count times ASP times Model 3 gross margin.

Now suddenly, the same basic estimation technique becomes incomprehensible and invalid to you, when the correct unit counts are applied! :eek:

(And yes, by the way, because opex is guided to be flat between Q2 and Q3, see the model run for the details, which makes contributory margins scale up similarly to gross margins, so they can be used to estimate cash flows and as well - but you probably don't even know what I'm talking about, I suspect you are just bullshitting about these numbers?)



Yeah, so you stopped reading after I applied a similar gross margin based calculation to cash flows as ... you did.

Right ... :D

Yeah, what he/she said!

Hope I haven’t made a fool of myself by getting involved in the accounting discussion, but I did draw out the troll a little bit so my boy here could do the heavy lifting. I’ll try to stay in my lane in the future, comic relief.
 
I know the graph is sales and not market share, but the title of the graph is misleading.

Informative post though, not an attack.

It's got both sales and share, although you're correct that it's not the 'true' market share since I'm not including all possible entries in the segment (eg Cadillac ATS with GM reporting quarterly now). I think it's pretty representative of the trend, though.
 
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