TSLA Technical Analysis

[st_lopes]

Today I heard from two coworkers asking what is wrong with Tesla. When is going up I don't hear from them but when it goes down they are the first to text me. I think they enjoy when Tesla goes down; they know I made a lot of money. Lesson learned never talk about your investments with coworkers.

Humans are a flawed species. We take more pleasure in the demise of others than in our own success.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Close to a Key Reversal today. I'm an optimist so I'm going to say it's close enough.

 

[hershey101]

I guess 630 is on deck unless someone knows of a Macro catalyst that will turn things around.
TSLA is moving at a multiple of the indexes.

Very nice call... Reversed right around there

 

[bxr140]

Well, if you're fixin for more drawdown, if we break below 50MA and the conditional TL, the TL you were looking at on my chart will likely provide support, as that will likely ~correlate to 200MA and some pretty healthy price-volume, either in the 690-710 range or the 630-650 range.

Good case study here on layering of technicals to enhance the probability of an accurately identified price event (in this case, a reversal). We did indeed break below the 50MA and the steep uptrend TL, but because the drop was so fast, it overshot price volume at 630-650 but didn't quite get to the next uptrend TL (the less steep one), and in fact turned almost on the dot on the 200MA.

Before I get too pat-on-the-back with myself, I'll also share that I slept in yesterday and didn't buy into the reversal until the high 600's.

On the upside, next up is the downtrend TL formed in the last few weeks, which may also correlate to some degree to 20MA and 50MA, including a 20/50 crossover.

Most interestingly, flipping from Daily to a 1M candle (avg daily vol is ~38M), we can see that we're already at that trend line AND there's a bit of price volume just above current price (highlighted in green), both of which will offer some resistance. If we can push through both and break above ~750, there's a decent short term run up to 780+. Otherwise, its probably back down to ~700 in the short term...

 

[rexmakesbeats]

Technical analysis on Tesla stock for week ending 02/27/2021. As overall market sells off, Tesla crashes to lows of $619 for the week, before recovering. We’ll wait to see how it plays out next week to confirm whether or not Tesla has put in a bottom. If in fact, the market moves higher, Tesla would need to break above $706, then recapture the 50DMA at $775. A break above that would be very bullish and would test strong resistance at $810-$825. On the bear side, if Tesla fails to break above $706, it could retest support at $835. A continued selloff could push Tesla down to the next level of support at $575.

Tesla news this week includes:

• Tesla has made about $1 billion in profit on its Bitcoin investment
• Tesla climbs 5% as Cathie Wood and others buy the dip after a multi-day skid
• Tesla confirms high demand for updated Tesla Model S/X, factory restarts after parts shortage

 

[st_lopes]

A break above that would be very bullish and would test strong resistance at $810-$825. On the bear side, if Tesla fails to break above $706, it could retest support at $835

Assuming you mean 635?

 

[Sudre]

Like last week I don't see any real support from options. Not enough on the table for THEM to care which way this goes. THEY will just increase option selling in whatever direction the wind blows.

MAX PAIN for this next Friday is NOT 760. So don't even bother looking at it.

4000 Calls with a $750 strike out there. That many can sell within hours on a Friday so peanuts.
Those 13K Puts with a $600 strike is a scary place for support.

I am not saying we are going down or up. We need some news to move this in a real direction. What I am saying is WE get no help in either direction from THEM..... What I do find interesting is the lack of Calls with higher strikes. Usually there are more starting to trickle in. Maybe more people are buying shares than they are Calls. There were 5000 Calls with a strike of $900 Monday and they have only moved up to 6000. We have moved up a few thousand in the 800 strike range but not like the strength of the PUTs.

Come on good news!

 

[rexmakesbeats]

Assuming you mean 635?

ahh yes, thanks for catching that

 

[Singuy]

So based on some technicals, QQQ is at a support level (308) that is supposedly the bottom of a A/B/C correction. The dip the past two days is suppose to be the end of the C wave correction which means there should be a bounce back tomorrow or Friday. And if the bounce back have QQQ close above 319 then it's the end of the correction and QQQ will be on a bullish trend. The video below is very educational so take a watch if you are interested.

I follow this guy religiously and he has been a clairvoyant. He tells you what numbers to watch for to confirm one way or another. He doesn't predict the future, but he allows trading algro to confirm the future. This guy haven't been wrong the past 3 months I followed him.

 

[AimStellar]

Good case study here on layering of technicals to enhance the probability of an accurately identified price event (in this case, a reversal). We did indeed break below the 50MA and the steep uptrend TL, but because the drop was so fast, it overshot price volume at 630-650 but didn't quite get to the next uptrend TL (the less steep one), and in fact turned almost on the dot on the 200MA.

Before I get too pat-on-the-back with myself, I'll also share that I slept in yesterday and didn't buy into the reversal until the high 600's.

View attachment 639634

On the upside, next up is the downtrend TL formed in the last few weeks, which may also correlate to some degree to 20MA and 50MA, including a 20/50 crossover.

Most interestingly, flipping from Daily to a 1M candle (avg daily vol is ~38M), we can see that we're already at that trend line AND there's a bit of price volume just above current price (highlighted in green), both of which will offer some resistance. If we can push through both and break above ~750, there's a decent short term run up to 780+. Otherwise, its probably back down to ~700 in the short term...

View attachment 639640

Just want to say thanks for these posts. You've been pretty spot on from everything I've read. Much appreciated!

 

[Curt Renz]

Well there's the set-up for a potential double bottom. Let's see what happens.

That may indeed have been the case. The low on 2/23 was $619.00, while the low today was $617.01. Both of those drew extremely heavy trading volume during the minutes surrounding the bottoms. Both occurred during steep opening hour dives followed by quick rebounds. Such a combination of events often signals that a period of significant decline has ended.

 

[Curt Renz]

10-yr treasury yields spiked up dramatically during Powell's speech. That may have been due to his seemingly only moderate concern regarding those yields, perhaps implying that the Fed won't soon be buying back those bonds. So poof go the Nasdaq and growth stocks like TSLA. Nevertheless, if TSLA rises from here, the notion of a bullish double bottom may still be intact.

 

[st_lopes]

10-yr treasury yields spiked up dramatically during Powell's speech. That may have been due to his seemingly only moderate concern regarding those yields, perhaps implying that the Fed won't soon be buying back those bonds. So poof go the Nasdaq and growth stocks like TSLA. Nevertheless, if TSLA rises from here, the notion of a bullish double bottom may still be intact.

Closing at 620 seems to present a potential double bottom... though I’m not holding my breath after this week of margin calls.

Had to let go of some trading shares so as to keep my puts active.

Covered this weeks calls at 97% of premium. Have not reinitiated for next week yet.

 

[st_lopes]

If this price holds up seems like we have multiple technical indicators supporting a reversal

- inverted hammer on today's chart;
- double bottom yesterday followed by high volume and resistive buying today;
- QQQs bouncing off 297 resistance, looking to close above 309, completing its corrective legs;
- TSLA hitting 1-year RSI lows (Fremont shutdown peak pandemic excluded);

Strong Monday with good volume pushing QQQ past 319 resistance and Tesla back in to mid 600s would be welcomed!

If i hadn't been over-leveraged and getting dinged this week, now holding on to 04/16 850p which are tying up my buying power, I would be converting blocks of shares to leaps next week.

 

[rexmakesbeats]

Technical analysis and news on Tesla stock for week ending 03/06/2021. Tesla continues to tumble touching $539 at its lows. However it did break back into the long term uptrend channel to close out the week. If it can hold above ~$580 it can very well move up to test resistance at $685. If it can break above that level, the next resistance lies at the 50DMA at around $775. BUT, if Tesla continues to selloff next week, we could see it break below $580 and test the 200DMA at around $474.

Tesla news this week includes:

• India woos Tesla with offer of cheaper production costs than China
• Tesla’s share of European EV market reduced to 3.5%
• Elon Musk extremely confident level 5 autonomous FSD will be achieved this year
• Billionaire investor Ron Baron’s firm sold 1.8 million Tesla shares despite saying price will hit $2,000

 

[reardencode]

4 hour TD Sequential 9 buy at open tomorrow. Likely gives us at least a 1-4 candle correction to the upside. Maybe a firm reversal. If we don't reverse here, daily TD 9 buy could hit Friday in the $500 region.

 

[MABMAB]

I'm not buying into any TA patterns for a while.
Me thinks anyone that does is either a fool or selling somethin
TSLA broken, gonna take months to sort things out.
No quick time back to 900.
I'd prefer it just pause somewhere here or higher, let some accumulation happen as retail sells out in frustration, then continue.
But it is just busted up right now.

 

[bxr140]

I'm not buying into any TA patterns for a while.
Me thinks anyone that does is either a fool or selling somethin

Not at all. This is the time where technical analysis can return the greatest results. For instance, the bottom on TSLA was both a) in a demand zone and b) just above a price volume void.

For instance, we are now testing 20MA and a trendndline break. If price keeps going, 50MA is going to be the next area of resistance. If we reverse, the current downtrend line will likely provide support, as will 200MA and the uptrend from August (even though it was recently spoiled it still may layer onto 200MA to enhance probability of support).

 

[MABMAB]

Not at all. This is the time where technical analysis can return the greatest results. For instance, the bottom on TSLA was both a) in a demand zone and b) just above a price volume void.

For instance, we are now testing 20MA and a trendndline break. If price keeps going, 50MA is going to be the next area of resistance. If we reverse, the current downtrend line will likely provide support, as will 200MA and the uptrend from August (even though it was recently spoiled it still may layer onto 200MA to enhance probability of support).

I disagree but welcome your financial proof. Show your account balance, share your trading thoughts, show trades. I don't think it is a time to be a short term trader using TA.

Show me anyone using TA to get the greatest results, the folks I would consider following would avoid this for a long time. It needs to set up again. It needs rest. There are likely other stocks to rotate into play.

I measure volatility using a 14 day ATR, TSLA has been at an all time high with regards to volatility. This suggests safe bets are small bets. Wild swings kill accounts. I don't think there are swing traders killing it now.

 

[bxr140]

I disagree but welcome your financial proof. Show your account balance, share your trading thoughts, show trades.

On 2/23, around $640, I bought a large lot (for me = 40 contracts) of July 1000 calls based on:
1. Confirmation of demand zone from 12/22-12/23
2. Confirmation of the trend line from August (the shallower slope one screenshot above)
3. Confirmation of support from 200MA
4. IV30 jumping out of a "post corona low" trough and IV120 making a step up
5. Confirmation of SPY trend line from 10/30

The decision to go 1000 was primarily because I wanted to limit my downside exposure with lower ∆. That's admittedly a pretty round number; I'm actually working with my trading partner to develop a tool to optimize strike selection so I may not make that same choice in the future.

On 3/4, again around ~$640, I bought 10 June 800 calls across a number of accounts based on:

4. Confirmation of a double bottom from 2/23
5. ~4% recovery from the day low (615)
6. Further rising volatility
7. Confirmation of SPY bottom from 1/19-2/1

The decision to go 800 (and a month closer than above) was because I had stronger conviction based on #4-#7 and so wanted a little more ∆/$.

All total I bought 50 contracts; obviously both entries were too early. Currently the 800's are up ~60% and the 1000s are up 7.05%.


As another example, on 12/29, around $660, I bought large lot (again for me, this time 50x) of July 1000 calls based on:
1. Post-corona volatility coming off a low
2. Volatility speculation going into earnings
3. Speculation on an upside move out of a short term consolidation
4. Speculation on a break out of a short term downtrend line
5. SPY making an ATH

Going DOTM was again to hedge against my speculation with a relatively low ∆. The contracts were progressively stopped out and then purposely closed leading up to earnings at about ~350% profit.


As a final example, on 1/15 I bough another large lot (50x--seems like that's typical for me, but its not) of March $1000's based on:
1. A big down day
2. A big drop in volatility
3. Speculation on consolidation and a subsequent breakout.

In hindsight this wasn't a very sensible trade as it didn't have super strong indicators and was really me just getting greedy. I closed out ~2 weeks later at ~5% profit.

Show me anyone using TA to get the greatest results...

Technical analysis does not live in a vacuum, it is simply a part of what should be a diversified approach to The Market, where 'diversified' is a concept that lives on a very wide spectrum. Because one's methods of analysis, short and long term goals, risk tolerance, etc. all rack up into a very personalized strategy, something like "the greatest results" are meaningless metrics to anyone but that trader. Some folks, for instance, aim to minimize balance drawdown instead of maximizing position profit, and it would be seriously dismissive to suggest those folks aren't going for the greatest results.