Macros: QQQ (ETF for NASDAQ 100)
Am I seeing a double bottom which confirmed?
Am I seeing a double bottom which confirmed?
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TSLA Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass TSLA
ev-enthusiast
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Thanks! I always thought the "golden cross" was for 50MA over the 200MA. But with your post I looked it up, and it's a general term for any shorter MA crossing over a longer MA. So the answer to your question is "Yes!"
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Thanks for posting that! Got me thinking about looking at more than just the daily patterns. So I took the charts out to the weekly pattern.
Looks like TSLA is starting to form a Harami (+) pattern on the weekly charts (I think it's also known as the "inside day" pattern), with a "fat" inverted hammer. So out of curiosity I looked at what TSLA did with this pattern on the weekly charts. I found 9 instances where this two week pattern formed. 8 out of the 9 proved to be bullish reversal patterns. Three of the bullish pattern was only one to two weeks, the others were fairly long. The one that failed and was followed by bearish movements had an extremely long lower shadow, way below the previous week. Fascinating.
If interested, here are the dates:
Wins: 11/18 & 11/25/13; 4/14 & 4/21/14*; 5/5 & 5/12/14; 7/7 & 7/14/14; 10/13 & 10/20/14; 12/8 & 12/15/14*; 1/12 & 1/19/15*; 3/23 & 3/30/15.
Loss: 10/5 & 10/12/15.
*only short run ups in the price.
For the TA oriented, The Harami pattern requires that the following day/period is the opposite color and only the real body is entirely inside the long real body. IIRC "inside day" requires the entire trading pattern is inside the previous day/period.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Still looking like it can be a Harami+ on the weekly period pattern. Daily pattern maybe forming double (?triple) bottom...
I'll be more than happy to see it break the Harami+ weekly pattern with a breakout of the double/triple bottom...
Below is the 4-year Tesla (TSLA) chart ending 2017 JAN 09. The large alphanumerics indicate my suggested endpoints for Elliott waves. It’s nearly perfect, except the trough of wave 4 in the initial 5-wave sequence ideally should not have been lower than the peak of wave 1. If another wave 3 in a potential sequence of 5 has begun, there could be much further to go.
Below is the 4-year Tesla (TSLA) chart ending 2017 JAN 09. The large alphanumerics indicate my suggested endpoints for Elliott waves. It’s nearly perfect, except the trough of wave 4 in the initial 5-wave sequence ideally should not have been lower than the peak of wave 1. If another wave 3 in a potential sequence of 5 has begun, there could be much further to go.
Being a bit of a TA novice I found this Elliot Wave explanation a good one
Elliott Wave Theory
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
So... it's going up?Below is the 4-year Tesla (TSLA) chart ending 2017 JAN 09. The large alphanumerics indicate my suggested endpoints for Elliott waves. It’s nearly perfect, except the trough of wave 4 in the initial 5-wave sequence ideally should not have been lower than the peak of wave 1. If another wave 3 in a potential sequence of 5 has begun, there could be much further to go.
Shouldn't the peak of 2nd 1st wave be higher than the peak of the first B wave?Below is the 4-year Tesla (TSLA) chart ending 2017 JAN 09. The large alphanumerics indicate my suggested endpoints for Elliott waves. It’s nearly perfect, except the trough of wave 4 in the initial 5-wave sequence ideally should not have been lower than the peak of wave 1. If another wave 3 in a potential sequence of 5 has begun, there could be much further to go.
Nice observation, but not necessarily. Potential new cycles of eight waves can be considered independently of earlier cycles. The first waves of new five-wave impulse sequences tend to vary in intensity. It’s the third waves that are key. A third wave should not be weaker than both the first wave and fifth wave. Of greater concern is the earlier noted fact that in the first depicted cycle the trough of the fourth wave falls a bit under the peak of the first wave. I’ve queried Elliott Wave guru Bob Prechter. He responded, “Not sure about the Tesla chart. The overlap between waves 1 and 4 make it suspect.”
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
I'm fairly confident....based on hours of TA study and unicorn pattern finishing school that TSLA, over a long period of time...will either go up or down. The odds of it staying the exact same price for an extended period of time approaches zero....unless the stock price approaches zero, like GTAT (too soon?).
That being said - Curt, thanks for both the analysis, the follow up and the discussion of interpretations and flaws. Very helpful, and some TA advocates may not believe in the exactitude of the TA for wave theory, they may drink the chart pretty.
Just a factual observation on my part; no warranty is implied. In fact I am mostly in cash. Not feeling bullish that this is "the one". I think the real breakout is later in the year.
jesselivenomore
Member
As long as we are not headed back to 180, this move can still be "the one" after consolidating for a few weeks/months, before continuing later in the year.
A month or so? I think it depends on when Q4 earnings are released and what they say. Events can supersede technicals when it comes to timing...
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