TSLA Technical Analysis

[Singuy]

I see a pennant forming over the last month and a half. Higher lows and lower highs converging to a point where one direction has to prevail. If I'm not mistaken, technical wisdom (and my observation) is the direction of the macro trend tends to win out. Since TSLA has been on the macdaddy of all trends this year, I expect another breakout to the upside very soon.

I have watched two different technical analysis on youtube and both are saying Tsla is about to break out and test 458 and if broken, goes to 500.

Them weird calls at 500 probably will be filled because those people never lose.

 

[Congo Line]

I have watched two different technical analysis on youtube and both are saying Tsla is about to break out and test 458 and if broken, goes to 500.

Them weird calls at 500 probably will be filled because those people never lose.

I have seen this pattern called either a wedge or a symmetric triangle. If the outcome follows the 'classic' pattern, then the magnitude of the move (from the point of anticipated breakout, in this case approx where the two converging lines meet around $400) is supposedly the difference between the initial high and initial low of the triangle. If one estimates the initial high as $502 (9/1) and initial low as $330 (9/18), then the move would be $172 (hopefully, in the upward direction!)

If it breaks upward, that implies a target of ~$572. This value also somewhat lines up with the fibonacci 161.8 projection level (~$565, using the 9/8, 9/15, and 9/24 low/high/rebound values respectively).

p.s. - I'm an amateur at this so not investing advice.

 

[Singuy]

I wish I’d waited a bit as well. I ended up with two buys in the 418-415 range. Now I’m in more than I was expecting at this point. It’s starting to look like I was trying to catch a falling knife. Let’s hope PapaFox is right and we’ll have a big rebound on Monday.

Based on technicals (and I'm still learning), after a consolidation wedge pattern, Tesla broke out to a bull trend (more likely) vs a bear trend before Trump's illness was announced Thursday. It was more likely to break out to the bull trend because Tesla was closing at higher highs and above the 20 EMA in the consolidation pattern after an ABC correction. And the fact that we are bouncing off support around 410-413 or so means that it's still bullish. I hear some people see a gap fill down to 386 before the a reversal so if the president is worst and break the 386 level, then it'll be a bear trend on Monday. Any hint of him recovering from this point on at the 413s support, Tesla can potentially break out to 500 according to the analysis.

Please if anyone wants to check this work as I am just summarizing a bunch of people's technical analysis and may not know what I am talking about..lol.

 

[bkp_duke]

Based on technicals (and I'm still learning), after a consolidation wedge pattern, Tesla broke out to a bull trend (more likely) vs a bear trend before Trump's illness was announced. It was more likely to break out to the bull trend because Tesla was closing at higher highs and above the 20 EMA in the consolidation pattern after an ABC correction. And the fact that we are bouncing off support around 410-413 or so means that it's still bullish. I hear some people see a gap fill down to 386 before the a reversal so if the president is worst and break the 386 level, then it'll be a bear trend on Monday. Any hint of him recovering from this point on at the 413s support, Tesla can potentially break out to 500 according to the analysis.

Please if anyone wants to check this work as I am just summarizing a bunch of people's technical analysis and may not know what I am talking about..lol.

I was looking for the same trend, but my understanding was that for a breakout pattern to be established, you need share trade volume to move up markedly. We were still having very anemic trading volumes today.

The wedge looks to consolidate around the $415 to $420 mark, so hopefully we should see that break-out soon.

That's my read, based upon Curt Renz's book that I'm working through.

 

[Singuy]

I was looking for the same trend, but my understanding was that for a breakout pattern to be established, you need share trade volume to move up markedly. We were still having very anemic trading volumes today.

The wedge looks to consolidate around the $415 to $420 mark, so hopefully we should see that break-out soon.

That's my read, based upon Curt Renz's book that I'm working through.

From my understanding, the break out on Thursday was a signal that the trend was going to be bullish out of the wedge. Today at least to the technical traders seem to be a good buy the dip moment to ride the bull trend up next week as it gap fill down today thanks to Covid. Seems like all the people I am following are putting a buy on Tesla right now based on technicals.

 

[woodisgood]

Since the proponents of this max pain BS always crow about it when it gets even vaguely close, I'll point out that today it was worthless. No, it was much worse than worthless -- it was hugely misleading. It's always worthless, but sometimes it's randomly close. Please take this garbage to the TA thread where it belongs.

The whole point of max pain isn't to look it up on a website and trade accordingly. The utility comes in trying to understand WHEN it might apply based on news (or the lack thereof), how the week has been unfolding, and macro conditions. The entire idea is that the stock price is manipulated to that particular target for maximum profit - but not that this happens automatically each expiration. So if you don't have an understanding or even a guess of when conditions are favorable for manipulation, it's utterly useless.

The fact that today had not one but TWO huge pieces of news (one quite unexpected and causing a macro meltdown), it was pretty unlikely maxpain would be in play. When there's volume, and news, maxpain as an exact target goes out the window. That's pretty much the first rule of maxpain.

 

[st_lopes]

TSLA walked down to $411.20 by end of the After-hrs session. The Mid-BB was $410.86 at the Close

View attachment 594898
Hint: Wall St. is Kabuki Theatre played for Elties and with a predetermined outcome. I don't even bother sayin' anymore. People should know by now what the shortzes do...

Hint2: The frick'n Algo's are selling the dip A/Hrs at 5:15 PM now, even w/o news. Self-fulfilling tragedy...

Cheers!

That’s a nice hammer - Monday should be interesting.

 

[Krugerrand]

That’s a nice hammer - Monday should be interesting.

Can you trace the ‘hammer’ for me? I’ve squinted, stood on my head, looked over my shoulder and under my armpit; don’t see a hammer but maybe I’ve got a different style of hammer in my mind. Is it a standard claw hammer, a pein hammer or more like a Thor Mjolnir?

 

[st_lopes]

Can you trace the ‘hammer’ for me? I’ve squinted, stood on my head, looked over my shoulder and under my armpit; don’t see a hammer but maybe I’ve got a different style of hammer in my mind. Is it a standard claw hammer, a pein hammer or more like a Thor Mjolnir?

Thor’s hammer, specifically. One of stronger bullish indicators of a trend/price reversal, until it’s not. Though looking at that 3 month chart there have been a few examples of such a pattern.

Inverted hammer - Wikipedia

 

[Krugerrand]

Thor’s hammer, specifically. One of stronger bullish indicators of a trend/price reversal, until it’s not. Though looking at that 3 month chart there have been a few examples of such a pattern.

Inverted hammer - Wikipedia

Ohhhhh — notes to self

1. Inverted!! Open eyes are a requirement when standing on head.

2. Really, really stretch your imagination when viewing the chart. Think Jesus in profile in toast.

3. Unicorns are not real. Maybe.

 

[Queeg500]

Thor’s hammer, specifically. One of stronger bullish indicators of a trend/price reversal, until it’s not. Though looking at that 3 month chart there have been a few examples of such a pattern.

Inverted hammer - Wikipedia

ooh, I found it. Does this mean I am now a technical trader, so I'm on the wrong forum?

 

[st_lopes]

ooh, I found it. Does this mean I am now a technical trader, so I'm on the wrong forum?
View attachment 594932

Consider yourself banished to the technical analysis thread.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

[...]
The wedge looks to consolidate around the $415 to $420 mark, so hopefully we should see that break-out soon.
[...]

Looks like on the daily chart the SP is still consolidating in that area.

 

[bkp_duke]

Looks like on the daily chart the SP is still consolidating in that area.

Agreed. Would be nice to get some news to break out upward with good volume. Perhaps Q3 financials will be that catalyst.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Agreed. Would be nice to get some news to break out upward with good volume. Perhaps Q3 financials will be that catalyst.

Yes, would love to see a break out upward with good volume on positive news.
Right now SP looks a bit weak on low volume while NASDAQ is up about 1%.
Let's see what the next couple of days will bring.

 

[bkp_duke]

Yes, would love to see a break out upward with good volume on positive news.
Right now SP looks a bit weak on low volume while NASDAQ is up about 1%.
Let's see what the next couple of days will bring.

As others have pointed out in the main finance thread, there is a lot of manipulation of TSLA share price by Money Managers at large banks, especially at low volume. It's not fair, and probably not legal, but it happens and is why (on days with no news) that the share price doesn't always trend with the greater market.

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC - last eveing: Tesla could be on its way to $500, trader says. How to play the stock for upside

 

[rexmakesbeats]

Hi Everyone, I've started making a weekly series of videos analyzing Tesla stock using charts and technical analysis, my price predictions/price targets in the following week, plus a review of Tesla news headlines for the week. Please let me know you guy's thoughts and opinions on my first Episode which premiered today! Any feedback would be much appreciated. I'll be happy to take into consideration any recommendations for improving my content! Hopefully this is informative for any current or new shareholders. Cheers!

 

[MABMAB]

 

[EV forever]

View attachment 597112

For those of us who are technically challenged, can you explain what that means?