TSLA Technical Analysis

[Antares Nebula]

4 hour chart. Looks like a symmetrical triangle, i.e., a pennant flag, which is a continuation pattern (or bear/bull flag). Since the initial move was a drop from 265 to about 225/230, this would then be a continuation of a downside move, i.e. a bear flag.

To calculate the "measured move": 225 - (265 - 225) = 185. Or 230 - (265 - 230) = 195. (Depends where you draw your lines.) If you look on the weekly chart, you can also see a kind of bear flag.

BUT! It's more an art than a science, and only probabilities. The triangle need not break to the downside. Can break to the upside instead. Basically, you have to watch the chart over the next few days. Will likely break this week (or latest) next week.

In summary, be cautious of a potential (though not guaranteed) downside move. (Not advice! I'm not a professional. Trade at your own risk.)

 

[Leo9]

4 hour chart. Looks like a symmetrical triangle, i.e., a pennant flag, which is a continuation pattern (or bear/bull flag). Since the initial move was a drop from 265 to about 225/230, this would then be a continuation of a downside move, i.e. a bear flag.

To calculate the "measured move": 225 - (265 - 225) = 185. Or 230 - (265 - 230) = 195. (Depends where you draw your lines.) If you look on the weekly chart, you can also see a kind of bear flag.

BUT! It's more an art than a science, and only probabilities. The triangle need not break to the downside. Can break to the upside instead. Basically, you have to watch the chart over the next few days. Will likely break this week (or latest) next week.

In summary, be cautious of a potential (though not guaranteed) downside move. (Not advice! I'm not a professional. Trade at your own risk.)

View attachment 440908

I would expect a breakdown today or in the next few days, the general market is looking weak. Need confirmation for a nice trade.

 

[Stars aligned]

After we broke down from the upwards channel, we are now at the long term 230 resistance. The chart also shows a multi month symmetrical triangle, and the SP is over the 50 MA, but below the 20 MA. The volume got smaller again and was yesterday less than half of the average volume.

All this suggests that we are nearing again a pivotal point. A violent movement within the next 10 days is very likely, and odds are that it is rather a downward movement. From a fundamental perspective, it could be purely macro driven. As everyone knows, the situation there is very fragile.

As much as I like Tesla for its long term perspectives, this is not the moment for me to stay fully invested, although keeping core position. Keeping my very small foolish long term calls position just in case of a low probability violent upwards movement but I don't add to them.

Interesting and challenging times. Good luck to all.

 

[Stars aligned]

In addition to my earlier post, some broader market observations. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 form a rising wedge. For illustration, there's a NVDA chart which shows what happened to this stock a few months ago during similar run up.

A negative scenario would be that several factors lead to an earnings recession which make current valuations unsustainable. The current bull market may come to its end. Even though Tesla's fundamentals are improving, a downturn won't let it untouched. But it might rise as one of the first after a meltdown. After all, many positive drivers are expected to play out until the end of 2020. The question in this specific case is whether the market will honor it in advance or take a "show me the money attitude" (as it was with NVDA during the last cycle).

I for one stay cautious.

 

[anthonyj]

 

[Cherry Wine]

I'm guessing we're headed for the lower-BB on the daily -- $215ish.

 

[EVNow]

I'm guessing we're headed for the lower-BB on the daily -- $215ish.

Minimum SP went to after ER was 222. Just $2 above it now. Today SP is down 2% more than Nasdaq for no reason.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Definitely broke down from that symmetrical triangle. But there is still a base of support in 220 - 225 area.

222.25 is the lowest point since the earnings sell off. That's the level to watch.

 

[Leo9]

Minimum SP went to after ER was 222. Just $2 above it now. Today SP is down 2% more than Nasdaq for no reason.

The reason is the technical setup.

 

[Antares Nebula]

I'm guessing we're headed for the lower-BB on the daily -- $215ish.

Could be. But maybe not today. Maybe by Friday or next week. Hard to say at this point. Could also bounce from here and form another lower high at 230 before coming back down again. Stocks do all sorts of crazy things.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Intraday low post-ER has been pierced. :-/

 

[Stars aligned]

Minimum SP went to after ER was 222. Just $2 above it now. Today SP is down 2% more than Nasdaq for no reason.

Noreason has a second name which is higherbeta, especially when the market goes down

 

[EVNow]

Noreason has a second name which is higherbeta, especially when the market goes down

Recently it has been tracking Nasdaq. Ofcourse now its 3% below Nasdaq

 

[Cherry Wine]

Noreason has a second name which is higherbeta, especially when the market goes down

Helped by its buddy moreshorting, I'm sure.

 

[Stars aligned]

As feared, the SP broke below 50 MA, as a result of the whole market breaking down the wedge and a selloff in all stocks with increasing volume. The jury is out how low TSLA and the market will go, but I'm not too optimistic at this point as technical supports like trendlines and MAV's were damaged. As TSLA has a higher volatility, the % loss was higher too, just keep in mind the last 6 months.

Some details on the S&P wedge - the index actually broke out around 4th August if the log chart is used, trended up again but did not cross the trendline again. Of course a new trend line can be drawn now, but still the old is broken which is a signal of weakness.

What is the target for TSLA now? That's up to everyone's guess. If the symmetrical triangle rule holds, surprise, surprise. Won't take you the fun to figure out by yourself.

 

[Antares Nebula]

As feared, the SP broke below 50 MA, as a result of the whole market breaking down the wedge and a selloff in all stocks with increasing volume. The jury is out how low TSLA and the market will go, but I'm not too optimistic at this point as technical supports like trendlines and MAV's were damaged. As TSLA has a higher volatility, the % loss was higher too, just keep in mind the last 6 months.

Some details on the S&P wedge - the index actually broke out around 4th August if the log chart is used, trended up again but did not cross the trendline again. Of course a new trend line can be drawn now, but still the old is broken which is a signal of weakness.

What is the target for TSLA now? That's up to everyone's guess. If the symmetrical triangle rule holds, surprise, surprise. Won't take you the fun to figure out by yourself.

I cannot speak to the rest of the market, and at this point Tesla may even decouple from the market (as it has in the past).

As far a supports, I think we can look to prior levels. 180 - 280 was the previous multiyear range (before we got into the recent 250-380 range). And 180 was about where it bounced in June. It is also approx where the symmetrical triangle breakdown targets (see my post above) and there are some gap fills around there also. So that would be my first support level.

If that fails, then 140ish is next, where it bounced off of in 2016. Also a support at 120 a few years before that.

So, I would say approx 180-200 is the first support range, and then 120-140 is the next.

But I'm hoping we don't hit that second level. Ideally, at this point, (short of an immediate recovery tomorrow) it would be bullish if we can bounce of the 180-200 area a second time (since June) and form a double bottom. That could actually give us momentum to eventually clear 300. Here's hoping!

Not advice. JM2C. GLTA!

(See also discussion in the trading thread if you're interested.)

 

[Stars aligned]

I cannot speak to the rest of the market, and at this point Tesla may even decouple from the market (as it has in the past).

As far a supports, I think we can look to prior levels. 180 - 280 was the previous multiyear range (before we got into the recent 250-380 range). And 180 was about where it bounced in June. It is also approx where the symmetrical triangle breakdown targets (see my post above) and there are some gap fills around there also. So that would be my first support level.

If that fails, then 140ish is next, where it bounced off of in 2016. Also a support at 120 a few years before that.

So, I would say approx 180-200 is the first support range, and then 120-140 is the next.

But I'm hoping we don't hit that second level. Ideally, at this point, (short of an immediate recovery tomorrow) it would be bullish if we can bounce of the 180-200 area a second time (since June) and form a double bottom. That could actually give us momentum to eventually clear 300. Here's hoping!

Not advice. JM2C. GLTA!

(See also discussion in the trading thread if you're interested.)

Sure’ I’ll have a Look there, although I try to avoid trading. On the other hand, a pure buy’n Hold approach can be very painful if the timing is wrong.
The multi month symmetrical triangle actually points to 140 ish if I draw the lines correctly. I only expect to reach this level if there is a broad and deep market sell off.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Sure’ I’ll have a Look there, although I try to avoid trading. On the other hand, a pure buy’n Hold approach can be very painful if the timing is wrong.
The multi month symmetrical triangle actually points to 140 ish if I draw the lines correctly. I only expect to reach this level if there is a broad and deep market sell off.

Oh wow. I wasn't even looking at the multi-month, only the multi-day triangle (see my post above). I really hope it doesn't goto 140, but prepping myself just in case.

No, buy and hold is better. Trading for me is more an addiction (the degenerate gambler that I am). I trade with only small amounts. The vast majority of my funds are in long term positions.

It's just that a lot of the discussion overlaps between these two threads.

 

[Stars aligned]

Oh wow. I wasn't even looking at the multi-month, only the multi-day triangle (see my post above). I really hope it doesn't goto 140, but prepping myself just in case.

No, buy and hold is better. Trading for me is more an addiction (the degenerate gambler that I am). I trade with only small amounts. The vast majority of my funds are in long term positions.

It's just that a lot of the discussion overlaps between these two threads.

You figured it out nicely. While trading is about a couple of hours or days and more some sort of gambling (nothing wrong with that), I'm more following a TA and fundamental analysis approach to recognize pivotal changing points for the SP. In contrast to the trading/gambling time horizon, those appear on a multi-week, multi-month or even multi-year frequency. TA on both TSLA and the market level is the fine-tuning instrument for me.

Buy and hold is fine in a bull market for a bull stock but I find it problematic in a changing or bear market. After all, riding the portfolio value down from a SP of 300+ to 180- and holding is for the hardcore believers only. The idea of my strategy is to let not happen this and increase the number of shares over time. And at some point, without major failure or accident, the SP of Tesla will reflect the company's strength.

But it may be a rocky and long ride till then or the market may suddenly recognize the hidden gem, who knows. I intend to keep posting here when I think it's appropriate.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I'm guessing we're headed for the lower-BB on the daily -- $215ish.

I'm surprised how quickly we got here, and lacked the conviction to profit highly off of the guess. I suspect that there is some shorting going on to amplify some shaken sentiment. Also, the accumulation/distribution line has finally started to trend downward. Will be very interesting to see where we go from here and what new technical formations develop.

I love reading the contributions from @Antares Nebula, @Stars aligned, and others -- and hope you don't stop anytime soon!