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Tsunami update (of hurt)

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I just now checked with my brokerage TD Ameritrade. They do not currently have TSLA shares available for shorting. No, I do not plan to short; I was just seeking information.

I asked TD under what conditions will the brokers be able to lend out my shares to short sellers since they did not directly contact me to lend out my shares. They said that they can only lend out my shares if my cash position falls below zero. i.e. I go on margin.

So my guess is, that a lot of investors who hold tsla shares are plain vanilla investors who believe in the company. Since it's the more sophiscated ones that go on margin.
But now that TSLA gained legitimacy, we have to prepare for a new wave of retail investors who are getting into it for the glory and greed.
 
Up 8% in after hours, I think we could break 100 tomorrow. It's getting tempting to take profit now that I'm sitting on such a big lump...

Yeah, I did that, once. Had 1,100 shares at about $29, sold it at $46 though. "That was a brilliant move"
Not so much... I re bought 300 shares 10 days later at $52, and still have them (and plan to now never sell them).

The point is, if I wasn't so quick to sell the shares I'd be sitting on a cool $56K of paper profit, instead of $19K of "booked" profit and the current $10K or so of paper profit.

Tesla is likely to be your once in a lifetime stock, as Apple and Google have been to their patient investors.
If your in it for a 10, 15 or 20 bagger, my advice is to not sell and ride out the volatility.
How many chances in life do you get like this? If you do sell, consider only selling a portion of your shares.
 
Yeah, I did that, once. Had 1,100 shares at about $29, sold it at $46 though. "That was a brilliant move"
Not so much... I re bought 300 shares 10 days later at $52, and still have them (and plan to now never sell them).

The point is, if I wasn't so quick to sell the shares I'd be sitting on a cool $56K of paper profit, instead of $19K of "booked" profit and the current $10K or so of paper profit.

Tesla is likely to be your once in a lifetime stock, as Apple and Google have been to their patient investors.
If your in it for a 10, 15 or 20 bagger, my advice is to not sell and ride out the volatility.
How many chances in life do you get like this? If you do sell, consider only selling a portion of your shares.
You can do another strategy. Had many shares but hurt two reports ago when loss greater than Expected. Sold 1/4 of stock bought calls for jan. 2015 target 55. Cheap then. With this strategy I already have a 10 bagger and will buy the stock from these options in 2015. The stock is "only" up 2~3 fold. The option 1200% of entire stock and option value. There were days of extreme volatility though needed strong stomach. My only regret was not putting all in options at the time.
 
Hey DonPedro, can we get a tsunamometer update?

LOL, why not:

Total short losses since 26oct12 (since last update 5/10 based on averages of 25% short interest rate and 20 million short interest):


Trading: $2,022 million
Interest paid: $221 million
Total losses from shorting: $2,243 million


During the 11 trading days since the last update on 5/10, losses from shorting have increased by around $693 million ($63 million per day).


I shouldcaution that a lot of averages go into these calculations. If for instance short interest has been different during upswings than downswings, or if it has fallen sharply since the last confirmed figures (23m on 5/15), then the numbers will be off. But I think that the assumptions are actually good enough to get good ballpark figures.
 
I think it is high time for another Tsunamometer update. The July 31 short interest is in, and it shows a 7% increase over July 15!

Albert Einstein said:
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Total short losses since 26oct12:


Trading: $2,893 million
Interest paid: $230 million
Total losses from shorting: $3,123 million

Note that these are only the losses in the common. It is fair to assume a lot of shorting has taken place by means of options as well, in particular during the time when there were no shares available to short. So the Tsunamometer probably underestimates the hurt of the shorts significantly.

PS: For new readers of this thread, the reference is Elon Musk's promise of a "tsunami of hurt" for those shorting TSLA:
http://www.siliconbeat.com/2012/09/...nami-of-hurt-coming-for-those-shorting-tesla/
 
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